Soybeans:

March soybeans advanced 27 cents on volume of 258,749 contracts. Volume exceeded 253,067 contracts that were traded on January 11, but fell short of volume on December 20 of 299,585 contracts. March soybeans reached their highest level since December 18, when they made a high of 14.93 3/4. On January 30, open interest increased by a massive 13,253 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 90% above average, meaning that new longs were entering the market and pushing prices significantly higher. From January 18 through January 30, open interest has increased by 50,784 contracts while March soybeans have advanced 48.50 cents. Open interest and price action continue to act in a bullish congruent fashion. The USDA released its export sales for soybeans and for the 2012-2013 season came in at 386,000 tons. As is usually the case after generating a buy signal, soybeans are pulling back and are trading 16.50 cents lower on January 31.

Soybean meal:

March soybean meal advanced $9.00 on volume of 84,287 contracts. Volume was the highest since January 14 when 99,665 contracts were traded and March soybean meal closed at $417.50. March soybean meal reached the highest level since December 26 when it made a high of $435.50 On January 30, open interest increased by a massive 7,642 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 250% above average. Note that the increase of open interest in soybean meal was almost triple the increase in soybeans relative to volume. From January 14 through January 30 open interest has increased by 43,300 contracts while March soybean meal has advanced $28.40. Open interest and price action continue to act in a bullish congruent fashion. The USDA reported that meal sales for the 2012-2013 season totaled 141,670 tons. A short-term buy signal will not be generated for soybean meal on January 31.

Soybean oil:

March soybean oil gained 89 points on volume of 107,074 contracts. Volume was the highest since January 16 when 135,428 contracts were traded and March soybean oil closed at 51.31, while open interest increased by only 628 contracts. On January 15, March soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal. On January 30, open interest increased by 7,311 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 160% above average. Note the increase of open interest in soybean oil was double the increase of soybeans relative to volume. The USDA reported for the 2012 2013 season that 20,000 tons of soybean oil was sold. The market continues to act extremely well, however, an intermediate term buy signal will not be generated on January 31.

Corn:

March corn advanced 10.75 cents on heavy volume of 274,431 contracts. Volume was the highest since January 16 when 277,523 contracts were traded and March corn closed at $7.31 1/4. Additionally, corn reached its highest level since December 7 when March corn made a high of $7.52 3/4. On January 30, open interest increased by a massive 19,673 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 185% above average, meaning that new buyers were heavily entering the market and pushing prices higher. From January 24 through January 30 open interest has increased by 49,733 contracts while March corn has advanced 19.50 cents. The open interest increase during the January 24 through January 29 time frame is disproportionately large compared to the increase in the price of March corn. Again, it appears that commercial selling is keeping a lid on prices. On January 22, March corn generated a short-term buy signal. Corn will not generate an intermediate term buy signal on January 31. The USDA announced that 186,800 tons of corn was sold for the recent reporting period.

Wheat:

 March wheat gained 10 cents on volume of 109,319 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,475 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 45% less than average. The USDA reported that 293,600 tons week was sold in the latest reporting period. Stand aside.

Crude oil:

March crude oil gained 37 cents on volume of 501,214 contracts. Volume declined by approximately 148,000 from January 29 when March crude oil advanced $1.13 and open interest increased by 27,653 contracts. Within the next day or two, the 50 day moving average will cross above the 200 day moving average on the crude oil continuation chart. Crude oil remains overbought, and we continue to recommend that clients stand aside.

Natural gas: Until we see a compelling development in natural gas, we are suspending further reports.

March natural gas gained 7.7 cents on very light volume of 238,963 contracts. Volume was the lightest since January 7 when 199,358 contracts were traded and March natural gas closed at $3.281. Stand aside.

Copper:

March copper gained 5.85 cents on heavy volume of 73,529 contracts. Volume was the highest since November 29 when 83,374 contracts were traded and March copper closed at $3.6055. March copper reached the highest level since January 3 when copper made a high of $3.7590. Copper remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. It appears that copper remains in a trading range.

Gold:

April gold advanced $18.90 on heavy volume of 245,220 contracts.  However, volume declined by approximately 36,000 contracts from January 29 when gold advanced $9.80 and open interest declined by 8,200 contracts. On January 30 open interest increased by a disappointing 419 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. In short, the advance of the past 2 days totaled $28.70 but open interest declined by 7,781 contracts. This is bearish. Gold  has not been able to close above its 50 day moving average of $1688.00. As this report is being compiled on January 31, gold is trading $19.80 lower. Gold remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Platinum:

April platinum advanced $10.40 on volume of 9,057 contracts. Open interest increased by a minuscule 28 contracts. During the past two days, platinum has advanced $27.10 while open interest has declined by 62 contracts. This is bearish open interest action relative to the price advance. Ever since platinum made its high at $1706.80 on January 15, the market has been trading in a sideways pattern. The next direction of platinum will be determined by either a break above the old high, or break below $1654.00, which was the low made on January 15. Stand aside.

Silver:

March silver gained 99.3 cents on heavy volume of 64,173 contracts. Volume was the highest since January 4 when 73,418 contracts were traded and March silver closed at $29.946. On January 30, open interest increased by a hefty 3,148 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 80% above average, meaning that new longs were entering the market in heavy numbers and pushing prices significantly higher. On January 31, silver has made a complete reversal and is currently trading 75.2 cents lower after making a low of $ 31.12. We view this as bearish. Silver had no follow through beginning with the overnight session, which began at 5 o’clock central time January 30. For example, the high on January 30 was $32.30, but the high on January 31 has been $32.13, and this was made during the evening session on January 30. In other words, the market did not have strength to take out the high of January 30, let alone the high of $32.485 made on January 23. Silver remains on a short-term buy signal, and in intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Euro:

The March euro gained 79 points on volume of 288,587 contracts. Open interest increased by 2,983 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 50% less than average. The euro has had 7 consecutive days of open interest increases beginning on January 22 through January 31, which totals 28,688 contracts. During this time, the euro has advanced 2.45 cents. Based upon the open interest increases of the past several days and the 50 day moving average of 1.3163 on the continuation chart, the euro is overbought, and a correction is to be expected. We continue to think the euro is going move higher longer term, but a correction would be healthy for the market.

S&P 500 E mini:

The S&P 500 E mini lost 9.75 points on volume of 1,804,402 contracts. Volume was the highest since January 24 when 1,830,322 contracts were traded and the March E mini closed at 1491.75. The market remains overbought and we discourage clients from entering new long positions in index futures.