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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, April 8 through Tuesday, April 14.

Soybeans:

For the week, May soybeans advanced 17.25 cents, July +15.50, new crop November +10.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,735 of their long positions and added 24,086 contracts to their short positions.Commercial interests added 23,298 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,314 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybeans by a ratio of 1.81:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 1.32:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.26:1.

The current short ratio of 1.81:1 is the highest recorded during the course of the bear market, and is a complete reversal from the ratio recorded in the COT report of October 7, 2014 when managed money was long soybeans by a ratio of 1.24:1, and soybeans made their contract low on October 1. In short, managed money is heavily net short soybeans even though soybeans are trading above the October 1 contract low.

Soybean meal:

For the week, May soybean meal advanced $5.80, July +5.10, new crop December +3.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,546 of their long positions and added 14,781 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,162 to their long positions and liquidated 14,862 of their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean meal by a ratio of 1.38:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when managed money was long by a ratio of 1.03:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.33:1. This week is the first time that managed money assumed a net short position in futures.

 The current short ratio of 1.38:1, is a complete reversal from the ratio recorded per the COT report of October 7, 2014 when managed money was long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.78:1. The trading range encompassed by the current COT report is above the range traded during the time span encompassed by the October 7, 2014 COT report when soybean meal made its contract low (October 1, 2014). In short, managed money is massively bearish at current prices even though they are above prices recorded on October 1.

Soybean oil: On April 16,  May and July soybean oil generated short-term buy signals, but remain on intermediate-term sell signals.

For the week, May soybean oil gained 43 points, July +44, new crop December +35. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,917 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 7,035 of their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 3,430 of their long positions and added 6,961 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 1.30:1, which is up from the previous week up 1.11:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was short by a ratio of 1.03:1.

Corn:

For the week, May corn gained 2.75 cents, July +2.00, new crop December +0.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 10,424 of their long positions and added a massive 48,243 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 29,610 to their long positions and liquidated 8,362 of their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is short corn by a ratio of 1.38:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 1.03:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago 1.03:1.

The current short ratio of 1.38:1 is the highest recorded during the course of the bear market, and is a complete reversal from the ratio recorded per the October 7, 2014 COT report when managed money was long corn by ratio of 1.22:1. Managed money currently is massively short corn even though the July contract is trading approximately 10% above the October 1, 2014 contract low when managed money was net long. 

Although speculators and the trade are bearish corn, the fact remains that for the past two weeks, corn remains in a tight trading range. For the past two weeks, total open interest has increased substantially by 51,512 contracts, however, prices have actually risen fractionally during this time. In summary, the massive increase of open interest is not moving prices lower despite corn being in a bear market.

The moving average set up is potentially bullish with the 50 day standing at 3.94 1/4 and the 200 day, 3.95 3/4 as the planting season begins. Though July corn remains on the short and intermediate term sell signal, we think a stand aside posture makes sense at this juncture.

Chicago wheat: On April 14, May and July Chicago wheat generated short-term sell signals and remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, May Chicago wheat lost 32.00 cents, July -34.75, new crop December -33.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 456 contracts of their long positions and added 11,839 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,118 to their long positions and liquidated 6,251 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a new high short ratio of 2.57:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.33:1 and an increase from the previous high short ratio of 2.40:1.

Kansas City wheat: On April 14, May and July Kansas City wheat generated short term sell signals and remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, May Kansas City wheat lost 49.50 cents, July -47.75, new crop December -45.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,325 contracts of their long positions and added 5,410 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,042 their long positions and liquidated 4,136 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.06:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by a ratio of 1.33:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.20:1.

The current short ratio of 1.06:1 is a complete reversal from that ratio recorded for the October 7, 2014 COT report when managed money was long Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.22:1.This is the first time managed money has been net short KC wheat in several months.

Year to date, July soybean oil is the out performer with a loss of 2.57%, July soybeans -5.99%, July corn -6.41%, July soybean meal -7.60%, July Chicago wheat -16.82%, July Kansas City wheat -19.36%.

Thus far in the second quarter, July soybean oil is the out performer with a gain of 3.72%, July corn +0.93%, July soybeans -0.46%, July Chicago wheat -3.37%, July soybean meal -3.61%, July Kansas City wheat -8.94%.

Cotton: July cotton will generate a short-term sell signal is the daily high is a low OIA’s key pivot point for April 17 of 63.77.

For the week, July cotton lost 2.11 cents, new crop December -1.97, March 2016 -1.54. The COT report revealed that managed money added 8,408 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,481 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,010 of their long positions and added 8,087 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 3.46:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 2.48:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.11:1.

Sugar #11: On April 17, July sugar generated a short term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, May sugar gained 41 points, July +40, October +31. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4561 of their long positions and also liquidated 26,303 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 34,288 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,795 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.62:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.76:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.82:1.

Coffee:

For the week, May coffee gained 3.60 cents, July +3.55, September +3.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 418 contracts of their long positions and added 2,813 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,554 to their long positions and liquidated 3,858 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.26:1, which is above the previous week’s ratio of 1.16:1, but slightly below the record high short ratio of 1.28:1 made two weeks ago.

Cocoa: On April 14, July cocoa generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, July cocoa advanced $58.00, September +61.00, December +60.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,097 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,370 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,152 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,468 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 1.79:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.68:1 and down slightly from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.81:1.

Year to date, July cotton is the out performer with a gain the 3.64%, July cocoa -1.83%, July sugar -1.26%, July coffee -18.07%.

Thus far in the second quarter July sugar is the out performer with a gain of 10.98%, July cocoa +5.19%, July coffee +4.36%, July cotton +0.30%.

Live cattle: On April 13, June live cattle generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, June live cattle gained 20 ticks, August +12, October -17. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,747 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,156 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 157 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,686 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 5.97:1, which is up from the previous week of 5.30:1 and up substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.96:1.

The current ratio of 5.97:1 is the highest since 9.73:1 recorded from the January 27, 2015 COT report. Remarkably, managed money was massively long in the January 27 report even though the trading range encompassed by the report was substantially below the trading range spanning the current report (1.47850–1.52350). During the January 27 report, June live cattle traded in a range of 1.40975-1.47300. In short, managed money was considerably less bullish in the current report even though prices were trading substantially above the range of the January 27 report.

We are reprinting the report on live cattle from the April 12 report published last Sunday. First, June live cattle did in fact generate a short-term sell signal as we had said it would. Second, the June contract rallied from August 14 through August 15,(we said the rally would last from one to two days after the generation of the sell signal) and it lasted for three. On Friday April 17, the live cattle market collapsed, down the 3.00 cent limit and lost the gains of the previous three days.

From the April 12 Weekend Wrap:

“It appears likely that a short-term sell signal in June live cattle will be generated during the next couple of days.The major moving averages are in a bearish set up with the 50 day moving average of 1.46680, 100 day 1.50379 and the 200 day moving average of 1.50318. Additionally, year to date, June live cattle is trading 4.36% lower, 180 days -4.91% and for the past 90 days is- 1.23%.”

“Looking at the trading range for the past 52 weeks, June live cattle closed 8.67% off the contract high of 1.62925 made on November 21, 2014 on April 10 while it is 11.40% above the 52-week low of 1.33575 made on April 21, 2014. In short, the June contract is trading somewhat above the midpoint of the 52-week range.”

“On Friday, June live cattle closed 2.775 cents lower. Preliminary stats from trading on April 10 show that open interest increased slightly. We will reserve judgement until the final stats have been published, but if there is an open interest increase, this is bad news for bulls. Although we will publish a new pivot point on Monday, based on Friday’s trading if the daily high is below 1.49980, a short-term sell signal will likely be generated in the June contract. Feeder cattle have been weak of late and from April 6 through April 10 the May contract lost 3.30% versus the June live cattle contract losing 2.07%. It is likely that May feeders will generate a short-term sell signal on Monday.”

“After the generation of sell signals, fat and fed cattle will likely rally for a day or two before resuming the downtrend.”

Lean hogs:

For the week, June lean hogs lost 1.88 cents, August -1.67, October -43 points. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,259 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,182 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,478 of their long positions and added 3,018 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.23:1, which is above the previous week’s ratio of 1.16:1 (the low ratio thus far in the bear market), and slightly below the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.25:1.

Year to date, August live cattle is the out performer with a loss of 3.84%,June live cattle -4.23%, August lean hogs -14.06%, June lean hogs -16.69%.

Thus far in the second quarter, June lean hogs is the out performer with a gain of 0.30%,August lean hogs -0.39%, August live cattle -2.10%, June live cattle -2.34%.

WTI crude oil: On May and June WTI crude oil generated intermediate term buy signals after generating short-term buy signals on April 7.

For the week, May WTI crude oil advanced $4.10, June +3.81, July +3.68. The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,155 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 14,980 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 40,965 contracts to their long positions and also added 59,805 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 3.29:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.82:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.18:1.

The current ratio of 3.29:1 is the highest since the COT report of February 17 when managed money was long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 3.07:1. The trading range encompassed by the February 17 report was 48.08-54.15 for the March 2015 contract.

Brent crude oil: On April 15, June Brent crude oil generated short and intermediate term buy signals.

Heating oil: On April 15 May and June heating oil generated short and intermediate term buy signals.

For the week, May heating oil gained 11.63 cents, June +11.54, July +11.43. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,668 to their long positions and liquidated 3,153 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,438 of their long positions and added 7,750 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.79:1, which is down substantially from the previous high short ratio of 2.36:1, and below the ratio recorded two weeks ago of 1.98:1.

Gasoline: On April 15 May and June gasoline generated intermediate term buy signals and generated short term buy signals on April 16.

For the week, May gasoline advanced 12.26 cents, June +12.71, July +12.72. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,915 of their long positions and added 4,080 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,097 to their long positions and also added 2,861 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.37:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.63:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.58:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, May natural gas gained 12.3 cents, June +12.1, July +11.9. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,779 contracts of their long positions and also added 22,479 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,654 to their long positions and also added 6,539 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.65:1, which is an increase from the previous week’s ratio of 1.60:1 and the ratio of 1.59:1 made two weeks ago.

The current short ratio of 1.65:1 is the highest recorded in at least one year.

Year to date, May gasoline is the out performer with a gain of 11.20%, June Brent crude oil +10.70%, May heating oil +4.77%, June WTI crude oil +2.34%, May ethanol -1.05%, May natural gas -9.16%.

Thus far in the second quarter, June WTI crude oil is the out performer with a gain of 16.95%, June Brent crude oil +15.33%, May heating oil +10.41%, May gasoline + 9.42%, May ethanol +8.27%, May natural gas -0.04%.

Copper:

For the week, July copper advanced 3.35 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,820 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,743 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 138 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,940 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by a ratio of 1.51:1, which is approximately the same ratio as the previous week, 1.52:1, and down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.59:1.

Palladium:

For the week, June palladium advanced $6.90. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 639 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,043 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 457 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,048 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 6.79:1, which is up from the previous week of 5.10:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago, 4.68:1 (the low ratio thus far in the bear market).

Platinum:

For the week, July platinum lost $3.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 639 contracts of their long positions and added 458 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 245 contracts to their long positions also added 1,836 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.97:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.06:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.76:1.

Gold:

For the week, June gold lost $1.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,308 contracts of their long positions and added 5,318 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,082 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,696 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.77:1, which is down from the previous week’s 1.98:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.53:1.

Silver: On April 14 May and July silver generated intermediate term sell signals, but remain on short term buy signals.

For the week, July silver lost 15.3 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2958 other long positions and added 5676 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1649 of their long positions and also liquidated 3926 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 1.94:1,, which is down substantially from the previous week of 2.73:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.62:1.

Year to date, July silver is the out performer with a gain of 4.57%, June gold +1.59%, July copper -1.10%, June palladium -1.63%, July platinum -3.48%.

Thus far in the second quarter, June palladium is the out performer with a gain of 6.81%, July platinum +2.16%, July copper +1.95%, June Gold +1.74%, July silver -1.84%.

Canadian dollar: On April 16 the June Canadian dollar generated short and intermediate term buy signals. The Canadian dollar began the counter trend pullback on Friday, and we expect another day or two of correction before the market tests the April 17 high of 82.67. The short term buy signal will reverse if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 17 of 79.17.

For the week, the June Canadian dollar advanced 2.25 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,339 to their long positions and also added 1,408 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 4.10:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.90:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago a 6.59:1.

Australian dollar: On April 17, the June Australian dollar generated a short term buy signal, but remains on intermediate-term sell signal. OIA expects the Aussie dollar to correct for 1-3 days before resuming the uptrend. For the short term buy signal to reverse, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for April 17 of 76.09.

For the week, the June Australian dollar gained 99 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 3,206 contracts of their long positions and added 1,252 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 5.22:1, which is up from the previous week of 4.11:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.69:1.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the June Swiss franc advanced 2.62 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 519 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 513 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.70:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.66:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago, 1.44:1.

British Pound: On April 17, the June British pound generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal. OIA expects the June pound to correct from 1-3 days before resuming the uptrend. For the short term buy signal to reverse,the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for April 17 of 1.4752.

For the week, the June British pound gained 3.11 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 3,047 of their long positions and also liquidated 7,687 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the British pound by a ratio of 1.81:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.87:1 but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.72:1.

Euro:

For the week, the June euro gained 1.87 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 9,085 to their long positions and also added 3,246 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 7.15:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week’s high short ratio of 11.23:1, and down from the ratio two weeks ago of 8.51:1.

Yen:

For the week, the June yen gained 97 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,039 to their long positions and also added 4,364 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 2.09:1, which is exactly the same as the previous week’s ratio, 2.09:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago, 2.28:1.

Dollar index: The June dollar index will generate a short-term sell signal is the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 17 of 97.532. The rally will resume if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 17 of 98.853.

For the week, the June dollar index lost 1.89 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 863 contracts of their long positions and added 2,360 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the dollar index by a ratio of 2.35:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.09:1 and about the same as the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.34:1.

Year to date, the June dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 7.93%, June Swiss franc +4.12%, June Yen +0.69%, June British pound -3.96%, June Australian dollar -4.53%, June Canadian dollar -4.73%, June euro -10.74%.

Thus far in the second quarter, the June Canadian dollar is the out performer with a gain of 3.68%, June Australian dollar +2.28%, June Swiss franc +1.90%, June yen +0.95%, June British pound +0.79%, June euro +0.59%, June dollar index -0.99%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the June S&P 500 futures contract lost 20.00 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,105 contracts to their long positions and also added 11 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.23:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.76:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago, 3.46:1.

Thus far in 2015, the S&P 500 is following the pattern of 2014: Year to date through April 17, 2014 the S&P 500 had gained 0.89% and YTD 2015 the index has advanced 1.08%. From the April 11, 2014 low of 1878.04, the S&P 500 proceeded to rally to the July 24 high of 1991.39 before turning lower. The year to date performance for 2014-15 is the worst since 2009 (-3.73%).

We will know shortly whether Friday’s sharp sell-off was a one day event. The June S&P 500 E mini will generate a short-term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 17 of 2062.65. In last weekend’s report, we recommended the initiation of straddles and strangles to protect against downside risk.

From the April 12 Weekend Wrap:

“OIA has been a proponent of at-the-money straddles in longer dated index options to protect against asymmetric downside risk. If clients are concerned about cost, a suitable alternative is to initiate strangles, which are out of the money long calls and puts. This offers a strong measure of protection in the event of a market meltdown and the put side of the spread will more than compensate for the loss on the call side in the event of a debacle.”

From the April 5 Weekend Wrap:

“We examined the performance of the S&P 500 cash index during April and found that the market had a tendency to make bottoms around mid-month. For example during 2011 the S&P 500 bottomed on April 18; for 2012, it bottomed on April 10; the index bottomed on April 18 in 2013 and during 2014 bottomed on April 11. In short, it appears the broad market is in a bearish set up for at least one more week and possibly two.”

Year to date, the S&P 400 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 4.36%, Russell 2000 cash index +3.92%, NASDAQ 100 cash index +2.73%, New York Composite cash index +2.02%, S&P 500 cash index +1.08%, Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.02%.

Thus far in the second quarter, the New York composite cash index is the out performer with a gain of 1.46%, S&P 500 cash index +0.64%, NASDAQ 100 cash index +0.42%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +0.28%, Russell 2000 cash index -0.07%, S&P 400 mid-cap cash index -0.54 per cent.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the June 10 year treasury note gained 1.00 point. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 33,187 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,356 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year treasury note by a ratio of 1.41:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.52:1, but above the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.35:1.