Soybeans:

March soybeans gained 5.75 cents on volume of 162,341 contracts. Open interest increased by 4,781 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 20% above average. From January 18 through January 25 (5 sessions), open interest has increased every day and totals 21,968 contracts. During this time, soybeans have gained 10.75 cents. Although it is positive that open interest and price moved in the same direction, the fact that it took nearly 22,000 contracts to move soybeans a bit more than 10 cents indicates fairly heavy selling, most likely by commercial interests. The market continues to move in a sideways pattern, and there does not seem to be a compelling reason to be involved in the market at this juncture. Soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside. 

Soybean meal:

March soybean meal gained $1.70 on volume of 50,698 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,427 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 160% above average, meaning that new longs and shorts were engaging in a major battle because prices barely moved. From January 14 through January 25 (9 sessions), March soybean meal has advanced $12.10 while open interest has increased by a massive 26,544 contracts. Like soybeans, the massive increase of open interest relative to a small increase in price looks like heavy commercial selling keeping a lid on prices. Soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Soybean oil:

March soybean oil lost 1 point on volume of 61,115 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,774 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 20% above average. On January 15, March soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal, but has not yet generated in intermediate term buy signal. The market has been performing well since the beginning of the year, and we expect this to continue.

Corn:

March corn lost 3.50 cents on volume of 179,288 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,597 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 5% less than average. This is the fist time in several sessions that open interest has not been acting in a bullish congruent fashion relative to price. On January 22, March corn generated a short-term buy signal. We think most of the bad news on exports and ethanol production has been discounted and expect the market to trade sideways to higher.

Wheat:

March wheat gained 8 cents on volume of 82,146 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,652 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 5% less than average. Since January 16 through January 25, open interest and price action has been trading in a bullish congruent fashion. Wheat remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Crude oil:

March crude oil lost 7 cents on light volume of 429,318 contracts. Volume was the lowest since January 7 when 397,682 contracts were traded and March crude oil closed at $93.63. Crude oil continues to be firm with very few setbacks. Despite this, we continue to recommend that clients stand aside.

Natural gas:

March natural gas lost .002, which is essentially unchanged on light volume of 274,127 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,085 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 75% less than average. Stand aside.

Copper:

March copper lost 2.45 cents on volume of 54,312 contracts. Volume was the highest since January 22 when 68,405 contracts were traded and March copper advanced 2.60 cents while open interest increased by 2,077 contracts. On January 25, open interest increased by 542 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 50% less than average. Copper continues to trade in a range bound fashion, which makes it very difficult to make money.

Gold:

February gold lost $13.30 on volume of 212,879 contracts. Volume declined from January 24 when 232,151 contracts were traded and February gold lost $16.80 while open interest increased by 2,279 contracts. On January 25, open interest declined by 259 contracts which is minuscule and dramatically below average. As this report is being written on January 28, gold is trading $3.10 lower, and has made a new low for the move at $1651.00, which is the lowest price for February gold since January 11 when it reached $1653.10. The market is not acting well and remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Platinum:

April platinum gained $11.10 on volume of 10,430 contracts. Open interest increased by 872 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 230% above average, which means that new longs were aggressively entering the market and pushing prices higher. From Wednesday, January 23 through January 25, which is 3 days after the COT report was tabulated, open interest has increased by 3,193 contracts. Platinum is in a bull market but is massively overbought and the market needs a shake out.

Silver:

March silver lost 51.6 cents on volume of 46,387 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,242 contracts, which in relation to volume is  average. During the past 2 trading sessions, open interest has declined 5,398 contracts while March silver has declined by $1.233. This is bearish. Additionally, as this report is being composed, silver is trading another 41.6 cents lower. On January 23, March silver generated a short-term sell signal, but has not been acting well ever since. Although silver will not generate a short-term sell signal on January 28, it looks increasingly likely this could occur on January 29. This appears to be one of the rare times that a false buy signal was generated. Despite this, we said the market would pull back, and have not recommended the implementation of long positions, especially since silver remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

British pound:

The March British pound gained 8 points on volume of 136,898 contracts. Open interest increased by 672 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 75% less than average. The British pound continues to sink lower as this report is being compiled on January 28 and has made a new low for the move at 1.5670.  We have advised clients to refrain from implementing bearish positions due to the massive oversold condition of the pound. Ever since the pound generated a short and intermediate term sell signal on January 17, the market has been steadily sinking without so much as a decent sized rally. Stand aside.

Canadian dollar:

The Canadian dollar lost 47 points on volume of 100,167 contracts. Open interest increased by a massive 7,544 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 200% above average, meaning that new shorts were entering the market and driving prices lower. Although the long to short ratio collapsed dramatically during the last reporting period, there appears to be more selling ahead.

Euro:

The March euro gained 91 points on heavier than normal volume of 325,317 contracts. Open interest increased by 4,024 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 45% below average. From January 22 through January 25 (4 trading sessions), open interest has increased by 17,999 contracts while the euro has advanced 1.44 cents. As we said in the January 27 Weekend Wrap, it appears the professional class of traders is finally buying into the reality that the euro is in a bull market.

S&P 500 E mini:

The S&P 500 E mini gained 3.75 points on volume of 1,595,063 contracts. Open interest declined by a minuscule 221 contracts. The E mini reached a new high at 1499.25, and as this report is being compiled, has made another new high at 1500.00. The E mini is massively overbought, and we recommend against entering long positions at current levels. Time is better spent looking for stocks that have a pulled back close to their 50 day moving averages in strong sectors. We are partial to chemicals and oil service sectors.