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Soybean oil: October and December soybean oil will generate short and intermediate term sell signals on September 13. According to the most recent COT report, managed money is long soybean oil by ratio of 4.92:1, down from the previous week of 5.15:1 and the ratio two weeks ago a 5.05:1. As a result of the heavy long position there will be a substantial amount of long liquidation ahead. Stand aside.

Live cattle:

October live cattle advanced 1.30 cents on very heavy volume of 99,088 contracts. Volume substantially exceeded that of September 9 when the October contract gained the 3.00 cent daily limit and total open interest declined by 3,773 on volume of 91,424. On September 8, the October contract lost 1.025 cents on volume of 91,986 and total open interest declined by 246. On September 12, total open interest declined again, this time by 2,132 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 15% below average, but a total open interest decline on yesterday’s advance is bearish.

As this report is being compiled on September 13, the October contract is trading 45 points lower and has made a daily low of 104.375, which is below yesterday’s print of 104.750. The market is in a bottoming process and this is likely to be painful to both longs and shorts. For short term buy signal to occur the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for September 13 of 108.400. Stand aside.

WTI crude oil:

October WTI crude oil gained 41 cents on strong volume of 1,325,949 contracts. Volume increased from September 9 when the October contract lost $1.74 on volume of 1,236,748 contract and total open interest declined by 44,153. On September 12, total open interest declined by 6,027 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. The October contract lost 44,858 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on September 13, the October contract is trading $1.26 lower and has made a daily low of 44.77, which is slightly above yesterday’s print of 44.72. October WTI crude oil remains on short and intermediate term sell signals. Stand aside.

Gold: 

December gold lost $8.90 on volume of 209,449 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 10,746 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 105% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on yesterday’s modest decline. The December contract made a low of 1323.30 and this was the lowest print since 1307.40 made on September 6.

As this report is being compiled on September 13, the December contract is trading $1.60 higher and has made a daily low of 1325.50. We think it is possible that the short term buy signal of September 7 will be reversed and we continue to be concerned about the lopsided long position of managed money, which according to the COT report released on Friday show them to be long by ratio of 13.17:1.

A short term sell signal will occur if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for September 13 of is $1328.70 and the rally will resume if the December contract makes a daily low above OIA’s pivot point for September 13 of 1343.60. Stand aside. The December contract remains on short and intermediate term buy signals.

Silver:

December silver lost 36.8 cents on volume of 84,378 contracts. Total open interest declined by a sizable 2,859 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average. As this report is being compiled on September 13, the December contract is trading 4.5 cents lower on the day.

For the December contract to generate a short term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for September 13 of $19.014. The rally will resume if the December contract makes a daily low above the pivot point of 19.477 for September 13. Stand aside. The December contract remains on short and intermediate term buy signals.

Canadian dollar: On September 12, the September and December Canadian dollar generated short and intermediate term sell signals.

Australian dollar: The September and December Australian dollar will generate short and intermediate term sell signals on September 13.

S&P 500 E-mini: On September 12, the September and December S&P 500 E-mini generated short term sell signals, but remain on intermediate term buy signals. We have no recommendation.