E-mail: comments and questions to: garry@openinterestanalyst.com
Note: The USDA will release its grain supply demand report on Thursday, May 10.
Soybeans:
July soybeans closed 27 1/2 cents lower on volume of 252,855 contracts. Open interest declined by 9,606 contracts. This was the biggest decline in open interest since April 26 when open interest declined by 12,873 contracts. Soybeans made a new low for the move at $14.34 1/4, which was the lowest price since April 20. The market has been in a corrective phase after topping out at $15.12 1/2 on May 2. As noted above, the USDA Supply Demand Report will be released on Thursday morning and this will have a major impact on the market. Soybeans remain massively overbought and speculators should stand aside.
Corn:
July corn closed 3 cents higher on heavier than normal volume of 317,624 contracts. Open interest increased by 8,194 contracts. Most of the increase in open interest occurred in the December 2012 thru 2013 contracts. Stocks remain tight and as suggested yesterday, speculators should be looking to trade the the old crop contract from the long side. Do not trade new crop contracts from the long side. If the outside markets move sharply lower, there is a high likelihood that corn and the rest of the grains will move in tandem. Also, the USDA Supply Demand Report will be released Thursday morning and will probably have a major impact on the short term direction of corn. Sell stop protection should be placed at $6.04, or $5.99.
Crude oil:
June crude oil closed 93 cents lower on heavier than normal volume of 661,078 contracts. Open interest declined by 10,097 contracts. During the past two trading sessions, open interest has declined by 22,887 contracts. On May 7, crude oil generated in intermediate term sell signal, and had been on a short-term sell signal since late March. Although the market is certainly weak, I suggest speculators stand aside.
Gasoline:
June gasoline closed 2.03 cents higher on volume of 146,224 contracts. Open interest declined by 439 contracts. The market was about 4 cents lower in the early going, but rallied from the lows to close positively. Stand aside.
Gold:
June gold closed $34.60 lower on heavy volume of 243,463 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,906 contracts. During the past two sessions gold lost $40.70 and open interest has increased by a total of 8,409 contracts. Gold has been hit by selling in the outside markets, and as I write this on Wednesday, May 9 gold is down another $14.70. Consult your investment advisor or broker before embarking upon a program to acquire gold for a long-term position.
Silver:
July silver closed 66 cents lower on volume of 50,274 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,410 contracts. The silver market has been a terrible market for anyone trading it on the long side, and has been a significantly weaker market than gold. Stand aside.
Euro:
The June Euro closed 24 points lower on fairly heavy volume of 274,406 contracts. Open interest increased on the decline by 8,771 contracts. Volume was the highest since April 19 when the Euro traded 303,626 contracts. The Euro generated in intermediate term sell signal on May 7 and has been on a short-term sell signal since April 5. As I write this on Wednesday May 9, the June Euro is down by 84 points. Stand aside.
S&P 500 E mini:
The June S&P 500 E mini lost 7.25 points on heavy volume of 2,309,383 contracts. Open interest increased by 5,998 contracts. There are some signs that we may be in the process of making a temporary bottom, but speculators should be cautious on the long side nonetheless. Put protection should be in place despite the possibility of a rally.
