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Soybeans:
July soybeans closed 12.75 cents higher on volume of 224,977 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,134 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 9,611 on volume of 75,242 contracts. There was enough buying in the forward months to offset the open interest decline in the July contract. Soybeans exhibited independent strength on a day when the FOMC minutes were announced and was an obvious disappointment the market. Additionally, crude oil and the rest the petroleum complex was down sharply, yet soybeans was able to advance against the tide of selling in many markets. On June 20, July soybeans generated a short-term buy signal. Soybeans have been on an intermediate term buy signal, and therefore the short term signal further confirms the bullish direction of the market. Readers should consult their investment advisor, or broker regarding timing and entry points for long positions.
Soybean meal:
July soybean meal lost 50 cents on fairly heavy volume of 101,249 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,083 contracts, and open interest in the July contract declined by 8,234 on volume of 36,319 contracts. There were enough new entrants into the market to offset the decline of open interest in the July contract. The open interest increase in relation to volume was very impressive, and has been outperforming soybeans in this regard for the past two sessions. Soybean meal is on a short and intermediate term buy signal, and readers should be consulting with their investment advisor or broker regarding timing and entry points for long positions.
Corn:
July corn closed 3/4 cents lower on volume of 333,105 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,005 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 18,286 on volume of 112,767 contracts. There was heavy participation by new entrants into the market that offset the massive open interest decline in the July contract. As I write this on June 21, July corn is down 16 cents. There is some short term tightness in the market but this may not be reflected until we get into first notice day. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
Wheat:
July wheat closed 14.50 cents higher on relatively heavy volume of 147,525 contracts. Total open interest declined by 7,838 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 11,985 on volume of 61,732 contracts. During the past three sessions, open interest has declined by 11,852 contracts while wheat has advanced 54.50 cents. This is certainly bearish open interest action in relation to price, however, there are a large number of speculative shorts in the market and these players are aggressively covering their shorts, which is sending prices higher. I have been cautioning for a number of days that speculators should stay away from wheat on the short side. Conceivably, wheat may generate a short-term buy signal today. However, I am not enthusiastic about the long side of wheat. As I write this on June 21 July wheat is 4.50 cents higher, and has made a new high for the move at $6.82.
Crude oil:
August crude oil closed $2.90 lower on heavy volume of 798,769 contracts. Open interest declined by 19,242 contracts. In previous posts, I have mentioned that crude oil was acting sluggishly and was consolidating for a move lower, or building a base for a move higher. This was resolved on June 20 when the market closed at a new low of $81.45, which was the lowest close since October 5, 2011 when crude oil closed at $79.76. As I write this on June 21, crude oil is down another $2.13. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
Gasoline:
August gasoline lost 6.26 cents on heavy volume of 188,491 contracts. Open interest declined by 334 contracts. The market closed at $2.5073, which was the lowest close for gasoline since December 16, 2011 when it closed at $2.49. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
Copper:
July copper closed 4.60 cents lower on volume of 74,533 contracts. Open interest increased by 856 contracts. The market has been unable to mount a rally to the $3.60 level. Copper reached a high of $3.4775 on June 18 and has sunk like a stone ever since. As I write this on June 21, July copper is 8.90 cents lower and has broken through the $3.30 area for the first time. The market is on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
Gold:
August gold closed $7.40 lower on heavy volume of 218,476 contracts. Open interest declined by 2,759 contracts. One issue I had with gold was that as the market was moving higher, volume and open interest increases were muted. There has been some dismal economic news coming out of China and Europe and this is dramatically affecting a variety of markets, including gold and silver. As I write this on June 21, gold is down $48.90. Gold has been on an intermediate term sell signal and on June 6, gold generated a short-term buy signal. Although a sell signal has not been generated on June 21, it is highly likely this will occur on June 22. Readers should be consulting with their investment advisor or broker about accumulating gold for the longer-term.
Silver:
July silver gained 2.1 cents on heavy volume of 77,718 contracts. Open interest decreased by 559 contracts. Silver remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. As I write this on June 21, silver is down a staggering $1.52 and has broken many of the weekly lows going back to May. Stand aside.
Euro:
The September Euro lost 23 points on volume of 307,329 contracts. Open interest declined by 120,948 contracts, and this large decline is due to the June contract going off the board. As I write this on June 21, the September Euro is down 1.01 cents. As I have said a number of times, there is no reason to be involved with the Euro. Stand aside.
S&P 500 E mini:
The S&P 500 E mini gained 1/4 of a point on volume of 2,366,364 contracts. Open interest increased by 41,854 contracts. On June 19, the S&P 500 E mini generated a short-term buy signal and the S&P 500 cash index generated a short-term buy signal. Additionally, the S&P cash index generated in intermediate term buy signal. As I write this on June 21, the September S&P 500 E mini is down 21.75 points due to disappointing economic stats coming out of the U.S., China and Europe. So far, the market action on the 21st does not invalidate the buy signals generated on June 19. Readers should be consulting with their investment advisor or broker regarding maintaining or liquidation of put protection and the implementation of bullish positions in the S&P 500 index.