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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, July 29 through Tuesday, August 4.

Soybeans: On August 3, September soybeans generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on July 28.

For the week, August soybeans advanced 28.25 cents, September +22.25, new crop November +23.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,232 of their long positions and added 3,923 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,247 to their long positions and also added 2,706 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by a ratio of 2.58:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.06:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.36:1.

The change in ratios from the previous COT report to the one tabulated on August 4 is far less radical than in corn. It should be noted, that in Friday’s trading, total open interest declined by 1,744 contracts on unimpressive volume of 182,305 contracts. Although total open interest stats will likely change in the final report, volume will most likely stay the same. It is the highest since July 30 when the September contract gained 7.50 cents on volume of 187,715 contracts and total open interest increased by 4,719. In summary, volume on Friday was less than recorded on July 30, but the advance on Friday (+19.50 Sept contract) was more than twice the gain of 7.50 cents on July 30.

Soybean meal:

For the week, August soybean meal lost $2.00, September +5.60, new crop December +8.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,265 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,290 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 8,489 of their long positions and also liquidated 5,664 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 2.82:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.70:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 3.02:1.

The preliminary stats from Friday show that total open interest increased by a massive 4,807 contracts on volume of 81,763. The COT report confirmed that liquidation during the reporting period took place among managed money traders and commercial interests alike.

Soybean oil:

For the week, August soybean oil gained 5 points, September +3, new crop December +7. The COT report revealed that managed money added 476 contracts to their long positions and also added 11,447 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,521 to their long positions and liquidated 10,491 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean oil by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 1.01:1, and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was long soybean oil by a ratio of 1.44:1.

During the past week, August and September 2015 soybean oil made new contract lows of 29.41 and 29.51 respectively.

Corn:

For the week, September corn gained 1.75 cents, you crop December +2.50, March 2016 +2.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 18,932 contracts of their long positions and added a massive 61,255 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests did the opposite, by adding 18,697 contracts to their long positions and liquidating 32,885 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 2.26:1, which is a collapse from the previous week’s ratio of 4.96:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 4.98:1.

Although the net long position has collapsed substantially in the current report, managed money remains net long by 150,187 contracts. However, the corn market is more balanced with the current ratio of 2.26:1, the lowest since the COT report of July 7 when managed money was long corn by 2.23:1.

The dramatic reduction in this week’s ratio was due to the substantial addition of new short positions, not primarily from the liquidation of long positions. This explains the continual build of total open interest during the past week. In summary, managed money was on the sell side and commercials the buy side during the COT tabulation period.

Since the tabulation of the COT report on August 4, total open interest increased on August 5 (+9,813), August 6 (+4,282) and preliminary stats show that total open interest increased by 7,034 contracts on volume of 355,537. Keep in mind the preliminary open interest stats can change radically in the final report. However, if  total open interest also increased on Friday, it means managed money has likely increased their net short position going into the August 12 USDA report.

The set up is as follows: Managed managed money longs are holding large numbers of losing positions and new managed money shorts have initiated their positions at the bottom end of the trading range, approximately 20 cents from the contract low for the September contract. As a consequence, there could be some major fireworks resulting from the August 12 report.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, September Chicago wheat gained 11.25 cents, new crop December +11.00, March 2016 +12.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4016 contracts of their long positions and added 15,850 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 10,947 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,457 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.21:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by a ratio of 1.07:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.25:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, September Kansas City wheat gained 0.75 cents, new crop December + 1.75, March 2016 +1.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,417 contracts to their long positions and also added 7,150 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,889 to their long positions and liquidated 3,613 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.16:1, which is a substantial increase from the previous week of 1.01:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was long Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.18:1.

Thus far in the third quarter, September soybean meal is the out performer with a loss of 1.92%, September soybeans -6.34%, September soybean oil -10.52%, September corn -11.67%, September Chicago wheat -17.09%, September Kansas City wheat -19.21%.

Year to date, September soybean meal is the out performer with a loss of 3.29%, September soybeans -4.18%, September soybean oil -6.07%, September corn -10.24%, September Chicago wheat -15.59%, September Kansas City wheat -23.68%.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton lost 2.42 cents, March 2016 -2.32, May 2016-2.06. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 238 contracts of their long positions and added 4,866 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 856 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,513 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 2.69:1, which is a substantial decline from the previous week of 3.41:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.87:1.

During the past week, the December contract made a low of 61.62, which is fractionally above the contract low of 61.28. We expect a new contract low shortly.

Sugar #11:

For the week, October sugar lost 48 points, March 2016 -49, May 2016-47. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 95 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 938 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 8,424 to their long positions and liquidated 5,222 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.39:1, which is about the same as the previous week of 1.40:1, but up slightly from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.32:1.

During the past week, October, March 2016 and May 2016 sugar made new contract lows of 10.63, 11.79, and 11.90 respectively.

Coffee:

For the week, September coffee gained 2.55, December + 2.35, March 2016 +2.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 927 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,946 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,810 of their long positions and added 2,292 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.59:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.74:1, but up slightly from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.57:1.

Cocoa:

For the week, September cocoa lost $102.00, December -100.00, March 2016 -103.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,212 of their long positions and added 475 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,923 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,314 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 3.32:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.62:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 3.17:1.

Live cattle:

For the week, August live cattle gained 3.87 cents, October +2.60, December +2.52. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 5,984 of their long positions and added 3,492 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,849 to their long positions and liquidated 4,170 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 1.45:1 on the which is down from the previous week of 1.75:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.51:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, August lean hogs lost 2.35 cents, October -1.58, December -1.48. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,681 to their long positions and liquidated 1,083 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 360 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,038 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.68:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.58:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.37:1.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, September WTI crude oil lost $3.25, October -3.17, November -3.10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,118 to their long positions and liquidated 4,388 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 14,021 to their long positions and also added 11,339 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 1.86:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.76:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.91:1.

During the past week, September, October and November 2015 WTI crude oil made new contract lows of 43.70, 44.20, and 44.94 respectively.

Heating oil:

For the week, September heating oil lost 4.53 cents, October -4.95, November -5.41. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,275 to their long positions and also added 10,005 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,519 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,339 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.80:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.65:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.71:1.

During the past week, September, October and November 2015 heating oil made new contract lows of $1.5212, 1.5384, and 1.5577 respectively. 

Gasoline:

For the week, September gasoline lost 14.90 cents, October -11.29, November -10.13. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,617 to their long positions and also added 1,233 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 193 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 270 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.30:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.28:1, but down slightly from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.32:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, September natural gas gained 8.2 cents, October +7.3, November +5.7. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,633 of their long positions and added 14,165 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,183 to their long positions and liquidated 6,032 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.55:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.44:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.44:1.

Copper:

For the week, September copper lost 3.10 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 413 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,214 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,811 to their long positions and also added 823 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 2.00:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.78:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of a 1.80:1.

The short ratio of 2.00:1 is the highest recorded since copper generated a short term sell signal on May 26, 2015 and an intermediate term sell signal on June 12, 2015.

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium lost $13.95. The COT report revealed that managed money added 307 contracts to their long positions and also added 496 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 49 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated to 196 of their short positions. Remarkably, managed money remains long palladium by a ratio of 1.57:1, which is down slightly from the previous week up 1.61:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.64:1.

During the past week, September palladium made a new contract low of $586.55, which is the lowest print since October 2012 (586.95). The fact that managed money remains long palladium is a testament to their stubborn refusal to liquidate long positions in the face of a major bear market.

Platinum:

For the week, October platinum lost $22.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 518 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 212 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 29 contracts of their long positions and added 247 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long platinum by a ratio of 1.22:1, which is fractionally below the previous week of 1.21:1, and fractionally above the ratio made two weeks ago of 1.21:1.

During the past week, October platinum made a new contract low of $945.40, which broke below the February 2009 low of 956.70. The January 2009 low is $914.00. Remarkably, managed money remains net long platinum.

Gold:

For the week, December 2015 gold lost $1.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,711 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,057 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,284 of their long positions and added 1,655 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short gold by a ratio of 1.11:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.14:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.13:1.

Year to date, August gold has lost 7.87% while October platinum lost 17.51%, yet managed money is net long the under performer and net short the out performer.

Silver:

For the week, September silver gained 7.6 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,146 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,049 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 854 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 389 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short silver by a ratio of 1.28:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.32:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.36:1.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the September Canadian dollar lost 22 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 3,373 of their long positions and added 2,710 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 3.41:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.79:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.05:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the September Australian dollar advanced 1.19 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,836 to their long positions and also added 4,724 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 6.15:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 9.05:1, but up substantially in the ratio two weeks ago of 4.99:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the September Swiss franc lost 1.64 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,581 to their long positions and also added 2,760 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is up sharply from the previous week of 1.01:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when leverage funds were long the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.34:1.

British Pound:

For the week, the September British pound lost 1.20 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,305 of their long positions also liquidated 1,772 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 2.77:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 2.67:1, but up substantially from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.39:1.

Euro:

For the week, the September euro gained 5 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,612 to their long positions and also added 10,195 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 2.83:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.76:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.95:1.

Yen:

For the week, the September yen lost 9 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,017 to their long positions and also added 14,343 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 4.05:1, which is above the previous week of 3.96:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 3.38:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the September dollar index gained 18 ticks. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,115 contracts of their long positions and added 553 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 1.08:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.20:1, but up fractionally from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.07:1.

Thus far in the third quarter, the September dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 2.21%, September British pound -1.49%, September yen -1.52%, September euro -1.69%, September Australian dollar -3.77%, September Canadian dollar -4.81%, September Swiss franc -4.96%.

Year to date, the September dollar index is the out performer with the gain of 8.18%, September Swiss franc +1.08%, September British pound -1.38%, September yen -3.82%, September Australian dollar -8.95%, September euro -9.65%, September Canadian dollar -11.10%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the September S&P 500 futures contract lost 24.80 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 227 contracts to their long positions and also added 920 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 2.55:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.46:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.36:1.

10 Year Treasury Note: On August 3, the September 10 year treasury note generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on July 6

For the week, the September 10 year treasury note gained 4 ticks. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 37,539 contracts of their long positions and added a massive 122,390 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by a ratio of 1.94:1, which is a massive increase from the previous week of 1.54:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.77:1.

The current ratio of 1.94:1 is the highest recorded since the 10 year note generated a short-term buy signal on July 6 and an intermediate term buy signal on August 3. The very large short position should continue to fuel the upside move in the 10 year note, which means that lower interest rates are ahead.