The US holiday of Thanksgiving will be on November 22, and all U.S. exchanges will be closed.
Soybeans:
January soybeans advanced 18 cents on light volume of 142,037 contracts. Open interest increased by a hefty 5,059 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 45% above average, meaning that participation was light, but commitments were heavy. This is the first time since November 1 that prices advanced and open interest increased. On November 19, soybeans advanced by 14 cents and open interest declined by 3,266 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,755 contracts in the May 2013 through-March 2014 contracts. This indicates there was commercial buying activity in the back months. Stand aside.
Soybean meal:
December soybean meal advanced $5.00 January +4.80, March +4.50 on volume of 66,958 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,926 contracts, which in relation to volume is average. Relative to volume, the open interest increase was much stronger in soybeans than in soybean meal. However, the December contract accounted for the liquidation of 3,984 contracts. Stand aside.
Corn:
December corn gained 4.50 cents on volume and 266,538 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,792 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 65% less than average. The December contract accounted for the liquidation of 16,168 contracts. Corn made a new high for the move at $7.47 1/4, which is the highest price since November 9 when December corn made a high of 7.55. Stand aside.
Wheat:
December wheat gained 3.25 cents on volume of 92,002 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,997 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 75% above average, which means that liquidation was heavy. The December contract accounted for the liquidation of 6,754 contracts. Stand aside.
Crude oil:
January crude oil lost $2.53 on volume of 607,214 contracts. Open interest increased by a massive 27,708 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 80% above average, meaning that participation was fairly substantial and that new shorts were entering the market and were in control. During the past several days, open interest has been declining while price advanced slightly. This was bearish. The price and open interest action of November 20 confirms the bearish state of the oil market. Stand aside.
Heating oil:
January heating oil lost 3.51 cents on volume of 161,384 contracts. Open interest declined by 4,281 contracts, which in relation to volume is average. For the past 2 days, price and open interest action has been acting in a bullish congruent fashion. Stand aside.
Natural gas:
December natural gas gained 11.3 cents on light volume of 234,328 contracts. Open interest declined on the advance by 2,924 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 45% less than average. Although one would like to see open interest increase on the advance, the fact is natural gas has advanced substantially during the past several days and normal profit taking would occur, especially with natural gas trading at the high end of its range. We continue to think natural gas is going higher, and as this report is being compiled on November 21, natural gas has advanced 6.4 cents and has made a new high for the move at $3.91. This has taken out the October 29 high of 3.85. Relative to its 50 day moving average of $3.44, the market is overbought, and it is difficult to recommend bullish positions under this condition. Wait for a setback of 15-20 cents cents.
Copper: We will not be reporting on copper until there is a new opportunity.
December copper lost 1.10 cents on volume of 56,359 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,403 contracts, which in relation to volume is average. Stand aside.
Gold:
December gold lost $10.80 on volume of 153,850 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,274 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 2% less than average. From November 5 through November 20 open interest has increased by 23,596 contracts while gold has advanced $43.60. This is bullish congruent price and open interest action. As we have indicated before, gold needs to close above the mid-1730 area, and then close above its 50 day moving average of 1743.50. We want to see how gold performs on a day when the equity market is sharply lower. Stand aside.
Silver:
December silver lost 25.9 cents on volume of 65,089 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,621 contracts, which in relation to volume is average. From November 5 through November 20 open interest has increased by 11,032 contracts, while December silver has advanced $1.961. This is bullish congruent price and open interest action. It is interesting to note that during the month of November, volume in silver has picked up substantially. For example, the average daily volume in October was 38,010 contracts and average daily volume year to date is 52,236 contracts. Although we have not calculated the average daily volume thus far in November, it appears to be above the average daily volume year to date. Increasing volume along with increasing open interest on price advances is bullish. This sets the stage for another move higher. Like gold, we want to see how silver performs on a day when equities are sharply lower. Additionally, silver must close over its 50 day moving average of $33.25, which has not occurred since October 18.
Australian dollar:
The December Australian dollar lost 37 points on volume of 104,440 contracts. Open interest increased by 4,349 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 60% above average. This is the second day in a row that open interest has increased by a substantial amount. Stand aside.
Euro:
The December euro lost 20 points on volume of 239,768 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,121 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 75% less than average. Stand aside.
S&P 500 E mini:
The December S&P 500 E mini gained 3.80 points on volume of 1,555,912 contracts. Open interest increased by 24,433 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 30% less than average. The market made a new high for the move at 1387.50, which was the highest price for the S&P 500 E mini since November 9, when it reached 1388. Maintain long puts.