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Soybeans:
July soybeans closed 49.50 cents higher on heavy volume of 376,932 contracts. Total open interest increased by 11,857 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 17,417 on volume of 118,151 contracts. In relation to volume, the open interest increase was substantial. The market made a new high for the move at $14.51 1/2. As a testament to the strength of soybeans, there were a large number of new entrants in the market that reversed the heavy decline of open interest in the July contract. As I write this on June 20, the low for the day in July soybeans is $14.26 1/4. If this low holds for the rest of the session, which ends at 2:00 pm Chicago time, a short-term buy signal will be generated. Soybeans are already on an intermediate term buy signal.
Soybean meal:
July soybean meal closed $15.00 higher on heavy volume of 131,286 contracts. Total open interest increased by 9,242 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 5,246 on volume of 47,114 contracts. In relation to volume, the open interest increase was massive and much larger than the increase in soybeans. There was a huge number of new entrants in the market that offset the large open interest decline in the July contract. The market is on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Readers should be consulting with their investment advisor or broker regarding timing and entry points for long positions.
Corn:
July corn closed 13 cents higher on very heavy volume of 462,305 contracts. Volume was the highest since June 13 when 467,168 contracts were traded. Total open interest declined by 11,725 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by a massive 31,714 on volume of 140,797 contracts. This is the ninth day in a row that open interest has declined and during this 9 day period, corn prices have advanced 26.25 cents, or 4.48%. Contrary to soybeans and soybean meal, there has not been enough new longs and shorts to offset the massive decline of open interest in the July contract. Although I expect the July contract to show strength in the near term, there is resistance at the $6.40 level, which is corn’s 200 day moving average. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
Wheat:
July wheat closed 19.25 cents higher on heavy volume of 184,950 contracts. Total open interest declined by 456 and open interest in the July contract declined by 9,113 on volume of 79,394 contracts. During the past four trading sessions, July wheat has advanced by 61.50 cents and open interest has advanced by only 1,336 contracts. This is bearish open interest action in relation to price, and the explanation is that as the market moves higher, both longs and shorts are closing out positions, which offsets any new entrants into the market. As of the Latest Commitment of Traders Report, managed money was net short the wheat market. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
Crude oil:
August crude oil gained 75 cents on volume of 554,402 contracts. Total open interest declined by 30,680 contracts. During the past three trading sessions open interest has declined by 50,868 contracts. As I have pointed out before, the crude oil market looks sluggish and the consolidation of the past two weeks is either base building for a move higher, or a top that portends a move lower. As I write this on June 20, crude oil is down $2.28. The market is on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
Gasoline:
August gasoline declined by 1.66 cents on volume of 163,211 contracts. Open interest increased by 2,992 contracts. Like crude oil, gasoline’s performance has been abysmal despite the summer driving season. As I write this on June 20, August gasoline is down 5.11 cents. Gasoline is on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
Copper:
July copper closed 3.80 cents higher on volume of 68,441 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,688 contracts. During the past four trading sessions, open interest has declined by 11,779 contracts while July copper advanced by 11 cents or 3.26%. This is bearish open interest action in relation to price. In other words, as copper was advancing longs and shorts have been closing their positions which has caused open interest to decline. As I write this on June 20, July copper is down 4.70 cents. Stand aside.
Gold:
August gold closed $3.80 lower on volume of 136,414 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,876 contracts. As I write this on June 20, August gold is down $14.30. Please consult your investment advisor or broker about accumulating gold for the long-term.
Silver:
July silver lost 30.3 cents on volume of 42,752 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,183 contracts. Please review the June 10 and June 17 Weekend Wrap for more of my views on silver. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.
Euro:
The September Euro gained 1.08 cents on lighter than normal volume of 312,954 contracts. Open interest declined by a massive 15,613 contracts, which in relation to volume was a major open interest decline. The market has run out a fair number of shorts, but there are quite a few left. I have been cautioning readers about a Euro rally and it looks like the current rally may extend to the 1.29 area. Stand aside.
S&P 500 E mini:
The September S&P 500 E mini closed 9.50 points higher on volume of 1,773,122 contracts. Open interest increased by 6,199, which was a meager open interest increase in relation to volume. On June 19, the September S&P 500 E mini generated a short-term buy signal. On June 19 the S&P 500 cash index generated in intermediate term buy signal and the S&P 500 cash index generated a short-term buy signal as well. As I write this on June 20, the S&P 500 E mini is up 1.75 points. I have been cautioning readers for couple of days that the market looks like it wanted to go higher. Additionally, I have suggested that readers consult with their investment advisor or broker about maintaining or liquidating long put protection.
