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Soybeans:

November soybeans advanced 3.75 cents on volume of 145,456 contracts. Total open interest increased by 773 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. However, the November contract lost 5,724 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bullish). In short, there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the loss in the November contract. As this report is being compiled on September 15, November soybeans are trading 3.25 cents higher on the day. November soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Soybean oil:

December soybean oil advanced 1.06 cents on volume of 97,408 contracts. Total open interest declined by 227 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. However, the October contract lost 3,070 of open interest, which makes the minor decline of open interest much more impressive (potentially bullish). In other words, there were open interest increases in the forward months to offset most of the decline in the October contract.When prices advance, we want to see that longs are in control. As this report is being compiled on September 15, December soybean oil is trading 78 points higher and has made a new high for the move at 33.69, which is the highest print since August 27 (33.54).In order for December soybean oil to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of 32.98. December soybean oil remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.Stand aside.

Corn:

December corn lost 2.50 cents on light volume of 158,596 contracts. Volume was significantly below that of September 11 when December corn lost 4.75 cents on volume of 266,751 contracts and total open interest increased by 11,043 contracts. On September 12, total open interest increased by 5,084 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 30% above average meaning that new short sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower. The September contract lost 267 of open interest, December -193, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on September 15, December corn is trading 1.75 cents higher and has touched the contract low of 3.35 3/4 originally made on September 11. December corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Chicago wheat:

December Chicago wheat lost 7.00 cents on light volume of 62,617 contracts. Volume shrank considerably from September 11 when December Chicago wheat lost 10.25 cents on volume of 83,471 contracts and total open interest increased by 42 contracts. On September 12, total open interest increased by 1,352 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 15% below average. However, the March 2015 contract lost 96 of open interest, May 2015-598, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).On September 12, December Chicago wheat made a new contract low at $5.00, and as this report is being compiled on September 15 has made another new contract low at 4.96.December Chicago wheat remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Kansas City wheat:

December Kansas City wheat lost 13.00 cents on volume of 17,723 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,962 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 325% above average meaning that new short sellers were entering the market aggressively and in heavy numbers and driving prices to a new contract low (5.90 1/4).As this report is being compiled on September 15, December Kansas City wheat is trading 5.50 cents lower and has made another new contract low at 5.85 1/4. According to the latest COT report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 1.51:1, which compares to managed money being short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.78:1. In other words, there are a surplus number of longs holding losing positions who will be forced to liquidate as prices continue to move lower. December Kansas City wheat remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

WTI crude oil:

October WTI crude oil lost 56 cents on volume of 659,712 contracts. Volume shrank dramatically from September 11 when October WTI advanced $1.16 on volume of 952,291 contracts and total open interest declined by 8,580 contracts. On September 12, total open interest increased only 623 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. The October contract lost 12,690 of open interest, which makes the very minor increase of open interest more impressive (bearish). In short, there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in the October contract.

As this report is being compiled on September 15, October WTI is trading 49 cents higher and has made a daily high of 92.87, which is far below Friday’s high of 93.67. As we pointed out in the September 14 Weekend Wrap, the dominant action in WTI From August 8 through September 11 has been liquidation. In this time frame, open interest declined by 24,494 contracts, which is perfectly normal when prices are declining.

A bearish scenario would be if open interest increased as prices declined indicating that shorts were in control. Narratives espoused by the financial press about oil may be bearish, but market participants in WTI are not willing to put their funds into short positions. Additionally, as we have mentioned before, the inversion of the term structure in WTI is not indicating a bearish scenario going forward. October WTI remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Natural gas:

October natural gas advanced 3.4 cents on volume of 249,985 contracts.Total open interest increased by 6,382 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The October contract lost 8,552 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bullish). For the past several sessions, open interest has been acting bullishly characterized by open interest increases on price advances and on price declines, open interest decreases.

The major exception to this occurred on September 11 when October natural gas lost 13.1 cents on volume of 350,676 contracts and total open interest increased by 6,836 contracts.As this report is being compiled on September 15, October natural gas is trading 6.8 cents higher and is made a daily high of 3.952, which is the highest print since September 11 (3.963).In order for October natural gas to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of $3.954. Until this occurs, remain on the sidelines. The 5, 20 and 50 day moving averages are converging. For example, the 5 day moving average is 3.909, 20 day 3.911 and the 50 day moving average is 3.936. In short, natural gas is trading in a solid value zone.October natural gas remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Gold: This will be our final report on gold until we see a trading opportunity or gold generates buy signals.

December gold lost $7.50 on volume of 151,330 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,846 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. As this report is being compiled on September 15, December gold is trading $4.30 higher and has made a daily high of 1239.2, which is below Friday’s high of 1242.30. December gold remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Silver: This will be our final report on silver until we see a trading opportunity, or silver generates buy signals.

December silver advanced 7 ticks on volume of 47,821 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,643 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above average meaning that liquidation was heavy on the essentially unchanged close. December silver made a new contract low at 18.455, and as this report is being compiled on September 15 has not violated Friday’s low. December silver remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

10 year Treasury Notes:

The December 10 year treasury note lost 16.5 points on volume of 1,604,429 contracts. Total open interest declined by 19,351 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% less than average, meaning that longs were not shaken out by the precipitous decline on Friday.On September 12, the December note made a new low for the move at 123-305, which is the lowest print since 123-185 made on August 1.After making its secondary closing high on August 28 through September 12, total open interest has declined by 39,180 contracts, which is a minimal decline considering the magnitude of the price decline (1.955 points).On September 9, the December note generated a short and intermediate term sell signal, and since then has not had much of a rally with the exception of September 15 when the December note is trading 7.5 points higher on the day. Stand aside.

Cotton:

December cotton lost 9 points on volume of 24,101 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,301 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 110% above average meaning that a battle ensued between longs and shorts and neither side was able to move December cotton much in either direction.On September 12, December cotton made a high of 68.48, which is the highest print since July 22 (68.54). December cotton has advanced from September 8 through September 11, and open interest increases have been large, which means the market is vulnerable to profit taking.

As this report is being compiled on September 15, December cotton is trading 1.91  cents lower and has made a daily low of 65.71 , which is the lowest print since 65.33 made on September 10.The bull spread also is correcting. December cotton is far from generating a short-term sell signal, which would reverse the short-term buy signal generated on August 22. December cotton remains on an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

From the September 11 report:

In order for cotton to continue its advance, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot points of 68.11 and then 71.02. These should be watched closely, because if cotton is unable to make a daily lows above the pivot points, the rally will stall.We advise against entering new futures positions at this juncture and the bull spreads have widened, which makes them vulnerable to a pullback.

Cocoa:

December cocoa advanced $25.00 on volume of 22,413 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 1,734 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 210% above average meaning that liquidation was off the charts heavy.December cocoa generated a short-term sell signal on September 5 and an intermediate term sell signal on September 8.

From September 5 through September 12, open interest has declined every day and totals 9,152 contracts while December cocoa has declined by $79.00. This is perfectly normal in the early stages of up bear market when longs begin to liquidate as prices move lower. Cocoa has been unable to rally, which is why we have not recommended bearish positions. Stand aside.

Coffee:

December coffee lost 90 points on volume of 21,345 contracts. Total open interest increased by 252 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. However the December contract lost 631 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bearish).We continue to see a pattern of open interest increases when coffee prices decline and when it rallies, Open interest declines. This is bearish open interest action. As this report is being compiled on September 15, December coffee has closed at 1.8220, down 2.35 cents.December coffee generated a short-term sell signal on September 11, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside