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Corn:

December corn advanced 2.00 cents on volume of 373,579 contracts. Volume fell from November 18 when the December contract gained 0.25 cents on volume of 521,302 contracts and total open interest declined by 9,177. On November 19, total open interest declined by 4,412, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 29,528 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on November 20, the December contract is trading 0.50 cents lower. December corn remains on short and intermediate term sell signals. We have no recommendation.

Soybeans:

January soybeans advanced 2.25 cents on volume of 166,233 contracts. Volume fell from November 18 when the January contract lost 6.25 cents on volume of 232,203 contracts and total open interest increased by a massive 10,201. On November 19, total open interest declined by 956 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. The January 2016 contract lost 2,955 of open interest, March 2016 -116.

As this report is being compiled on November 20, the January contract is trading 2.75 cents lower and has made a daily low of 8.52, which is fractionally below yesterday’s print of 8.52 1/2 and is the lowest print since 8.50 made on November 10. Soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil remain on short and intermediate term sell signals. We have no recommendation.

Cocoa:

March cocoa advanced $36.00 on volume of 21,086 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 1,336 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 145% above average. From November 16 through November 19, total open interest has increased by 9,010 contracts while March cocoa has advanced just $19.00. This is a massive open interest increase to move cocoa just 19.00.

Although, cocoa may continue its advance, we are concerned about the heavy selling that is counteracting the buy side. As this report is being compiled on November 20, the March contract has made a new contract high of $3,420, but is currently trading $1.00 lower. March cocoa remains on short and intermediate term buy signals. As we pointed out before, we do not like the open interest action relative to price action and recommend a stand aside posture at this juncture.

WTI crude oil:

January WTI crude oil lost 23 cents on volume of 826,101 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 44,851, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on yesterday’s modest decline. The December contract accounted for loss of 56,685 of open interest and the notable observation on yesterday’s trading was the lack of open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in the December contract. This tells us that market participants are reluctant to make commitments near contract lows.

As this report is being compiled on November 20, the January contract is trading 7 cents above yesterday’s close and has made a daily high of $42.76, which takes out yesterday’s print of 42.37 and a low of 41.37, which is above yesterday’s print of 41.25. January WTI remains on short and intermediate term sell signals. We have no recommendation.

Dollar index:

The December dollar index lost 68.1 points on volume of 42,006 contracts. Total open interest increased by 459 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. As this report is being compiled on November 20, the dollar index has reversed course and is trading sharply higher, up by 58.1 points or +0.59%. The dollar index remains on short and intermediate term buy signals. We have no recommendation.

Euro:

The December euro advanced 86 pips on volume of 256,133 contracts. Total open interest declined by 995 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 85% below average and a total open interest decline on yesterday’s strong advance is bearish. This follows the total open interest increase of 2,697 on November 18 when the December contract lost 20 pips, which is bearish open interest action relative to the price decline.

As this report is being compiled on November 20, the December contract is trading 89 pips lower and has made a daily low of 1.0644, which is above the low for the move of 1.0620 made on November 18. The December contract remains on short and intermediate term sell signals. We have no recommendation.

S&P 500 E-mini:

The S&P 500 E-mini lost 0.50 points on light volume of 1,289,465 contracts. Volume was substantially below that of November 18 when the December contract gained 30.75 points on volume of 1,549,352 contracts and total open interest increased by 20,565. On November 19, total open interest increased just 3,220 contracts, a major disappointment for the bulls.

As this report is being compiled on November 20, the December contract is trading 10.00 points higher and has made a daily high of 2094.50, which is the highest print since 2097.25 made on November 9. Conceivably, the December contract may move to test the contract high of 2118.75 made on May 19, 2015, but before this we think it will struggle to take out the November 3 print of 2110.25. The continuation high made by the June 2015 contract occurred on May 19 when it printed 2134.00 and this is likely the top of the market. OIA will be monitoring the market to look for a spot to initiate short call positions.