For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

The trading week for this report ended on April 2 (Thursday) due to the Good Friday holiday.

The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, March 25 through Tuesday, March 31.

Soybeans:

For the week, May soybeans gained 18.75 cents, July +19.00, new crop November+25.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,486 contracts to their long positions and also added 11,150 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 12,419 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,805 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybeans by a ratio of 1.26:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.16:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.18:1.

The current ratio of 1.26:1 is the highest short ratio recorded during the course of the bear market.

Soybean meal:

For the week, May soybean meal gained $5.90, July +6.10, new crop December +7.60. The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,751 to their long positions and liquidated 469 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,533 of their long positions and added 5,880 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.33:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.14:1 (the low ratio thus far in the bear market), and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.26:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, May soybean oil gained 44 points, July +41, new crop December +39. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,741 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,557 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,546 to their long positions and liquidated 2,810 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean oil by a ratio of 1.03:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by a ratio of 1.08:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.09:1.

Corn:

For the week, May corn lost 4.50 cents, July -4.50, new crop December -4.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 10,336 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 25,301 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 11,294 to their long positions and also added 10,717 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short corn by ratio of 1.03:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.11:1 and down substantially from the high short ratio of 1.34:1 made two weeks ago. 

Chicago wheat:

For the week, May Chicago wheat gained 28.50 cents, July +23.75, new crop December +23.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,494 of their long positions and added 5,091 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,122 to their long positions and liquidated 2,464 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 2.40:1, up from the previous week of 2.24:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.26:1.

The current short ratio of 2.40:1 is the highest recorded during the course of the bear market. Interestingly it is coming at a time when May Chicago wheat is trading at its highest level in several weeks. For the past four weeks (March 9, March 16, March 23, March 30) the weekly lows have been higher and the weekly highs have been higher. Additionally, the May contract closed at a 0.50 cent premium to July for the first time since December 19, 2014 when the May contract sold at a 0.75 cent premium to the July contract and May 2015 Chicago wheat closed at 6.35.May Chicago wheat remains on a short term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, May Kansas City wheat gained 29.75 cents, July +28.25, new crop December +23.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,205 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,118 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 656 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,269 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.23:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.13:1.

Year to date, May soybean meal is the out performer with the loss of 3.99%, May soybean oil -4.05%, May soybeans -4.32%, May corn -4.74%, May Kansas City wheat -7.72%, May Chicago wheat -9.80%.,

Cotton: May cotton will generate a short-term buy signal is the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 2 of 63.33 and will generate an intermediate term buy signal if the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 2 63.13

For the week, May cotton gained 14 points, July +7, new crop December -14. The COT report revealed that managed money added 617 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,599 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,343 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,233 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 2.11:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.78:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.49:1.

Cotton has been holding up extremely well, and is in a potential bullish set up. First, the seasonal trend is favorable from this point through mid-to-late May., Additionally, the moving averages are in a bullish setup:  5 day moving average of 63.09, 20 day moving average of 62.34, 50 day 62.47, 100 day 61.68. We expect to see the 20 day moving average cross above the 50 day moving average in short order.

Sugar #11:

For the week, May sugar gained 61 points, July +51, October +34. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,668 to their long positions and also added 7,252 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 18,085 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,736 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by ratio of 1.82:1, which is down from the previous week’s ratio of 1.86:1 (the high ratio thus far in the bear market), but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.75:1.

Coffee:

For the week, May coffee gained 2.70, July +2.25, September +2.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,336 of their long positions and added 87 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interest added 2,624 to their long positions and also added 2,547 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.28:1, which is up from last week’s ratio of 1.23:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.17:1.

The current short ratio of 1.28:1 is the highest recorded during the bear market.

Commercial interests are now net short by 8,130 contracts or a short ratio of 1.10:1.Per the February 17 COT report commercial interests were net short by 33,366 contracts or short ratio of 1.56:1.On December 2, 2014 commercials were net short by 64,429 contracts, or short ratio of 2.51:1.The pattern is quite clear: commercial interests are getting increasingly bullish on coffee as prices decline.

As we stated in last week’s report, the increase of short positions held by managed money has not been moving prices lower. This week, we saw an excellent performance for coffee and Thursday’s trading performance was outstanding. Preliminary stats from the exchange show that volume traded was over 50,000 contracts and that open interest increased by over 7,000 contracts. This is the first indication that coffee is about to generate a short-term buy signal.

Although, we will have a new pivot point on Monday, the most recent calculation shows that if the low for the day is above 1.4011 for the May contract, a short-term buy signal will be generated. In Monday’s report for April 2, we will provide the pivot for the July contract as well.When the buy signal occurs, it will do so with a significant spec short position and they will provide significant and substantial buying power once the computer generated programs of CTA’s realize they are on the wrong side of the trade.

From the March 29 Weekend Wrap:

“Although, managed money has increased their net short position since the March 3 COT report, this is not pressuring prices lower. For example, from March 4 through March 24 the net short position of managed money increased from 2,112 in the March 3 report to 8,500 in the March 24 report. However, prices for May coffee from March 4 through March 24 declined only 0.18%, essentially unchanged. Total open interest increased by 13,389 contracts from March 4 through March 24, but again this did not move prices lower.”

Cocoa:

For the week, May cocoa gained $24.00, July +23.00, September +15.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,620 of their long positions and added 1,353 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4606 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 909 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 1.81:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.99:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago a 3.16:1.

This is the third COT report in a row in which commercial interests have added to long positions and liquidated short positions.In summary, during the past three COT reporting periods, commercial interests have added 16,241 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,910 of their short positions.

From the March 29 Weekend Wrap:

“For the past two COT reporting periods, commercials have been adding to long positions and liquidating short positions. In the report of March 17, commercials added 11,635 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,001 of their short positions. In summary, commercial interests have increased long positions by 18,025 contracts while they have liquidated short positions by 11,603 contracts. During this time (March 11- March 24), May cocoa has declined $130.00.”

“The fundamentals for cocoa are constructive, however May cocoa generated a short-term sell signal on March 11 and an intermediate term sell signal on March 12. Stand aside.”

Year to date, May cotton is the out performer with the gain of 4.29%, May cocoa -4.29%, May sugar -14.61%, May coffee -16.78%.

Live cattle:

For the week, April live cattle gained 40 points, June +40, August +13. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,347 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,416 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,441 to their long positions and also added 6,662 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 4.96:1, which is down from the previous week of 5.14:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.26:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, April lean hogs gained 2.05 cents, June +70 points, August +1.00 cent. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,282 of their long positions and added 1,797 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,817 to their long positions and liquidated 3,113 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.25:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.37:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.56:1.

The current ratio of 1.25:1 is the lowest of the bear market, which began in mid-2014.

Year to date, April live cattle is the out performer with a loss of 0.41%, June live cattle -1.41%, June lean hogs -17.31%, April lean hogs -23.79%.

 WTI crude oil:

For the week, May WTI crude oil gained 27 cents, June +10, July -8. The COT report revealed that managed money added 9,501 contacts to their long positions and liquidated 23,988 of their short positions. Commercial interest added 9,649 to their long positions and also added 18,947 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 2.18:1, which is up from the previous week’s ratio of 1.82:1 (the low ratio thus far in the bear market) and the ratio of two weeks ago of a 1.85:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, May heating oil lost 3.67 cents, June -3.48, July -3.30.The COT report revealed that managed money added 332 contracts to their long positions and also added 373 to their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 658 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,747 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.98:1, which is about the same as the previous week of 1.99:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.66:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, May gasoline lost 3.20 cents, June -2.98, July -2.86. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,301 of their long positions and added 1,784 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 12,160 to their long positions and also added 6,721 to their short positions, As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.58:1, which is down from last week’s ratio of 1.70:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.84:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, May natural gas gained 7.4 cents, June +7.4, July +7.1. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,937 contracts of their long positions and added a massive 36,425 to their short positions. Commercial interest added 1,672 to their long positions and also added 3,192 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.59:1, which is up sharply from the previous week of 1.36:1 and up substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.23:1.

The short ratio of 1.59:1 is the highest recorded during the current bear market in natural gas. Although managed money is very bearish natural gas, the fact remains that prices are above the recent 2015 low of 2.567 made during February in the March contract, and considerably above the previous major low of 2.168 made in June 20 2012. The lowest price for natural gas during the past five years occurred during April 2012 when natural gas made a low of 1.902, the lowest print going back to April 2010.

Year to date, May gasoline is the out performer with the gain of 1.59%, May ethanol -3.93%, May Brent crude oil -4.17%, May heating oil -6.46%, May natural gas -6.61%, May WTI crude oil -10.19%.

Copper:

For the week, May copper lost 3.35 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,388 contracts to their long positions also added 336 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 44 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,400 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by a ratio of 1.59:1, which is up in the previous week of 1.53:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.10:1.

Palladium:

For the week, June palladium gained $5.30. The COT report revealed that managed money added 244 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,429 to their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 44 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,922 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 4.68:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 7.00:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 7.30:1.

The current ratio of 4.68:1 is the lowest seen in several months.

Platinum:

For the week, July platinum gained $14.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 634 contracts to their long positions liquidated 3,249 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 790 of their long positions also liquidated 125 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.76:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.48:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.53:1.

Gold:

For the week, June gold gained $1.10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,024 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 19,597 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,157 of their long positions and added 2,872 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.53:1, which is up from the previous week’s ratio of 1.13:1 (the low ratio going back several months) and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.24:1.

Silver:

For the week, May silver lost 36.8 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,855 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 6,962 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,973 of their long positions and added 4,014 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 2.62:1, which is up sharply from the previous week of 1.74:1 and nearly double the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.36:1.

Year to date, May silver is the out performer with a gain of 9.50%, June gold +1.38%, May copper -3.24%, July platinum -4.60%, June palladium -6.31%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the June Canadian dollar gained 21 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,087 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,270 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 6.59:1, which is up from the previous week of 5.99:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago a 4.45:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the June Australian dollar lost 1.70 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,433 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,371 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 3.69:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.98:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.28:1.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the June Swiss franc gained 13 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 84 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,188 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.44:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.81:1 but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.01:1.

British Pound:

The June British pound lost 51 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 72 contracts of their long positions and added 172 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the British pound by a ratio of 1.72:1, which is up fractionally from the previous week of 1.71:1 and substantially above the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.49:1.

Euro:

For the week, the June euro lost 11 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 758 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 8,798 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 8.51:1, which is down from the previous week of 9.25:1, but up substantially from the ratio of 5.98:1 made two weeks ago.

Yen:

For the week, the June yen lost 43 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 4,170 to their long positions and liquidated 9,957 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by ratio of 2.28:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 3.07:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.89:1.

Dollar index: The June dollar index will generate a short-term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 3 of 97.341.

For the week, the June dollar index gained 15 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,813 of their long positions and added 3,966 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 2.34:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.92:1 but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.80:1.

Year to date, the June dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 8.02%, June Swiss franc +3.60%, June yen +0.02%, June British pound -4.84%, June Australian dollar -6.98%, June Canadian dollar -7.72%, June euro -10.12%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

The June S&P 500 futures contract gained 6.90 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 345 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,710 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 3.46:1, which is a huge jump from the previous week of 1.32:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.17:1.

On March 26, the June S&P 500 E mini generated a short-term sell signal, and the market has been acting in perfect harmony with the signal. After it was generated, the E mini had a two-day rally and then resumed the downtrend. This is in accordance with OIA’s protocols after the generation of a sell signal. Additionally, open interest has been acting in a consistent bearish fashion during this period: open interest declining on price advances and increasing on price declines.

We examined the performance of the S&P 500 cash index during April and found that the market had a tendency to make bottoms around mid-month. For example during 2011 the S&P 500 bottomed on April 18; for 2012, it bottomed on April 10; the index bottomed on April 18 in 2013 and during 2014 bottomed on April 11. In short, it appears the broad market is in a bearish set up for at least one more week and possibly two.

Year to date, the S&P 400 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 4.92%, Russell 2000 cash index +4.23%, NASDAQ 100 +1.80%, New York Composite cash index +1.05%, S&P 500 cash index +0.39%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index -0.34%.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the June 10 year treasury note gained 10-6 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 15,674 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 20,469 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year treasury note by a ratio of 1.35:1, which is the same as the previous week of 1.35:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.40:1.