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The time frame for this week’s Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, December 3 through Tuesday, December 9.

Soybeans: On December 9, January and March soybeans generated a short-term buy signal, which reversed the short-term sell signal of December 3. Both January and March soybeans remain on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, January soybeans advanced 11.25 cents, March +11.75, May +11.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,999 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 18,138 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 9,591 contracts of their long positions and added 16,820 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio of 2.07:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.45:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.76:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, January soybean meal advanced 60 cents, March + $2.10, May +1.30. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 716 contracts of their long positions and added 2,799 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,618 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 7,239 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by ratio of 2.98:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.36:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.69:1.

The current ratio of 2.98:1 is the lowest since the COT report of October 28 when managed money was long soybean meal by ratio of 3.16:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, January soybean oil advanced 28 points, March +27, May +26. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 919 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,292 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,354 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,669 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by ratio 1.19:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.18:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.38:1.

Corn:

For the week, March corn advanced 12.50 cents, May +12.25, July +11.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 10,365 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 19,825 their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,637 contracts of their long positions and added 38,143 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by ratio of 3.51:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 2.75:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.88:1.

Remarkably, the current ratio of 3.51:1 is the highest since the COT tabulation date of May 20, 2014 when managed money was long corn by a ratio of 3.77:1. 

Chicago wheat:

For the week, March Chicago wheat advanced 12.50 cents, May +9.75, July +5.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,688 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,014 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,012 contracts of their long positions and added 11,222 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Chicago wheat by ratio of 1.07:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by 1.05:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.15:1.

The current ratio of 1.07:1 is the first time that managed money has been long Chicago wheat since the COT tabulation date of June 3, 2014 when they were long by a ratio of 1.11:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, March Kansas City wheat lost 5.00 cents, May -6.25, July -3.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 386 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,555 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,155 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,098 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 2.96:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.65:1 and up dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.62:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, March Chicago wheat is the out performer with a gain of 23.65%, January soybean meal +23.40%, March corn +22.19%, January soybeans +13.68%, March Kansas City wheat +12.91%, January soybean oil -0.89%.

Year to date, January soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 4.71%, March Kansas City wheat -6.14%, March Chicago wheat -6.51%, January soybeans -8.18%, March corn -11.61%, January soybean oil -19.68%.

Cotton:

For the week, March cotton advanced 90 points, May +54, July +55. The COT report revealed that managed money added 825 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,041 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,485 contracts of their long positions and added 292 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money short cotton by ratio of 1.03:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.08:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.08:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, March sugar lost 16 points, May -12, July -6. The COT report revealed that managed money added 660 contracts to their long positions and also added 580 their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,071 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 11,664 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by ratio of 1.31:1, which is the same as the previous week of 1.31:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.22:1.

Coffee:

For the week, March coffee lost 6.10 cents, May -6.10, July -6.05. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,509 contracts of their long positions and added 1,697 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,731 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,929 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by ratio of 4.67:1, down sharply from the previous week of 5.98:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 7.37:1.

The current ratio of 4.67:1 is the lowest since September 23, 2014 when managed money was long coffee by ratio of 4.91:1.

Cocoa: On December 8, March cocoa generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, March cocoa lost $33.00, May -35.00, July -41.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,702 contracts to their long positions and also added 758 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,057 contracts to their long positions and also added 7,800 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by ratio of 3.18:1, which is the same as the previous week of 3.17:1, But down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.43:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, March cotton is the out performer with a gain of 0.15%, March sugar -8.94%, March coffee -11.88%, March cocoa -12.34%.

Year to date, March coffee is the out performer with a gain of 41.41%, March cocoa +6.49%, March sugar -15.61%, March cotton -23.33%.

Live cattle:

For the week, February live cattle lost 2.70 cents, April -2.90, June -4.45. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 10,204 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,713 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,304 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 6,411 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by ratio of 10.63:1, which is up from the previous week of 9.97:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 12.40:1.

The reason for the increase in this week’s ratio was the liquidation of short positions which represented a significant percentage of outstanding short positions.

Lean hogs:

For the week, February lean hogs lost 2.37 cents, April -2.60, June -1.65. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,246 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 330 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,330 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 6,998 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by ratio of 4.07:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.36:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.22:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, April live cattle is the out performer with a loss of 0.37%, February live cattle -0.84%, April lean hogs -7.13%, February lean hogs -8.16%.

Year to date, February live cattle is the out performer with a gain of 22.77%, April live cattle +21.35%, February lean hogs + 3.35%, April lean hogs +2.93%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, January WTI crude oil lost $8.03, February -7.88, March -7.67. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,316 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,962 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,262 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,653 to their short positions. Remarkably, managed money remains long WTI crude oil by ratio of 4.36:1, which is up from the previous week of 4.12:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.19:1.

The current ratio of 4.36 exceeds the recent high ratios of 4.23:1 made in the report of September 20 and 4.20:1 in the October 21 report.

This past week January WTI crude oil broke through July 2009 support of 58.32 on the monthly continuation chart, and the next target is the May 2009 low of 50.43. With the massive long position of managed money, there should be more than enough fuel to fund a continued downside move as these professional money managers receive margin calls and either have to put up more money or be forced to liquidate. Adding to the downside pressure will be a significant absence of new buyers to catch the falling knife.

From the December 1 Weekend Wrap:

“According to the November 18 COT report, managed money was long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 3.62:1. In short, there are large numbers of professional money managers who have been long crude oil and will be forced to  liquidate positions. For those who remain stubbornly long, once WTI begins to rally, this class of speculator will be looking to trim losses, which will keep a lid on rallies. It has been reported from a variety of sources that investors are buying oil ETF’s in an attempt to pick a bottom in the market. When the public tries to pick a bottom in a market, it is guaranteed the market will continue to fall. Stand aside.”

Heating oil:

For the week, January heating oil lost 9.18 cents, February -13.68, March -15.30. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,123 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,131 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,276 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,349 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by ratio of 1.64:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.60:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.73:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, January gasoline lost 17.61 cents, February -17.41, March -17.36. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,122 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,043 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,093 contracts to their long positions and also added 13,976 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio of 3.74:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.14:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.57:1

The story of gasoline for the past several months has been one of broken support at critical price points. Major support of 1.8124 was broken this month, and this was the bottom for the market beginning in December 2009.This past week, another major area support, 1.6010, which was the low during July 2009 and September 2009 was taken out and the January contract closed below it. The next area support is the May 2009 low of 1.4460.With managed money still holding a massive long position, there is potential major selling pressure as these professional money managers receive margin calls and either put up more money or be forced to liquidate.

From the December 7 Weekend Wrap:

“It is remarkable that managed money is attempting to pick a bottom in the most vicious bear market in the petroleum complex since 2008-2009. As the pattern of the COT reports show, managed money has been increasing their long exposure during the past 3 reporting weeks: from 2.34:1, 2 weeks ago to 3.14:1 in the current report. In our view, this indicates that gasoline prices have lower to go until the bottom pickers are blown out of the market.”

Natural gas:

For the week, January natural gas lost 7 ticks, February – 7 ticks, March + 3 ticks.The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 18,784 contracts of their long positions and added 5,539 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 13,668 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 21,960 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by ratio of 1.12:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.01:1 and a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when managed money was long natural gas by ratio of 1.16:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, January ethanol was the out performer with a gain of 8.77%, January natural gas -11.14%, January heating oil -24.66%, January gasoline -33.19%, January Brent crude oil -35.87%, January WTI crude oil -36.15%.

Year to date, January ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 3.52%, January natural gas -14.05%, January heating oil -32.42%, January WTI crude oil -37.44%, January gasoline -38.50%, January Brent crude oil -41.87%.

Copper:

For the week, March copper advanced 3.15 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 372 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 207 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,257 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,552 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by ratio of 1.15:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.17:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.05:1.

Palladium:

For the week, March palladium advanced $13.85. The COT report revealed that managed money added 367 contracts to their long positions and also added 373 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 66 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 214 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio of 10.75:1, which is down from the previous week of 13.09:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 13.24:1.

Platinum: On December 11, January and April platinum generated a short-term buy signal but remain on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, January platinum advanced $12.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 283 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,061 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 10 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,451 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by ratio of 2.64:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.40:1 and up substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.90:1.

Gold: On December 11, February gold generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, February gold advanced $32.10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 12,844 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 9,185 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,664 contracts to their long positions and also added 12,310 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by ratio of 3.27:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.40:1 and up substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.91:1.

The current ratio of 3.27:1, is the highest since the COT report of August 26, 2014 when managed money was long gold by ratio of 3.20:1.

Silver: On December 11, March silver generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, March silver advanced 79.9 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 594 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,976 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,034 contracts of their long positions and added 1,579 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 2.11:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.55:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.32:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter March palladium is the out performer with a gain of 5.14%, February gold +1.00%, March silver -0.30%, March copper -2.89%, January platinum -5.43%.

Year to date, March palladium is the out performer with a gain of 12.94%, February gold +1.28%, January platinum -10.75%, March copper -12.59%, March silver -12.83%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the March Canadian dollar lost 1.00 cent. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 1,981 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 527 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Canadian dollar by ratio of 3.01:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.52:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.06:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the March Australian dollar lost 73 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 4,536 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,173 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Australian dollar by ratio of 1.86:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.83:1 and up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.53:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the March Swiss franc advanced 1.46 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 882 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 258 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio of 3.16:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.51:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.74:1.

British pound:

For the week, the March British pound advanced 1.26 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 3,020 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,891 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the British pound by ratio of 1.14:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.20:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.16:1.

Euro:

For the week, the March euro advanced 1.62 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 7,630 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 24,886 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 2.41:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 3.20:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.44:1.

Yen:

For the week, the March yen advanced 183 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 1,700 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 11,194 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by ratio of 2.95:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.12:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.96:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the March dollar index lost 98 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 618 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,882 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 1.03:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.10:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.13:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, the March Dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 2.66%, March Swiss franc -1.07%, March euro -1.45%, March Canadian dollar -2.96%, March British pound -3.00%, March Australian dollar -5.16%, March yen -7.62%.

Year to date, the March dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 9.49%, March British pound -4.89%, March Australian dollar -5.46%, March Canadian dollar -7.37%, March Swiss franc -8.18%, March euro -9.74%, March yen -11.52%.

S&P 500 (250 x): On December 12, the December and March S&P 500 futures contract and the E mini contracts generated short-term sell signals, but remain on an intermediate term buy signals.

For the week, the March S&P 500 futures contract lost 78.50 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 1,791 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 126 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 1.54:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.37:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.36:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter the Russell 2000 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 4.61%, NASDAQ 100 cash index +3.70%, S&P 400 cash index +2.29%, S&P 500 cash index +1.52%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +1.40%, New York Composite cash index -1.89%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 16.91%, S&P 500 cash index +8.33%, S&P 400 cash index +4.46%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index + 4.25%, New York Composite cash index +0.96%, Russell 2000 cash index -0.96%.