For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

Soybeans:

November soybeans lost 11.00 cents on light volume of 124,826 contracts. Total open interest increased by 586 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 70% below average. The November contract accounted for loss of 1,906 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on September 19, November soybeans are trading sharply lower, down 12.75 cents and have made a new contract low at 9.56, which takes out the previous contract low of 9.69 1/2.. There is a severe bearish mindset well entrenched in grains, and we continue to recommend a stand aside posture. Do not attempt to pick up bottom in any of the grain markets

Soybean oil: This will be our last report in soybean oil until we see a trading opportunity or a reversal of signals.

December soybean oil lost 68 points on volume of 63,975 contracts. Total open interest declined by 643 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The October contract lost 747 of open interest, December -799. As this report is being compiled on September 19, December soybean oil is trading 24 points lower and has made a new low for the move at 32.52.December soybean oil remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Corn:

December corn lost 3.50 cents on volume of 155,025 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,183 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 890 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on September 19, December corn is trading 5.00 cents lower and has made a new contract low of 3.32, which takes out the previous contract low of 3.35 3/4. December corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Chicago wheat:

December Chicago wheat lost 10.75 cents on volume of 47,118 contracts. Total open interest increased by 72 contracts. The December contract accounted for loss of 520 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on September 19, December Chicago wheat is trading sharply lower, down 13.25 cents and has made a new contract low at 4.75, which takes out the previous contract low of 4.87 3/4 made on September 18.December Chicago wheat remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Kansas City wheat:

December Kansas City wheat lost 12.50 cents on volume of 14,485 contracts. Total open interest increased by 400 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The December and March 2015 contracts lost 169 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on September 19, December Kansas City wheat is trading sharply lower, down 11.00 cents and has made a new contract low at 5.58, which takes out yesterday’s contract low of 5.69. December Kansas City wheat remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Lean hogs:

December lean hogs lost 10 points on total volume of 55,169 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 3,333 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest decline. However, December lean hogs made a low of 90.900, which was limit down and this shook out large numbers of market participants. The October contract lost 3,379 of open interest, December -564. On September 17, December lean hogs generated an intermediate term sell signal, but remains on a short-term buy signal. At this juncture, we think the market could go either way and have no recommendation.

WTI crude oil:

October WTI crude oil lost $1.35 on volume of 534,855 contracts. Volume was the lowest since September 15 when October WTI advanced 65 cents on volume of 534,680 contracts and total open interest declined by 7,487 contracts. On September 18, total open interest declined by 8,896 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% less than average. The October contract lost 19,038 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on September 19, October WTI is trading 95 cents lower and has made a daily low of 91.85, which is the lowest print since 90.63 made on September 15. October and November WTI remain on short and intermediate term sell signals. Stand aside.

Natural gas:

October natural gas lost 10.3 cents on volume of 311,120 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 25,445 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 230% above average meaning that liquidation was off the charts heavy. The October contract lost 24,040 of open interest. Yesterday’s action typified previous weeks when the natural gas EIA report is released. The market usually pulls back for a second and possible 3rd day after the release of the report. Additionally, after the generation of a buy signal, the market usually pulls back from 1-3 days. We think the downside has been played out, however there is a massive deflationary bias in all commodities and this may keep a lid on natural gas, at least until there is a cold spell. October natural gas remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. We think the best way to play natural gas at this juncture is through an option bull call spread.

British pound:

The December British pound advanced 83 pips on volume of 133,616 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,103 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. However, the pound was able to attract new buyers who were willing to pay up on the eve of the Scottish referendum. As this report is being compiled on September 19, the December pound is trading 56 pips lower and has made a daily low of 1.6282 and a daily high of 1.6515, which is the highest print since September 2 (1.6629). It appears that the pound is the victim of “buy on the rumor, sell on the news” syndrome. The December pound remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

10 year Treasury Note:

The December Treasury Note lost 10 points on volume of 1,351,833 contracts.Total open interest declined only 5,154 contracts, which is 85% below average. On September 18, the December note made a low of 123-180, which is the lowest print since 123-185 made on August 1. Though the December note remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal since September 9, it appears that longs are digging in and refusing to liquidate. As this report is being compiled on December 19, the December note is trading 7 points higher, but has made a new low for the move at 123-160, which is the lowest print since July 31 (123-125).Stand aside.

Cotton:

December cotton lost 63 points on volume of 20,872 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 1,134 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average. The December contract accounted for loss of 591 of open interest, March 2015 -581. As this report is being compiled on September 19, December cotton is trading 1.18 cents lower and has made a new low for the move at 63.70.December cotton is trading below OIA’s key pivot point of 64.67, and in order for December cotton to reverse the buy signal of August 22, the high of the day must be below the pivot point. The high on September 19 is 65.12. Stand aside.

Cocoa: On September 18, December cocoa generated an intermediate term buy signal, and will generate a short-term buy signal on September 19

December cocoa advanced $39.00 on volume of 19,752 contracts. Total open interest declined by 429 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 507 of open interest. We attribute the decline of open interest on the advance to garden-variety profit taking after rebounding from the low of 3,019 made on September 11.As this report is being compiled on September 19, December cocoa has closed at 3,259, which is the highest close since August 18 (3,260).Now that cocoa is on a short and intermediate term buy signals, the market should pull back from 1-3 days and this is the opportunity to initiate bullish positions. The longer-term moving averages are in a bullish set up. For example, the 50 day moving average stands at 3,158, 100 day, 3,098, 200 day 2,992.The 5 day moving average stands at 3147 and the 20 day, 3144. Wait for a pullback before considering bullish positions.

From the September 17 report:

“As this report is being compiled on September 18, December cocoa has closed at 3,192, up $39.00.Yesterday, we expressed our thoughts about the possibility of cocoa reversing its sell signal, and the intermediate term buy signal generated on September 18 provides further credence that cocoa may be on its way to test the August 27 high of 3,300.In order for December Cocoa to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of 3,178.”

Coffee:

December coffee lost 3.65 cents on light volume of 13,758 contracts.Total open interest declined by 578 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that liquidation was considerably higher than average. The December contract accounted for loss of 627 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on September 19, December coffee is trading 3.10 lower and has made a new low for the move at 1.7640, which is the lowest print since July 23 (1.7035). Today’s price action is a major breakdown, and augurs for an intermediate term sell signal early next week . On September 11, December coffee generated a short-term sell signal and since then December coffee has fallen from 1.8545 to today’s low of 1.7640.We think coffee will present a bullish opportunity in the future, but as we have said before,coffee must work off the excessive bullish position of managed money. Stand aside.