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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, July 22 through Tuesday, July 28.

Soybeans: On July 28, August and September soybeans generated short-term sell signals, but remain on intermediate term buy signals.

For the week, August soybeans lost 10.50 cents, September -14.00, new crop November -24.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 12,231 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 552 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4002 of their long positions and also liquidated a massive 40,759 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybeans by a ratio of 3.06:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.36:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.81:1.

This week, September soybeans made a weekly low of 9.37 1/2, which took out the low of 9.40 made during the week of June 22. Remarkably, managed money remains net long soybeans according to the July 28 COT report by 70,700 contracts, down from 82,379 contracts in the July 21 COT report. During the span of the July 28 COT report, September soybeans went from a high of 10.10 on July 22 to a low of 9.37 1/2 on July 27. 

The COT report for June 10, 2014 revealed that managed money was long soybeans by a ratio of 2.94:1 and with the current ratio above the ratio of June 10, managed money has never been as bullish as they are in the current report during the past 13 months.

The major difference between the current report and the one tabulated on June 10, 2014 is the price level of soybeans. For example, the trading range encompassed by the 2014 COT report of June 10 (June 4-June 10) was dramatically higher during June 2014 than July 2015 and the range from low to high was $14.52-14.95 3/4. In summary, managed money has never been as bullish in the current report since June 2014, even though soybean prices are more than $4.50 lower.

A large contingent of professional money managers are holding positions that are underwater. Now that September soybeans has generated a short-term sell signal, we expect to see prices move lower. As usual, managed money will provide plenty of fuel. 

Soybean meal:

For the week, August soybean meal lost 20 cents, September – $6.70, new crop December -9.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 136 contracts of their long positions and also added 3,697 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 795 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 12,243 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money as long soybean meal by a ratio of 2.70:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.02:1, but up slightly from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.62:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, August soybean oil lost 50 points, September -46, new crop December -46. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 5,301 of their long positions and added 14,302 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 13,833 to their long positions and liquidated 15,218 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean oil by a ratio of 1.01:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by 1.44:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.76:1.

Corn: On July 27, September and December corn generated short-term sell signals, but remain on an intermediate term buy signals.

For the week, September corn lost 21.50 cents, new crop December -21.50, March 2016 -20.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 21,419 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 4,002 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,126 to their long positions and liquidated 13,135 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 4.96:1, which is down fractionally from the previous week of 4.98:1, but up substantially from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.93:1.

The current ratio of 4.96:1 is the highest since December 23, 2014 when managed money was long corn by a ratio of 4.75:1.The trading range encompassed by the nearby March 2015 contract during the December 23, 2014 reporting period was 4.03 1/2 -4.15 3/4, or above the trading range encompassed by the July 28, 2015 report of 3.70 – 4.071/2.

The participation by managed money in the December 23, 2014 report showed a net long position of 233,725 contracts contracts versus the net long of  230,374 contracts held by managed money in the July 28 report. Managed money is holding approximately the same net long position as they were in late December 2014 and corn prices are lower.

As of Friday’s close, the September contract made a weekly low of 3.65  3/4, which is the lowest print since June 23. It should be noted that in the COT report of June 23, managed money net short 122,968 contracts or a short ratio of 1.58:1. In summary, the entire net long position of managed money of 230,374 contracts was initiated after June 23, which means that almost all of managed money holdings are underwater.

As we pointed out last week, managed money is far more bullish corn than soybeans according to our ratios, which calculate number of longs to shorts (Corn 4.96:1 vs, Soybeans 3.06:1). However, Soybeans are substantially out performing corn: 3rd quarter performance: -6.55% vs. -12.09% and Year To Date: -5.29% vs. -10.66. This contradicts the much ballyhooed “efficient market theory.”

As an example of how long managed money can hold onto untenable positions consider the recent performance of Chicago wheat:

On June 30, September Chicago wheat topped at $6.17 1/2. The COT report of June 30 showed that managed money held a net long position of 14,656 contracts. In the COT report of July 7, the net long position more than doubled to 35,415 contracts, however, during the span of the July 7 COT report, September Chicago wheat went from a high of 6.15 on July 1 to a low of 5.72 1/4 on July 6. In summary, managed money was buying on the way down even though the market had clearly turned.The net long position of managed money peaked on July 7.

From July 8 through July 28, September wheat fell from a high of 5.88 1/4 (July 8) down to a low of 5.01 3/4 on July 28, or a loss of 86.50 cents. Here’s the punchline: managed money is still long by 5,146 contracts according to the July 28 COT report. This is a lesson on the amount of punishment managed money longs are willing endure during massive declines. The surprising part: wheat fundamentals are far more bearish than corn, yet managed remains net long.

With the massive long position held by managed money now underwater, heavy selling pressure will keep rallies at bay and send prices lower than anyone thinks. The refusal of managed money to liquidate positions on rallies will keep corn on the defensive until this class of speculator returns to a net short position. Although we are not in the prediction business, when we look at the current lopsided long position of managed money, we see no reason why corn cannot revisit the continuation longer-term contract low of 3.18 1/4 made by the December 2014 contract the week of September 29, 2014.

The selling pressure exerted by managed money will be compounded by the rising dollar index, a very weak wheat market and exacerbated by the bearish mindset for commodities in general.

Chicago wheat: On July 27, September and December Chicago wheat generated intermediate-term sell signals after generating short term sell signals on July 21.

For the week, September Chicago wheat lost 12.50 cents, new crop December -15.00, March 2016 -16.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 14,532 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,534 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,000 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 9,287 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.07:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.25:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.49:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, September Kansas City wheat lost 15.00 cents, new crop December -15.25, March 2016 -16.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 116 contracts of their long positions and added 6,205 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 275 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 6,547 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.01:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by 1.18:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.24:1.

Thus far in the third quarter, September soybean meal is the out performer with a loss of 1.36%, September soybeans -6.55%, September soybean oil -10.67%, September corn -12.09%, September Chicago wheat -18.92%, September Kansas City wheat -19.34%.

Year to date, September soybean meal is the out performer with a loss of 2.74%, September soybeans -5.29%, September soybean oil -6.23%, September corn -10.66%, September Chicago wheat -17.45%, September Kansas City wheat -23.80%.

Cotton: On July 27, December cotton generated short and intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, December cotton lost 43 points, March 2016 -30, May 2016 -21. The COT report revealed that managed money added 780 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,416 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 143 contracts of their long positions also liquidated 4,106 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 3.41:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.87:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 4.12:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, October sugar lost 10 points, March 2016 -17, May 2016-19. The COT report revealed that managed money added 829 contracts to their long positions and also added 12,695 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,352 to their long positions and liquidated 13,724 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.40:1, which is above the previous week of 1.32:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.003:1.

Coffee:

For the week, September coffee advanced 3.00 cents, December +2.85, March 2016 +2.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 61 contracts of their long positions and added 5,128 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,647 to their long positions also added 1,756 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.74:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.57:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.60:1.

Cocoa: On July 27, September cocoa generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, September cocoa gained $28.00, December +37.00, March 2016 +44.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,363 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,723 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,233 of their long positions also liquidated 8,049 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 3.62:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.17:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.15:1.

Live cattle:

For the week, August live cattle advanced 2.68 cents, October +1.80, December +40 points. The COT report revealed that managed money added 131 contracts to their long positions and also added 11,373 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,362 to their long positions and liquidated 7,821 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 1.75:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 2.51:1 and more than half the ratio two weeks ago of 3.99:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, August lean hogs gained 2.00 cents, October +1.68, December +43 points. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,090 to their long positions and liquidated 4,042 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,999 of their long positions and added 283 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.58:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.37:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.25:1.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, September WTI crude oil lost $1.02, October -1.08, November -1.04. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,580 to their long positions and also added 14,301 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 12,801 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,860 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 1.76:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.91:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.33:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, September heating oil lost 4.89 cents, October -4.59, November -4.42. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,783 to their long positions and also added 1,366 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,387 to their long positions and also added 7,753 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.65:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.71:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.70:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, September gasoline lost 1.04 cents, October -1.75, November -2.22. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,150 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,535 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,289 of their long positions and also liquidated 8,427 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.28:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.32:1 and slightly above the ratio two weeks ago of 1.26:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, September natural gas lost 5.9 cents, October -5.5, November -4.5. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,057 to their long positions and also added 206 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,501 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,549 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.44:1, which is exactly the same as the previous week of 1.44:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.58:1.

Copper:

For the week, September copper lost 1.90 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 344 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 104 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,169 to their long positions and liquidated 2,810 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by ratio of 1.78:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.80:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.65:1.

During the past week, September copper made a new contract low of $2.3375.

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium lost $11.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 299 contracts of their long positions and added 30 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 132 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 77 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 1.61:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.64:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.64:1.

Platinum:

For the week, October platinum gained $4.30. The COT report revealed that managed money added 509 contracts to their long positions and also added 51 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 565 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 592 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long platinum by a ratio of 1.23:1, which is slightly above the previous week’s ratio of 1.21:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.25:1.

Gold:

For the week, December gold gained $9.10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 13 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,064 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,608 of their long positions and also liquidated 7,947 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short gold by a ratio of 1.14:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.13:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.01:1.

Silver:

For the week, September silver gained 25.7 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 89 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,667 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,583 to their long positions and also added 1,970 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short silver by a ratio of 1.32:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.36:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.21:1.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the September Canadian dollar lost 14 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 5,964 of their long positions and added 5,041 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 2.79:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 2.05:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.21:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the September Australian dollar gained 13 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 5,350 of their long positions and also liquidated 208 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 9.05:1, which is a huge jump from the previous week of 4.99:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 4.45:1.

The current ratio of 9.05:1 is the highest recorded during the course of the bear market in the Australian dollar.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the September Swiss franc lost 60 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 83 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,173 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.10:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by 1.34:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.56:1.

British Pound:

For the week, the September British pound gained 1.05 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 354 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,399 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 2.67:1, which is above the previous week of 2.39:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.64:1.

Euro:

For the week, the September euro lost 18 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 791 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,879 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 2.76:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.95:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.97:1.

Yen:

For the week, the September yen lost 18 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 5,479 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 4,885 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 3.96:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 3.38:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.50:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the September dollar index advanced 9 ticks. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 938 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 846 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is above the previous week of 1.07:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.15:1.

Thus far in the third quarter, the September dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 1.76%, September British pound -0.73%, September yen -1.22%,September-euro -1.43%, September Swiss franc -3.29%, September Canadian dollar -4.43%, September Australian dollar -5.32%.

Year to date, the September dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 7.69%, September Swiss franc +2.51%, September British pound -0.61%, September yen -3.54%, September euro -9.42%, September Australian dollar -10.42%, September Canadian dollar -10.73%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the September S&P 500 futures contract advanced 20.80 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 612 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,781 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 2.46:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 2.36:1 and double the ratio two weeks ago of 1.22:1.

S&P 500 E mini:  On July 27, the September S&P 500 E mini generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the September 10 year treasury note gained 23 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 80,016 contracts to their long positions and also added 29,380 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by a ratio of 1.54:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.77:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.90:1.