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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, January 28 through Tuesday, February 3.

The World Agriculture Supply Demand report (WASDE) will be released February 10.

Soybeans:

For the week, March soybeans advanced 12.50 cents, May +12.25, July +12.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 12,740 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,594 their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,381 contracts to their long positions and also added 18,533 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio of 1.13:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by ratio of 1.06:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was long soybeans by ratio of 1.18:1.

The ratio moving from net long to net short indicates that managed money is not sure about the direction of soybeans. March soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal, and therefore should be traded from the short side only.

Soybean meal:

For the week, March soybean meal lost 50 cents, May -90, July – $1.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 940 contracts of their long positions and added 5,257 to their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 2,478 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,142 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.89:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.22:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.01:1.

The current ratio of 1.89:1 is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of October 7, 2014 when managed money was long soybean meal by ratio 1.78:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, March soybean oil advanced 1.82 cents, May +1.80, July +1.76. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 10,593 contracts of their long positions and added 14,946 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 15,503 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 22,812 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is now short soybean oil by a ratio of 1.02:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by ratio of 1.47:1.Two weeks ago, managed money was long soybean oil by a stratospheric 2.60:1.

The ratio of 2.60:1 was the highest of 2015 and 2014. The high ratio of 2014 was 2.00:1, which occurred on April 29, 2014. We were amazed by the massive long position in soybean oil two weeks ago and thought the most plausible explanation was that index funds for buying soybean oil contracts for re-balancing purposes, but this proved to be incorrect.

Corn:

For the week, March corn advanced 15.75 cents, May +15.50, July – 15.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 9,496 contracts of their long positions and added a massive 46,569 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 14,848 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 9,864 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 1.64:1, which is down dramatically from the previous weeks ratio of 2.46:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.98:1.

The current ratio of 1.64:1 is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of October 21, 2014 when managed money was long corn by ratio of 1.61:1.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, March Chicago wheat advanced 24.25 cents, May +22.25, July +19.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 896 contracts to their long positions and also added 16,741 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interest added 16,753 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1287 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.40:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.18:1, and up substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.02:1.

The current ratio of 1.40:1 is the highest since the COT report of October 28, 2014 when managed money was short Chicago wheat ratio of 1.52:1.

Kansas City wheat: 

For the week, March Kansas City wheat advanced 21.50 cents, May +22.25, July +21.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,199 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,670 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,659 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,248 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.46:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.56:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.95:1.

Year to date, March soybean oil is the out performer with a loss of 1.00%, March corn -2.83%, March soybeans -4.89%, March soybean meal -5.24%, March Kansas City wheat -10.34%, March Chicago wheat -10.64%.

Cotton: On February 4, May cotton generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

March cotton advanced 2.23 cents, May +1.61, July +1.27. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,208 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 11,376 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 20,541 contracts of their long positions and added 6,763 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is now long cotton by ratio 1.20:1 which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by a ratio of 1.11:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short cotton by a ratio of 1.11:. 1

Sugar #11: On February 2, March sugar generated a short-term sell signal after generating an intermediate term sell signal on January 27.

For the week, March sugar lost 28 points, May -46, July -54. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,300 contracts of their long positions and added 25,673 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 19,479 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 20,225 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.19:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by ratio of  1.02:1. Two weeks ago, managed money we short by ratio of 1.19:1.

Coffee:

For the week, March coffee advanced 4.95 cents, May +4.95, July +4.90. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,026 contracts of their long positions and added 2,479 to their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 38 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,016 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by ratio of 1.81:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.13:1 and down substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.90:1.

Remarkably, the COT ratio of 1.81 is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of February 11, 2014 when managed money was long coffee by ratio of 1.67:1. In order to put the current ratio in perspective consider the following: The COT report of February 11, 2014 showed that managed money was net long by 16,703 contracts versus 15,887 in the latest report tabulated on February 3. 

In short, managed money had a larger net long position during February 2014 than they did in the latest report. The trading range of March 2014 coffee was 1.3205-1.4370, or approximately 20-30 cents below the price of the March contract on the February 3, 2015 tabulation date. On February 11, 2014, March coffee closed at 1.3715. It wasn’t until February 18, 2014 that the impact of the drought began to be felt, which started the massive rally in coffee.

During the past four COT reporting periods (January 13, January 20, January 27. February 3), commercial interests have been adding to their long positions and liquidating short positions. The January 13 report showed that commercials added 4,777 contracts to long positions and also added 1,757 contracts to shorts. The January 20 report revealed that commercial interests added 1,236 contracts to long positions and liquidated 3,051 of their short positions.The January 27 report showed that commercial interests added 1,382 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,288 of their short positions.The February 3 report showed that commercial interest liquidated 38 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,016 of their short positions. 

In summary, commercial interests have added 7,357 contracts to long positions and liquidated 7,598 of short positions during the past four reporting periods. We think it is only a matter of time before coffee begins its move higher. March coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. 

Cocoa:

For the week, March cocoa advanced $82.00, May +84.00, July +82.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2.349 contracts of their long positions and added 3.702 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4.562 to their long positions and liquidated 8.639 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money as long cocoa by a ratio of 3.75:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 5.28:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.76:1.

Year to date, March cotton is the out performer with a gain of 2.19%, March coffee +0.15%, March sugar -0.07%, March cocoa -4.64%. We find it amazing that managed money is twice as bullish on cocoa than coffee ( long by a ratio of 3.75:1 versus 1.81), yet year to date, coffee is by far the out performer.

Live Cattle:

For the week, April live cattle lost 1.25 cents, June -37 points, August -93. The COT report revealed that managed money added 373 contracts to their long positions and also added 6,521 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,810 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,322 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long-live cattle by ratio of 5.13:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 9.73:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 16.53:1.

The current ratio of 5.13:1 is the lowest we have seen since live cattle topped out on November 20, 2014 (April cattle 1.72750). The increase of short positions in this week’s report is by far the largest of the bear market.

Lean hogs:

For the week, April lean hogs lost 2.98 cents, June -3.05, August -2.73. The COT report revealed that managed money added 672 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 134 their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 465 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,605 of their short positions. Remarkably, managed money remains long lean hogs by ratio 2.31:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.27:1 and the ratio two weeks go up 2.27:1.

This week, the February lean hog contract made a low of 62.85, which is the lowest print since December 2009 (58.60). It seems inconceivable that managed money remains long lean hogs after the market has collapsed by 70.55 cents since July 2014.

Year to date, June live cattle is the out performer with a loss of 7.28%, April live cattle -7.74%, June lean hogs -12.50%, April lean hogs -16.44%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, March WTI crude oil advanced $3.45, April +4.30, May +4.16. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 9,065 contracts of their long positions and added 1,235 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,639 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,628 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 2.65:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.75:1 and the ratio two weeks: 3.08:1.

The current ratio of 2.65:1 is the lowest of the bear market, which began in July 2014. Note that the contango for March through May widened. This confirms the bearish nature of the rally.

Remarkably, the decline in crude oil prices during mid-2008 through early 2009 is eerily similar to the current decline. Both declines began in July and ended in January. For example, in 2008, WTI prices began falling during the month of July 2008 and fell for seven consecutive months until January 2009. In 2014, prices began falling in the month of July 2014 and fell for seven consecutive months through January 2015. From July 2014 through January 2015, WTI fell from a high of 106.09 to a low of 43.58.

From July 2008 through January 2009 WTI fell from a high of 147.27 to a low of 33.20. After bottoming in January 2009, WTI advanced for five consecutive months (February-June 2009) to a high of 73.38. The rebound in prices during 2009 lends credence to the possibility of a much stronger advance in the period just ahead. Although the economies of Asia and Europe are most definitely slowing, they are certainly far more robust today than in 2009, when a deep depression was considered a real possibility.

Brent crude oil: On February 3, March Brent crude oil generated a short term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

Heating Oil: On February 3, March heating oil generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, March heating oil advanced 13.83 cents, April +13.30, May +13.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 387 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 997 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,935 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 11,602 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains short heating oil by a ratio of 1.75:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.76:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.69:1.

Gasoline: On February 3, March gasoline generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, March gasoline advanced 8.03 cents, April +10.51, May +10.82. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,913 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,761 to their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 1,881 contracts of their long positions and added 731 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money as long gasoline by a ratio of 2.70:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.86:1, but up substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago a 2.18:1.

Note the March through May contracts showed a widening of the contango.

Natural Gas:

For the week, March natural gas lost 11.2 cents, April -8.5, May -6.9. The COT report revealed that managed money added 10,519 contracts to their long positions and also added 23,922 to their short positions. Commercial interest added 2,262 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,050 to their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.31:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.26:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.22:1.

The current ratio of 1.31:1 is the highest of the current bear market in natural gas. On December 1, OIA announced that natural gas generated a short and intermediate term sell signal. This past week, March natural gas made new contract low of 2.567, which is the lowest print on the continuation chart since August 1, 2012 (2.603).

Year to date, March gasoline is the out performer with the gain of 4.00%, March heating oil +2.02%, March Brent crude oil -0.70, March WTI crude oil -3.96%, March ethanol -11.56%, March natural gas -12.03%.

Copper:

For the week, March copper advanced 9.10 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,918 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 777 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 352 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,159 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.27:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.37:1 (the high ratio), but above the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.23:1.

Palladium:

For the week, March palladium advanced $8.90. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,120 contracts of their long positions and added 115 to their short positions. Commercial interest added 205 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,194 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 7.89:1, which is down from the previous week of 8.70:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 8.73:1.

Platinum:

For the week, April platinum lost $16.60. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 872 contracts of their long positions and added 1,077 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 118 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,476 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 3.25:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.75:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.99:1.

Gold:

For the week, April gold lost $44.60. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 5,800 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 889 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,427 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,503 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 8.81:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 8.71:1 and up dramatically from the ratio two weeks ago of 5.93:1.

Silver:

For the week, March silver lost 51.4 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,466 contracts of their long positions and added 1,371 to their short positions. Commercial interest added 1,082 to their long positions and liquidated 1,629 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money as long silver by a ratio of 5.29:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 6.43:1, but up substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.02:1.

Year to date, March silver is the out performer with a gain of 6.54%, April gold +4.56%, April platinum +3.54%, March palladium -1.71%, March copper -8.46%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, but March Canadian dollar advanced 95 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,640 contracts of their long positions and added 77 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 2.79:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.41:1, but down slightly from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.84:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the March Australian dollar advanced 14 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 170 contracts of their long positions and added 7,814 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by ratio 3.10:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.65:1, but down substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.03:1.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the March Swiss franc lost 1.22 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 206 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,229 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.47:1, which is down from the previous week up 1.74:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.09:1.

British Pound:

For the week, the March British pound advanced 1.76 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,420 of their long positions and liquidated 2,678 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the British pound by a ratio of 1.71:1, which is the same as the previous week of 1.71:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.71:1.

We cannot recollect an instance in which the ratio for any commodity or currency was the same for three consecutive weeks.

Euro:

For the week, the market euro advanced 27 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,826 contracts of their long positions and added 14,052 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 7.22:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 5.98:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 5.46:1.

The current ratio of 7.22:1 is the highest short ratio since the beginning of the current euro bear market.

Yen:

For the week, the March yen lost 118 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,620 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,604 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by a ratio of 5.68:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 4.94:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago a 5.98:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the March dollar index lost 14 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 3,686 of their long positions also liquidated 3,933 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 1.16:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.12:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.25:1.

Year to date, the March Swiss Franc is the out performer with a gain of 7.27%, March yen+ 0.72%, March British pound -2.19%, March Australian dollar -4.26%, March euro -6.44%, March Canadian dollar -7.15%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the March S&P 500 futures contract gained 64.70 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,108 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,500 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.12:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.17:1 but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.06:1.

Year to date, the S&P 400 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 1.68%,  New York Composite cash index + 0.08%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +0.01%, S&P 500 cash index -0.17%, NASDAQ 100 cash index -0.18%.

10 year Treasury Note: The March 10 year treasury note will generate a short-term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for February 6 of 128-190.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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