August soybeans advanced 15.25 cents on volume of 312,997 contracts. Total open interest increased only 85 contracts.The July contract lost 773 and September/November lost a total of 5,229. As this report compiled on July 10th, the August contract is rocketing higher trading up 24.25 cents. On July 3, August soybeans generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on July 5.
The COT report revealed that manage money added 6,301 to their long position and liquidated 36,981 Of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 29,259 of their long positions and added 9,224 to their short positions. As of the latest report, manage money remains heavily short by a ratio of 2.08:1 which is down sharply from the previous week of 2.81:1 and the ratio 2 weeks ago of 2.34:1.
On July 10th, the August contract has made a new high for the move of 10.29 1/2 , which is the highest print since 10.56 made the week of March 16th, 2017. Soybeans remain in an overbought condition, but the reality is with manage money heavily short there is no telling how high this blow off goes before capitulation set in. Do not short this market and we recommend a stand aside posture.
December corn advanced 2.00 cents volume of 482,207 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,509 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 80% below average. The COT report released on Friday revealed that managed money added 3,856 to their long positions and liquidated a massive 64,107 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 11,838 of their long positions and added a substantial 58,744 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short corn by a ratio of 1.17:1, down from the previous week of 1.48:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.20:1.
As this report is being compiled on July 10, the September contract is trading sharply higher, up 9.75 cents on heavy volume and has made a new high for the move of 4.02 1/2. This is the highest print since 3.99 1/4 made the week of June 5, 2017 and today’s price is the highest in over one year. Much like soybeans, the driver of higher prices is substantial short covering on the part of bearish speculators. There is no telling how high the move carries, and like soybeans, we recommend against trying to pick a top in this market. Stand aside. On July 5, September corn generated short and intermediate term buy signals.
NASDAQ 100 E-mini:
The September Nasdaq 100 E-mini gained 59.00 points on volume of 267,011 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,651 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. A, total open interest declined on Friday strong advance is negative. On November 16, OIA announced that the September NASDAQ E-mini generated a short term sell signal. Although, it is rallying on July 10, the September contract will not generate a short term buy signal. We have no recommendation.
S&P 500 E-mini:
The September S&P 500 E-mini gained 14.00 points on volume of 1,269,368 contracts. Similar to the NASDAQ E-mini, open interest declined as well and in the case of the S&P 500 E-mini by 3,194 contracts. As this report is being compiled July 7, the September contract is trading 5.25 points higher on the day and unlike the S&P 500 cash index, which generated a short term sell signal on July 6, the S&P 500 E-mini remains on a short term buy signal. No recommendation.
WTI crude oil:
August WTI crude oil lost $1.29 on volume of 1,529,031 contracts. Total open interest increased just 857 contracts. The August contract accounted for a loss of 25,491 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in August and increase total open interest.
The COT report released on Friday revealed that managed money added 1,104 to their long positions and liquidated 20,881 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 16,990 to their long positions and also added 19,205 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money was long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 1.71:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.54:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.59:1.
On July 3, August WTI generated a short term buy signal and ever since the market has been trading weakly. It appears likely that the short term buy signal will reversed shortly. The first sign will be if it makes a high below 44.61 and a confirmed sell signal will occur if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for July 10 of 44.22. Stand aside.
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