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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, August 5 through Tuesday, August 11.

Soybeans:

For the week, September soybeans lost 50.25 cents, new crop November -46.75, January 2016 -46.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,401 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,318 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,727 of their long positions and added 22,125 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by a ratio of 2.95:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.58:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago a 3.06:1.

As of the current report, managed money is net long soybeans 66,264 contracts of soybeans.

During the past two COT reports, managed money has liquidated only 4,831 contracts of their long positions, while liquidating 395 contracts of their short positions in this time frame. In other words, managed money was liquidating short positions as prices were going down.

This is remarkable considering the magnitude of the downside move: From July 22 when September soybeans topped at $10.10 and made a low of 9.37 1/2 on July 27 and a secondary low of 9.39 1/2 on August 3, then rallied to a high of 10.09 1/2 on August 10. Despite, the sharp moves down and up, managed money barely changed their holdings of long and short positions.

On August 12, the day of the USDA report when the September contract lost 62.50 cents, total open interest increased by 10,716 contracts. Remarkably, even a move of the magnitude seen on that day was not enough to shake loose the substantial net long position.

Similar to corn, managed money soybean longs are showing horrific losses, but the difference between soybeans and corn is that managed money has not added to their soybean short positions, at least according to the numbers reflected in the two most recent COT reports.

In summary, soybeans will suffer the dual punishment of new short-sellers entering the market and distressed longs liquidating. Also, with soybean meal on a short-term sell signal, the second leg of the stool has collapsed, which had supported soybeans.

Soybean meal: On August 13, September, October and December soybean meal generated short-term sell signals, but remain on intermediate term buy signals.

For the week, September soybean meal lost $19.10, new crop December -18.50, January 2016 -17.60. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 666 contracts of their long positions and added 1,638 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,944 to their long positions and also added 1,430 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybean meal by a ratio of 2.67:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.82:1 and the ratio two weeks ago a 2.70:1.

As of the latest report, managed money is net long 55,765 contracts of soybean meal.

Although the net long position of managed money is considerable in corn and soybeans, compared to soybean meal, the net long position is off the charts relatively speaking. For example the net long position of managed money in corn (92,153 contracts) represents approximately 6.6% of total open interest of 1,404,034 in all contract months. For soybeans, the net long position of 66,264 contracts represents approximately 10% of the total open interest of 661,064 in all contract months.

However, for soybean meal the net long position of managed money of 55,705 contracts represents approximately 14.4% of the total open interest in all contract months of 386,050.

As a result, the selling pressure exerted by this massive net long position should make soybean meal the relative under performer until a good portion of this position has been liquidated.

Soybean oil:

For the week, September soybean oil lost 1.05 cents, new crop December -1.06, January 2016 -1.03. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,066 to their long positions and liquidated 1,315 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 425 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 473 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean oil by a ratio of 1.12:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.20:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.01:1.

During the past week, September, December and January 2016 soybean oil contracts made new contract lows of 28.50, 28.79 and 29.09 respectively. 

Corn: On August 13, September and December corn generated intermediate-term sell signals after generating short-term sell signals on July 27.

For the week, September corn lost 8.75 cents, new crop December -8.25 March 2016 -7.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 8,854 of their long positions and added 49,180 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interest added 13,155 contracts of their long positions and liquidated 10,270 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 1.55:1, which is down substantially from the ratio of the previous week of 2.26:1 and a collapse from the ratio two weeks ago of 4.96:1.

During the past week, September, December and March 2016 contracts made new contract lows of 3.46 1/2, 3.57 1/2, and 3.68 3/4 respectively.

As of the latest COT report, managed money is net long corn by 92,153 contracts.

During the past two COT reporting periods, managed money has added an astounding 110,435 contracts to their short positions. However, they have liquidated only 27,786 contracts of their long positions. From July 22 (which begins the COT report tabulated on July 28 through August 11, the tabulation of the second report) September corn fell from a high of 4.07  1/2 on July 22 to a low of 3.65 on August 3. Clearly, managed money longs have horrific losses, and as much as we hate to repeat ourselves, this overhang of long positions is a barrier to any sustained rally.

Although, the dominant action for the past two COT reporting periods has been the aggressive short selling by managed money, we think the next leg down will be fueled by distressed managed money long liquidation. Once managed money builds a substantial net short position, corn may be in a position to rally if the USDA makes some adjustments to their reports in September or October. For now, the path of least resistance is lower.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, September Chicago wheat lost 4.00 cents, December -4.00, March 2016 -6.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added ,2000 contracts to their long positions and also added 268 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,778 of their long positions also liquidated 2,288 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.18:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.21:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was long Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.07:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, September Kansas City wheat lost 3.25 cents, December -3.75, March 2016 -3.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 13 contracts of their long positions and added 1,754 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,698 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,741 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is above the previous week of 1.16:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.01:1.

During the past week, September, December and March 2016 Kansas City wheat made new contract lows of 4.69 1/4, 4.91, and 5.05 1/2 respectively.

Thus far in the third quarter, September soybeans is the out performer with a loss of 6.77%, September soybean meal -7.96%, September corn -13.74%, September soybean oil -14.24%, September Chicago wheat -17.74%, September Kansas City wheat -19.75%.

Year to date, September soybeans are the out performer with a loss of 5.51%, September soybean meal -9.24%, September soybean oil -9.88%, September corn -12.34%, September Chicago wheat -16.25%, September Kansas City wheat -24.19%.

Cotton: On August 14, December cotton generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, December cotton advanced 4.16 cents, March 2016 +3.58, May 2016+3.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 5,564 of their long positions and added 8,481 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,890 to their long positions and liquidated 11,823 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 1.81:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 2.69:1 and nearly half the ratio two weeks ago of 3.41:1.

During the past week, December, March 2016 and May 2016 cotton made new contract lows of 61.20, 61.19, and 61.50 respectively. As is typical when a market moves to new lows, managed money becomes bearish at the bottom, and then must scramble out of bearish positions when markets have counter trend rallies.

Sugar #11:

For the week, October sugar gained 2 points, March 2016 -5, May -3. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 504 contracts of their long positions and added 5,317 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 15,550 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,050 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.43:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.39:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.40:1.

During the past week, October 2015, March 2016 and May 2016 sugar made new contract lows of 10.37, 11.65, and 11.80 respectively.

Coffee: On August 11, September and December coffee generated short and intermediate term buy signals.

For the week, September coffee advanced 9.70 cents, December +10.30, March 2016 +10.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,352 to their long positions and liquidated 10,406 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 8,283 of their long positions and added 3,249 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.22:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.59:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.74:1.

Cocoa: On August 12, September and December cocoa generated intermediate term sell signals after generating short-term sell signals on July 27.

For the week, September cocoa lost $68.00, December -60.00, March 2016 -55.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 11,435 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,549 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 616 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 16,016 contracts of their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 2.96:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.32:1 and the ratio two weeks ago a 3.62:1.

Live cattle:

For the week, October live cattle lost 1.67 cents, December -1.05, February 2016 -98 points. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 529 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,982 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,066 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,963 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 1.51:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.45:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.75:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, October lean hogs gained 1.20 cents, December +1.48, February 2015 +20 points. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,904 of their long positions and added 2,209 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 202 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,999 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by ratio of 1.51:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.68:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.76:1.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, September WTI crude oil lost $1.37, October -1.25, November -80 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added just 11 contracts to their long positions and also added 15,851 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 53,240 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 44,174 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 1.66:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.86:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.76:1.

The current ratio of 1.66:1 is a new low and takes out the previous print of 1.82:1 made in the COT report of March 24, 2015, which was one week after the April 2015 contract made its contract low of 42.03. In summary, managed money has never been as bearish on crude oil as they are in the current COT report during the major collapse of prices, which began in June 2014.

Heating oil:

For the week, September heating oil gained 1.43 cents, October +1.30, November +1.30. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 708 contracts of their long positions and added 2,492 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,411 to their long positions and also added 3,382 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.92:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.80:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.65:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, September gasoline gained 6.39 cents, October +4.66, November +3.71. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 549 contracts of their long positions and added 444 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 13,594 contracts to their long positions also added 14,850 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.28:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.30:1 and the same as the ratio two weeks ago of 1.28:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, September natural gas advanced 3 ticks, October +1.5 cents, November +1.4. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,827 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,744 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 9,304 of their long positions also liquidated 14,856 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.53:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.55:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.44:1.

Copper:

For the week, September copper gained 1.90 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 882 contracts to their long positions and also added 46 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,526 to their long positions and also added 1,391 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.95:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 2.00:1 (the high ratio since short and intermediate term sell signals were generated), but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.78:1.

During the past week, September copper made a new contract low of $2.2925, the lowest print on the monthly continuation chart since June 2009 ($2.1345).

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium advanced $20.60. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 170 contracts of their long positions and added 93 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 70 contracts to their long positions also added 77 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 1.55:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.57:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.61:1.

Platinum:

For the week, October platinum gained $31.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 789 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 990 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 980 contracts of their long positions and added 706 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.23:1, which is up fractionally from the previous week of 1.22:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.21:1.

Gold:

For the week, December gold gained $18.60. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,934 to their long positions and liquidated 923 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,372 of their long positions and added 1,909 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short gold by a ratio of 1.05:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.11:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.14:1.

Silver: On August 11, September and December silver generated short term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, September silver gained 39.2 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,485 to their long positions and liquidated 8,374 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,795 of their long positions and added 541 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short silver by ratio of 1.006:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 1.28:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.32:1.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the September Canadian dollar gained 29 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 4,040 of their long positions and added 2,551 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 4.45:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.41:1 and a dramatic increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.79:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the September Australian dollar lost 29 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,135 contracts of their long positions and added 891 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 7.01:1, is above the previous week of 6.15:1, but down substantially from the ratio two weeks ago of 9.05:1.

The ratio of 9.05:1 is the highest short ratio recorded for the Australian dollar during 2015.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the September Swiss franc gained 65 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,707 of their long positions and added 3,820 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.88:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 1.20:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.01:1.

British pound: On August 13 the GBP/EUR cross generated a short term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the September British pound gained 1.59 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 5,579 of their long positions and added 1,252 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 2.44:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.77:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.67:1.

Euro: On August 13, the September and December euro contracts generated short term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, the September euro gained 1.48 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 842 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,348 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 2.81:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.83:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.76:1.

Yen:

For the week, the September yen lost 8  pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 3,575 of their long positions and added 21,936 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 5.64:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 4.05:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.96:1.

Dollar index: On August 13 the September and December dollar indices generated short-term sell signals but remain on on intermediate term buy signals.

For the week, the September dollar index lost 1.08 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,069 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,403 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 1.85:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 1.08:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.20:1.

Thus far in the third quarter, the September dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 1.07%, September euro -0.31%, September British pound -0.48%, September yen -1.57%, September Australian dollar -4.15%, September Swiss franc -4.35%, September Canadian dollar -4.50%.

Year to date, the September dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 6.97%, September Swiss franc +1.34%, September British pound -0.36%, September yen -3.87%, September euro -8.39%, September Australian dollar -9.31%, September Canadian dollar -10.80%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the September S&P 500 futures contract gained 15.80 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,749 to their long positions and also added 637 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.86:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.55:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.46:1.

Thus far in the third quarter, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 3.05%, S&P 500 cash index +1.38%, S&P 400 cash index -0.03%, New York Composite cash index -0.21%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index -0.81%, Russell 2000 cash index -3.29%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 6.95%, S&P 400 cash index +3.39%, S&P 500 cash index +1.59%, Russell 2000 cash index +0.66%, New York Composite cash index -0.53%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index -1.94%.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the September 10 year treasury note lost 3 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 30,279 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 23,331 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by a ratio of 1.77:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.94:1 (the high ratio since the generation of short and intermediate term buy signals), but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.54:1.