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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, August 19 through Tuesday, August 25.
Soybeans:
For the week, September soybeans lost 12.00 cents, new crop November -4.00, January 2016 -2.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 11,090 contracts of their long positions and added 2,734 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 10,297 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 22,106 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by a ratio of 1.35:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.63:1 and substantially below the ratio two weeks ago of 2.95:1.
During the past week, September, November 2015 and January 2016 soybean contracts made new contract lows of 8.74, 8.55, and 8.58 1/4 respectively.
Even though soybeans made contract lows during the past week, managed money is still clinging to their long positions, and this will add to pressure on the downside.
Soybean meal:
For the week, September soybean meal lost $5.50, October -2.40, new crop December -1.90. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,295 of their long positions also liquidated 8,486 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,967 to their long positions and also added 7,634 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybean meal by a ratio of 2.78:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.22:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.67:1.
Soybean oil:
For the week, September soybean oil gained 43 points, October +48, new crop December +50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 562 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,782 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,002 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,638 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean oil by a ratio of 1.12:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.16:1 and the same as the ratio two weeks ago of 1.12:1.
During the past week, September, October, December soybean oil contracts made new contract lows of 25.38, 25.47 and 25.70 respectively. These are the lowest prices since October 2006 (23.19).
Corn:
For the week, September corn lost 2.00 cents, new crop December -2.25, March 2016 -2.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 24,021 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 32,764 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 303 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 25,193 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by ratio of 1.50:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.37:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.55:1.
Chicago wheat:
For the week, September Chicago wheat lost 22.50 cents, December -20.25, March 2016 -16.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 5,089 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,317 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,262 of their long positions also liquidated 12,621 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.09:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.06:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.18:1.
During the past week, December 2014 and March 2016 Chicago wheat contracts recorded new contract lows 4.82 3/4, and 4.90 1/2 respectively.
Kansas City wheat:
For the week, September Kansas City wheat lost 13.25 cents, December -9.25, March 2016 -9.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 836 contracts to their long positions and also added 864 contracts to their short positions.Commercial interests liquidated 3,096 of their long positions and also liquidated 5,900 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.17:1, which is the same as the previous week of 1.17:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.20:1.
During the past week, September, December 2014 and March 2016 Kansas City wheat contracts made new contract lows of 4.55 3/4, 4.81 1/2, and 4.96 respectively.
Cotton: On August 26, December cotton generated short and intermediate term sell signals, which reversed the August 14 short-term buy signal and the August 17 intermediate term buy signal.
For the week, December cotton lost 3.89 cents, March 2016 -3.91, May 2016-3.67. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,746 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,219 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,660 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,959 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 5.59:1, which is a huge jump from the previous week of 3.85:1 and more than triple the ratio two weeks ago of 1.81:1.
Sugar #11:
For the week, October sugar gained 53 points, March 2016 +36, May 2016+30. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,877 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,019 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 8,594 of their long positions also liquidated 9,712 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.52:1, which is nearly the same as the previous week of 1.51:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.43:1.
During the past week, October, March 2016 and May 2016 sugar contracts made new contract lows of 10.13, 11.28, and 11.44 respectively.
Coffee: On August 24, September and December New York coffee generated short and intermediate term sell signals.
For the week, December coffee lost 2.40 cents, March 2016 -2.50, May 2016-2.45. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,568 of their long positions and added 14,123 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,284 to their long positions and liquidated 13,152 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.51:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by 1.14:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short coffee by a ratio of 1.22:1.
During the past week, December, March 2016 and May 2016 coffee contracts made new contract lows of 1.2025, 1.2375 and 1.2600 respectively.
Cocoa:
For the week, December cocoa advanced $38.00, March 2016 +30.00, May 2016+26.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,433 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,022 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 404 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,406 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 2.74:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.63:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.96:1.
Live cattle:
For the week, October live cattle gained 12 ticks, December -2, February 2016 -10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 73 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,324 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,211 to their long positions and liquidated 526 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 1.44:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.56:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.51:1.
Lean hogs:
For the week, October lean hogs gained 3.60 cents, December +3.05, February 2016 +2.17. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,350 of their long positions also liquidated 2,742 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 811 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated just 2 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.69:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.59:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.51:1.
WTI crude oil:
For the week, October WTI crude oil advanced $4.77, November +4.79, December +4.95. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,526 to their long positions and liquidated 3,154 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 11,799 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 13,485 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 1.57:1, which is a slight increase from the low ratio of 1.52:1 (this is the lowest ratio recorded during the course of the bear market, which began in June of 2014), but below the ratio two weeks ago of 1.66:1.
During the past week, October, November and December WTI crude oil recorded new contract lows of $37.76, 38.52 and 39.22 respectively.
Heating oil:
For the week, October heating oil gained 11.70 cents, November +11.79, December +11.87. The COT report revealed that managed money added 590 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,936 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 19,941 to their long positions and also added 11,516 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.94:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.91:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.92:1.
During the past week, October, November and December heating oil recorded new contract lows of 1.3906, 1.4120, and 1.4271 respectively.
Gasoline:
For the week, October gasoline advanced 1.27 cents, November +3.77, December +5.38. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,227 to their long positions and liquidated 2,075 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,075 to their long positions and also added 6,267 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.46:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.32:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.28:1.
During the past week, October, November and December gasoline recorded new contract lows of 1.2279, 1.1966, and 1.1280 respectively.
Natural gas:
For the week, October natural gas advanced 1.8 cents, November + 4 ticks, December unchanged. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 11,087 of their long positions and also liquidated 831 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 258 to their long positions and also added 2,431 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.83:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.73:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.53:1.
Copper:
For the week, December copper advanced 4.75 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 107 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 9,389 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,038 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,278 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.53:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.79:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.95:1.
During the past week, December copper recorded a new contract low of $2.2030.
Palladium:
For the week, December palladium lost $14.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,113 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,865 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 68 contracts of their long positions also liquidated 1,516 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 1.60:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.70:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.55:1.
During the past week, December palladium recorded a new contract low of $519.20. Remarkably, managed money remains substantially long palladium despite prices reaching the lowest level since September 2010 ($503.35).
Platinum:
For the week, October platinum lost $5.40. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,480 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,002 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 570 of their long positions and added 536 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.39:1, which is up from the previous week up 1.31:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.23:1.
Gold:
For the week, December gold lost $25.60. The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,381 to their long positions and liquidated 25,316 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,041 of their long positions and added 16,773 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.52:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 1.08:1 and a complete turnaround from two weeks ago when managed money was short gold by a ratio of 1.05:1.
Silver: On August 25, September and December New York silver generated short term sell signals. This reversed the short-term buy signals of August 11. Silver remains on an intermediate-term sell signal.
For the week, December silver lost 79.9 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,310 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,553 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 287 of their long positions and added 1,582 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short silver by a ratio of 1.002:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.008:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.006:1.
Canadian dollar:
For the week, the September Canadian dollar lost 24 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 4,406 to their long positions and also added 8,189 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 5.44:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 7.18:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 4.45:1.
Australian dollar:
For the week, the September Australian dollar lost 1.58 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,416 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,370 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 6.94:1, which is down from the previous week of 7.85:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 7.01:1.
Swiss franc:
For the week, the September Swiss franc lost 1.66 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,724 of their long positions and also liquidated 155 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 3.90:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 2.44:1 and more than double the ratio two weeks ago of 1.81:1.
British Pound: On August 27, the September and December British pound generated short and intermediate term sell signals.
For the week, the September British pound lost 3.06 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 11,606 to their long positions and liquidated 1,362 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 2.68:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 2.18:1 and above the ratio two weeks ago of 2.44:1.
Three weeks ago, leverage funds were long the pound by a ratio of 2.72:1, which means that as of August 25, managed money is long by one of the largest ratios of the past several weeks. This large long position will add additional fuel to the downside move, which we expect after the pound has had a counter trend rally.
Euro:
For the week, the September euro lost 1.73 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 13,405 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,363 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 1.77:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.40:1, and a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.81:1.
The rally in the euro, which began a couple of weeks ago when OIA announced that the September contract generated a short-term buy signal on August 13, has served to reduce the net short position of leverage funds. The new long positions added during this time will add fuel to the downside move, especially once the euro has generated a short-term sell signal, which appears to be imminent.
Yen: On August 24, September and December Yen generated short and intermediate term buy signals.
For the week, the September yen advanced 49 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 5,250 to their long positions and liquidated 19,298 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 3.95:1, which is a dramatic reduction from the previous week of 5.73:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 5.64:1.
Dollar index:
For the week, the September dollar index advanced 1.13 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 7,706 to their long positions and also added 1,212 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 2.39:1, which is a large increase from the previous week of 2.00:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.85:1.
S&P 500 (250 x):
For the week, the September S&P 500 futures contract advanced 18.30 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 6,635 to their long positions and also added 5,576 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 1.005:1, which is a sharp reduction from the previous week of 1.14:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.86:1.
10 Year Treasury Note:
For the week, the September 10 year treasury note lost 28-4 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 58,614 of their long positions and also liquidated 94,200 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by a ratio of 2.01:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.96:1 and a large jump from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.77:1.
The current short ratio of 2.01:1 is the highest recorded since the September note generated a short-term buy signal on July 6. The 10 year note is advancing, but leverage funds are attempting to pick a top in the market by increasing their net short exposure.
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