Soybeans:

 May soybeans lost 9.50 cents on volume of 162,179 contracts. Open interest declined by 5,649 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 40% above average, meaning that liquidation was fairly heavy on the decline. On March 18, it is a certainty that May soybeans will generate a short and intermediate term sell signal. On March 13, all clients should have liquidated long futures and long call options positions once May soybeans penetrated the 14.51 level. As this report is being compiled, May soybeans are trading 17.50 cents lower and have made a new low for the move at $14.04 1/4. Stand aside, and wait for a rally before implementing bearish positions.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $6.20 on volume 71,701 contracts. Open interest declined 3,771 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 110% above average, meaning that liquidation in soybean meal was heavier than soybeans. As this report is being compiled, May soybean meal is trading $4.90 lower and has made a new low for the move at 412.30. Although we think that soybean meal will generate a short and intermediate term, it will not occur on March 18. Stand aside.

Soybean oil:

May soybean oil gained 57 points on volume of 73,598 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,767 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 90% above average. Soybean oil remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. As this report is being compiled, May soybean oil is trading 49 points lower. Although we think the market is headed lower, we suggest that clients wait for a rally before implementing bearish positions.

Corn:

May corn gained 0.50 cents on volume of 184,733 contracts. Open interest increased by a healthy 6,482 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 40% above average. For the past 2 sessions, May corn has advanced 7 cents while open interest has increased 29,683 contracts. This is bullish open interest action relative to the price advance. Although corn has not generated a short-term buy signal, we expect this to occur shortly.  On March 18, the rest of the grain complex is trading sharply lower, but corn is unchanged on the day. May corn made a low at $7.10 on Sunday at 20:15 CDT, then retested that low on Monday 10:45 am CDT. Despite the bearish market activity through the evening and early morning session (sharply higher dollar, sharply lower equity and grain markets), corn held its own. In the grain markets, corn is our favorite trade.

Wheat:

May wheat lost 1.75 cents on volume of 99,631 contracts. Open interest declined 2,642 contracts, which in relation to volume is  average. As this report is being compiled, May wheat is trading 11.75 cents lower and is now selling at a discount to May corn. At this juncture, we see no trading opportunities on the long or short side. Stand aside.

Crude oil:

April crude oil gained 42 points on volume of 491,903 contracts. Open interest declined 24,517 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 90% above average. The large decline of open interest can be attributed to the expiration of the April contract. The April contract lost 33,065 contracts of open interest, and by subtracting the total open interest decline of 24,517, open interest increased 8,548 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 25% less than average, meaning the open interest increase in the May forward contracts was not robust. Although the market has recovered from the low of $92.14 made in the early-morning session, we want to further monitor crude oil before making a recommendation. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. One of our concerns is that while crude oil is trading approximately unchanged on the day, Brent crude is trading nearly 1/2% lower. Stand aside.

Natural gas:

April natural gas gained 6 cents on heavy volume of 647,150 contracts. Volume shrank 111,000 contracts from March 14 when natural gas advanced 13.2 cents and open interest increased 28,319 contracts. On March 15, open interest increased 10,176 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 35% below average. As this report is being compiled, natural gas is trading unchanged on the day and has made a high of 4.003. As we have indicated in previous reports, we think it is wise to take partial profits, and look to enter new longs once the market has had a pullback.

Copper:

May copper lost 1.60 on volume of 56,052 contracts. Open interest increased 2,666 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 75% above average, meaning that new shorts were entering the market and driving prices lower. As this report is being compiled, copper is trading 9.40 cents lower and has made a new low for the move at $3.4175. Stand aside.

Gold:

April gold advanced $1.90 on low volume of 110,760 contracts. Volume was the lowest since February 8 when 102,295 contracts were traded and April gold closed at $1666.90. On March 15, open interest declined 5,198 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 70% above average, meaning that liquidation was heavy. As this report is being compiled, April gold is trading $11.30 higher and has made a new high for the move at $1610.40. Previously we suggested that clients write out of the money calls on gold, but we have changed our minds due to the current see crisis in Cyprus. Our concern is that the bank run in Cyprus could spread to the peripheral countries and cause a flight to the precious metals. Gold remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Ae think at this juncture, it is best to stand aside and monitor the market.

Platinum:

April platinum gained $2.60 on light volume of 8,526 contracts. Open interest increased by 165 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 25% below average. Stand aside.

Silver:

May silver gained 4.4 cents on light volume of 25,693 contracts. Open interest increased by a minuscule 36 contracts. Stand aside.

Australian dollar: On March 15, the June Australian Dollar generated a short term buy signal.

The June Australian dollar gained 25 points on light volume of 107,126 contracts. Open interest increased by 487 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 75% below average.

From the Weekend Wrap of March 17 on the Australian dollar:

However, with the massive increase of open interest in just 9 days and the generation of a short-term buy signal on March 15, a pullback should occur within a day or two. We may have an early indication of this because according to the preliminary numbers released by the exchange, volume shrank to 107,126 contracts and open interest increased only 660 contracts. Although the open interest numbers are not reliable in the preliminary report, the volume figures are. Volume dramatically tapered off from the very heavy volume seen on March 14 as the market made new highs.

A conservative way of trading the sideways to higher move in the Australian dollar would be to write out of the money put options.

Euro:

The June euro gained 56 points on volume of 322,691 contracts. Open interest declined 6,970 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 15% below average. As this report is being compiled, the June euro is trading 1.05 cents lower and has made a new low for the move at 1.2892. The massive selling in the euro is due to the concern of an impending financial crisis brought to the surface by the taxation of bank deposits in Cyprus. The euro has been on a short and intermediate term sell signal, and we were waiting for a rally to the 1.3200 area before recommending the implementation of bearish positions. Stand aside.

S&P 500 E mini:

The S&P 500 E mini lost 3.50 points on volume of 1,767,829 contracts. Open interest increased by 21,404 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 50% less than average. The number of new highs minus new lows on the NYSE fell to 749 stocks from 985 on March 14. The number of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average on the NYSE fell to 1679 from 1710 on March 14. We continue to advocate writing calls on the E mini that are significantly out of the money.