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The USDA will release its crop production and supply-demand estimate on Tuesday, August 12.

The time frame for this week’s the Commitments Of Traders Report is Wednesday July 30 – Tuesday August 5.

Buy and sell signals are not necessarily points of action, but tend to indicate the bias of the commodity. For more information on how to use our signals, contact openinterestanalyst.com.

Last week, we noted that only 4 commodities were on buy signals (copper, coffee, cocoa, cattle). This week, that number was pared back by 2 with cattle and copper joining the commodities on sell signals. All that remain is cocoa, coffee with wheat added this week to the buy signal category along with the 10 year Treasury Note.

This week, the Continuous Commodity Index  (GCC) made a new low for the move at 26.37, which is the lowest print since the week of February 10 (26.31). This index is composed of 17 commodities that are equally weighted, therefore one commodity or group of commodities does not have a disproportionate effect on the index. In short, commodities as a group are in a bear market and clients should keep this in mind when looking at the long side of any market.

Soybeans:

For the week, September soybeans advanced 40.25 cents, November +26.25, January +26.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,619 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,151 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,871 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,435 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio of 1.42:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.44:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.33:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, September soybean meal advanced $12.10, October +8.50, December +8.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 361 contracts of their long positions and added 169 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,286 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,035 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by ratio of 2.30:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 2.33:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.40:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, September soybean oil lost 2 points, October +3, December +16. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,265 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,374 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,736 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,248 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean oil by ratio of 1.05:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.10:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.11:1.

Corn:

For the week, September corn declined 0.75 Cents, December +1.25, March 2015 +1.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 17,480 contracts to their long positions and also added 10,593 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 15,618 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5746 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long corn by ratio of 1.41:1, which is about the same as the previous week of 1.40:1, but slightly down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.50:1.

Chicago wheat:  On August 7, September and December Chicago wheat generated a short-term buy signal, but remain on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, September Chicago wheat advanced 15.00 cents, December + 12.75, March 2015 +11.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,630 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,200 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,860 contracts of their long positions and added 3,525 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains short Chicago wheat by ratio of 1.90:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.98:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.69:1.

Although Chicago wheat generated a short-term buy signal this week, we consider it to be a weak signal primarily because the Kansas City contract is showing significant weakness compared to Chicago. The fundamentals for Kansas City wheat are far more constructive than they are for Chicago. From July 30 through August 6 when September Chicago wheat made its high close of 5.68, total open interest increased by 1,346 contracts during the time September wheat advanced 48 cents. While this is positive, it certainly is not a robust increase by any stretch..

However, it does show that speculative participants who are largely short, are not covering positions, which is very constructive for future upside. On August 7, when September Chicago wheat lost 6.50 cents, total open interest declined by 4,868 contracts, which is healthy for commodity on a buy signal.Preliminary stats for trading on Friday show that total open interest declined by 4,491 contracts on heavy volume of 157,813 contracts. The strength in Chicago wheat has been evident in the 3rd quarter with Chicago wheat losing 4.89% versus September KC wheat – 10.14%.Unless Kansas City wheat begins to strengthen, we see little hope for an extended move higher in Chicago wheat. Additionally, corn made a new contract low on Friday and appears to be headed lower on the eve of the August 12 USDA report. This could negatively impact wheat prices. On Friday, Chicago wheat lost 12.25 cents which is consistent with OIA protocols that call for a pull back after the generation of a buy signal. Monday’s action will be important as will trading in the early morning hours on Tuesday just prior to the report. Stand aside.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, September Kansas City wheat lost 3.50 cents, December -0.75, March 2015 +4.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,735 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 228 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,234 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,085 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 1.60:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.52:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.58:1.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, December soybean meal is the out performer with a loss of 4.57%, September wheat -4.89%, November soybeans -6.26%, December soybean oil -8.38%, September Kansas City wheat -10.14%, September corn -16.00%.

Year to date, December soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 0.23%, September Kansas City wheat -4.08%, November soybeans -4.43%, December soybean oil -10.48%, September wheat -12.33%, September corn -20.69%.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton advanced 94 points, March 2015 +1.12 cents, May 2015+1.12. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,317 contracts of their long positions and added 1,280 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,491 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,393 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long cotton by ratio of 1.13:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.21:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.26:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, October sugar lost 21 points, March 2015 -42, May 2015- 35. The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,932 contracts to their long positions and also added 24,725 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,476 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 13,936 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long sugar by ratio of 1.04:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 1.15:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.32:1.

Coffee:

For the week, September coffee lost 11.50 cents, December -11.05, March 2015 -10.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,941 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,343 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 932 contracts of their long positions and added 3,480 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by ratio of 9.04:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 6.79:1 and nearly double the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.64:1.

The current ratio is the highest since the COT tabulation date of May 20 when managed money was long coffee by ratio of 9.65:1.The trading range encompassed by the May 20 report was 1.8250 – 1.9975.

This past week, we recommended the liquidation of bullish positions as coffee prices declined to their lowest level since July 30. In the report of July 24, written on July 25 we recommended the initiation of bullish positions on the 25th and clients were able to take profits off the table despite lower prices because of very favorable entry points.With the overwhelming majority of commodities on sell signals, it is realistic to think that coffee could reverse its current short and intermediate term buy signals.

Additionally, with managed money holding a sizable net long position based upon the most recent COT report, there certainly is enough fuel to fund a continued downside move. Since the tabulation of the report on August 5, total open interest on August 6 declined by 338 contracts and -1,001 contracts on August 7. This isn’t much considering the net long position of manage money increased by 4,284 contracts from the July 29 tabulation to the August 5 report. In the same time frame in the category of “Other Reportables” the net long position declined from 5,673 contracts on July 29 to 4,751 on August 5 (- 922). We think coffee prices are ultimately headed higher, and OIA will be looking for an a spot to recommend the initiation of bullish positions when the time is right.

Cocoa:

For the week, September cocoa advanced $21.00, December +31.00, March 2015 +34.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,064 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 72 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,938 contracts of their long positions and added 5,097 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long cocoa by ratio of 3.78:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.62:1, but below the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.92:1.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, September coffee is the out performer with a gain of 3.28%, September cocoa +3.23%, October sugar -10.38%, December cotton -12.65%.

Year to date, September coffee is the out performer with a gain of 54.37%, September cocoa +18.29%, October sugar -5.34%, December cotton -18.13%.

Live cattle: On August 7, October cattle generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, October live cattle lost 6.00 cents, December -6.17, February 2015 -5.62. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,422 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 10,905 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,407 contracts of their long positions and added 2,084 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by ratio of 19.27:1, which is a dramatic leap from the previous week of 6.92:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 7.91:1.

The reason for the huge jump in this week’s ratio was the massive liquidation of short positions. Remarkably, managed money added to their long positions, and the net long position of manage money totals a huge 116,714 contracts.

The extremely high ratio of managed money longs in cattle is troubling, and in our view portends even lower prices than we had originally anticipated. The tabulation date for the COT report was August 5 and on August 6,total open interest increased by 2,658 contracts while on Thursday, August 7 total open interest declined by 2,523 contracts. In essence, for the two trading days after the tabulation of the COT report, total open interest was basically a wash indicating that liquidation was minimal.

Preliminary stats for trading on August 8 show an open interest decline of 3,016 contracts on volume of 50,157 contracts.With managed money holding a very large net long position, cattle prices are likely to decline further from here. Once October cattle breaks below 1.49000, the next area of support is OIA’s key pivot point of 1.47180 and then 1.46500.Conceivably, cattle could experience a similar style collapse seen in lean hogs due to the large speculative long position.

One point to keep in mind is the Russian ban of US poultry (among others)  means that US poultry stocks will increase. Russia accounts for 7% of US poultry exports and the loss of exports is most definitely negative for US poultry prices, a competitor to pork and beef. The price differential between poultry vis-à-vis pork and beef should continue to widen, which is likely to impact pork and beef prices negatively.

Lean hogs:

For the week, October lean hogs lost 3.50 cents, December -5.25, February 2015 -2.70. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,051 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,611 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 717 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,986 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long hogs by ratio of 6.83:1, which is a jump from the previous week of 6.08:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 5.29:1.

Remarkably, managed money is net long hogs by 52,914 contracts according to the latest COT report. Lean hogs suffer from the same problem as cattle, only it appears to be more acute. For example, the high close during July occurred on July 7 when the October contract closed at 1.17850, hogs then proceeded to collapse to a low of 97.500 on August 8 for a loss of 20.35 cents from the July 7 close. Remarkably, during this time the long to short ratio went from a high of 8.46:1 in the July 8 COT report to 6.83:1 on August 5 after October hogs had collapsed by 16.175 cents.Put another way, the net long position of manage money on July 8 was 57,196 and by August 5 had been reduced by only 4,282 contracts.In short, there remains plenty of fuel to fund a continued downside move in lean hogs, and rallies will likely be muted due to distressed sellers long at significantly higher prices looking to trim losses.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, October cattle is the out performer with a loss of 2.26%, December cattle – 2.47%, December hogs -9.58%, October hogs -12.80%.

Year to date, October hogs is the out performer with a gain of 18.60%, October cattle +14.42%, December cattle +13.98%, December hogs +12.14%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, September WTI crude oil lost 23 cents, October -10, November +11. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 18,915 contracts of their long positions and added 9,491 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,130 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,094 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio of 6.08:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 8.14:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 8.21:1.

The current week’s ratio is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of January 28, 2014 when managed money was long WTI crude oil by ratio of 5.83:1.The trading range encompassed by the report was $95.12 – 97.84.The breakdown of the long to short ratio shows that managed money is finally beginning to throw in the towel on crude oil. WTI’s performance during the past week has been abysmal, especially with Iraq sinking into civil war. As the extract from the August 5 report shows, the big untold story was that crude oil stocks have declined for 6 consecutive weeks totaling 22.6 million barrels while crude oil prices have been declining. When you combine this with the turmoil in Iraq, it seems almost inconceivable that prices would be declining at an accelerating rate. The Brent contract has fared a bit better than WTI in the 3rd quarter, but year to date stats show Brent has been weaker than WTI. In short, negative geopolitics is moving world oil prices lower.

From the August 5 report:

“Though we have been bearish ever since WTI generated a short-term sell signal on July 3 and the intermediate term sell signal on July 30, we have been surprised by the lack of a counter trend rally, even though crude oil stocks continue decline. In the report just released by the Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories declined again for the 6th week in a row, this time by 1.8  million barrels. The total inventory decline during the past 6 weeks amounts to 22.6 million barrels.This should be bullish, but the market is telling a different story.”

The intermediate term sell signal on July 11 turned into an intermediate term buy signal on Friday July 18. The close on that date for the September contract was $101.95. However, as the July 20 report correctly pointed out (below), the September contract needed to trade above 2 of OIA’s key pivot points (the pivot point range) in order to reverse the July 3 sell signal. Again, the July 20 report correctly stated if the market was unable to accomplish this and open interest acted bearishly, the market would turn lower and the intermediate term buy signal would be reversed. This occurred on July 30 when September WTI generated an intermediate term sell signal.

From the July 20 Weekend Wrap:

“On the other hand, September WTI generated an intermediate term buy signal on July 18. Additionally, the spread action has been very favorable with the September-December 2014 spread closing at $2.89, which is the highest close since June 23 ($3.00 premium to September).On June 23, the September contract closed at $105.42.”

“On July 3, August and September WTI generated a short-term sell signal and on July 11 generated an intermediate term sell signal. The short-term sell signal has not reversed and for this to occur September WTI must trade above 2 of OIA’s key pivot points: $102.34 and 103.82.The real battle for September crude will be to break above the pivot point range. If it is unable to accomplish this and open interest continues to act bearishly, we think the market will turn lower once again and the intermediate term buy signal generated on July 18 will be reversed. Stand aside.”

Heating oil:

For the week, September heating oil advanced 1.08 cents, October +87 points, November +76. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,060 contracts of their long positions and added 6,553 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 960 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 556 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by ratio of 1.62:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.24:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.01:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, September gasoline advanced 94 points, October + 1.38 cents, November +1.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,484 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 180 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,890 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,769 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long gasoline by ratio of 2.01:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 2.05:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.13:1.

Natural gas: September and October natural gas are getting close to generating a short-term buy signal.

For the week, September natural gas advanced 16.4 cents, October +15.8, November +16.0. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,373 contracts of their long positions and added 11,167 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,673 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 16,393 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is now short by ratio of’s 1.02:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when managed money was long by ratio of 1.05:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago when they were long by 1.10:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of November 26, 2013 when managed money was short natural gas by ratio of 1.07:1. The trading range encompassed by that report was 3.549 – 3.884. The trading range during the current report was 3.749 – 3.915. We view the net short position of manage money as a confirmation that the low of 3.725 made in the September contract on July 28 will turn out to be the seasonal low for the year.

Since making the low on July 28 through August 7, total open interest has declined by 21,269 contracts while September natural gas has advanced 11.1 cents in this time frame. This is bearish open interest action relative to the price advance, however it is not unexpected considering the bearish mindset of participants.

Last year at this time, October natural gas made seasonal low of 3.154 on August 8, 2013, then proceeded to rally to a high of 3.699 on September 4. The October contract made its major high at 3.820 on September 19, 2013, or a rally from a high for low of 66.6 cents. A 66.6 cent rally from the low of 3.725 made on July 28 would project a high of at least 4.391.Keep in mind, that natural gas stocks were considerably higher last year than they are today due to the extremely cold temperatures during the winter of 2013-2014. The heavy draw down of stocks during the winter has inventories below year ago levels. According to the Energy Information Administration report released on August 7, natural gas stocks were 538 Bcf less than last year at this time and 608 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,997 Bcf.

From the time September natural gas made its low on July 28 through August 8, the market has closed positively 6 times and closed lower on 3 occasions. For September natural gas to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of $4.000. The October contract will generate a short-term buy signal when the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point of 4.010. Once this occurs, natural gas should have a pullback lasting 1-3 days and this will be the opportunity to initiate bullish positions. If natural gas is unable to make its daily low above our pivot points, the market will trade sideways and possibly attempt to test the July 28 low. Until the buy signal is generated, we recommend a stand aside posture.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, September ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 2.42%, September heating oil -3.73%, October Brent crude oil -5.63%, September WTI crude oil -6.88%, September gasoline -8.60%, September natural gas -10.79%.

Year to date, September ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 19.89%, September WTI crude oil +2.98%, October Brent crude oil -1.73%, September gasoline -2.23%, September natural gas -4.29%, September heating oil -4.40%.

Copper: On August 6, September copper generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, September copper lost 4.10 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,617 contracts of their long positions and added 1,899 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 261 contracts of their long positions and added 3,891 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by ratio of 2.72:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.15:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.38:1.

The high ratio occurred 4 weeks ago (COT report of July 15) when managed money was long copper by ratio of 3.79:1.

In the July 20 Weekend Wrap after the release of the July 15 COT report on Friday, July 18, we wrote: “The lopsided position of manage money is important because it will add fuel for the downside move which we think is imminent.”

We have been warning clients away from copper for quite some time and are reprinting comments made from previous reports when copper was trading at its recent highs. Another factor, which we consider to be very bearish is that the Shanghai Composite Index has been rallying sharply since July 22, and through August 4 (which is the high close to date) advanced 8.25% while September copper lost 0.53% in the same time frame. The S&P 500 lost 1.76% during this time. The fact that copper was unable to hold its highs during the very strong rally in the Shanghai Composite Index underscores the weakness of the red metal.

More from the July 20 Weekend Wrap:

“On July 3, September copper made its high close of $3.2795, and since then has closed lower on 6 occasions and higher on 4. Since we only use final open interest stats for our reports, we will not review the action of Friday. However when examining price and open interest action from July 7 through July 17, the picture gets increasingly bearish. For example, from July 7 through July 17, total open interest has increased by a massive 25,836 contracts, which means that new short sellers are in command and driving prices lower.This is extremely bearish open interest action relative to the price decline. Also, it indicates that the massive long position held by managed money is not being liquidated as prices move lower. Eventually, as prices move lower, longs will be forced to sell, which in turn will drive prices still lower.”

From the July 27 Weekend Wrap:

“Last week, we wrote about why we thought it was likely copper would generate a short-term sell signal. However, copper surprised us by showing continued strength and making a daily low at exactly OIA’s key pivot point of 3.2380 on July 25. Despite copper’s continuing strength, we remain leery about the long side of the market. For example, the 50 day moving average of 3.1570 remains below the 200 day moving average of 3.1815. Additionally, year to date, September copper is trading down 3.46% and is in last place YTD for the metals we follow.We continue to advise a stand aside posture.”

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium lost $4.05. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 520 contracts of their long positions and added 1,207 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 206 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,469 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio of 4.07:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 5.12:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 5.69:1.

Platinum:

For the week, October platinum advanced $15.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,488 contracts of their long positions and added 380 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 35 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,616 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by ratio of 16.14:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 23.61:1, but above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 14.49:1.

Gold: On August 4, December gold generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on July 24.

For the week, December gold advanced $16.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 11,905 contracts of their long positions and added 6046 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,903 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 10,948 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by ratio of 3.74:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 5.01:1, and down dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 6.61:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the June 24 COT tabulation date when managed money was long gold by ratio of 3.88:1. The trading range encompassed by the June 24 report was $1268.00 – 1327.20.

Silver:

For the week, September silver lost 43 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,040 contracts of their long positions and added 5,868 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 539 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,433 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 2.99:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 5.76:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 6.19:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the June 24 COT tabulation date when managed money was long silver by ratio of 2.38:1.The trading range encompassed by the June 24 report was $19.710 -21.225

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, September palladium is the out performer with a gain of 2.25%, October platinum -0.64%, September copper -0.73%, December gold -1.22%, September silver -5.29%.

Year to date, September palladium is the out performer with a gain of 19.65%, December gold + 8.88%, October platinum +7.32%, September silver + 2.59%, September copper -5.50%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the September Canadian dollar lost 43 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 7,448 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 7,024 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the Canadian dollar by ratio of 1.29:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.24:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.10:1.

Australian dollar: On August 8, the September Australian dollar generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on August 1.

For the week, the September Australian dollar lost 32 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 6,989 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 742 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the Australian dollar by ratio of 2.72:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.94:1 but above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.57:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the September Swiss franc gained 5 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 785 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,222 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio of 2.44:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 1.86:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.69:1.

British pound:  On August 7, the September British pound generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on July 25.

For the week, the September British pound lost 55 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 13,570 contracts of their long positions and added 3,404 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the British pound by ratio of 2.38:1, which is down significantly from the ratio of the previous week of 2.78:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.99:1.

Euro:

The September euro lost 17 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 2,982 contracts of their long positions and added 20,072 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 2.81:1, which is up significantly from the previous week of 2.35:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.14:1.

Yen:

For the week, the September yen advanced 49 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 5,675 contracts to their long positions and also added 23,905 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by ratio of 4.29:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 4.32:1, but up dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.17:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the September dollar index advanced 8 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 5,840 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,956 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 1.27:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.36:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.39:1.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, the September dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 2.07%, September yen -0.76%, September Australian dollar -1.32%, September British pound -1.90%, September euro -2.08%, September Swiss franc -2.12%, September Canadian dollar -2.70%.

Year to date, the September Australian dollar is the out performer with a gain of 5.42%, September yen +3.01%, September British pound +1.45%, September dollar index +1.18%, September Swiss franc -2.03%, September Canadian dollar -2.62%, September euro -2.75%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the September S&P 500 futures contract advanced 5.20 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 2,410 contracts of their long positions and added 7,343 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 2.45:1, which is nearly double the previous week ratio of 1.28:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.48:1.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 1.00%, S&P 500 cash index -1.46%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index -1.62%, New York Composite cash index -2.63%, S&P 400 cash index -3.74%, Russell 2000 cash index -5.16%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 8.24%, S&P 500 cash index +4.50%, New York Composite cash index +2.80%, S&P 400 cash index +2.74%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index -0.14%, Russell 2000 cash index -2.77%.

10 year Treasury Note: On August 6 the September 10 year Treasury Note generated a short-term buy signal, which reverses the short-term sell signal generated on July 31. The September note remains on an intermediate term buy signal.