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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday February 17 through Tuesday February 23.

Soybeans:

For the week, March soybeans lost 23.25 cents, May -17.25, July -15.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,062 to their long positions and liquidated 15,568 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 22,548 of their long positions and also liquidated 8,699 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybeans by a ratio of 1.15:1, down from the previous week of 1.43:1 and is a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.85:1.

The current short ratio of 1.15:1 is the lowest in several weeks even as soybeans are trading not far from contract lows.

Soybean meal:

For the week, March soybean meal lost $7.30, May -5.40, July -5.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,057 of their long positions and also liquidated 488 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 307 to their long positions and liquidated 7,367 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean meal by a ratio of 2.38:1, up from the previous week of 2.14:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.27:1.

During the past week, March, May and July soybean meal recorded new contract lows of $255.70, 258.90 and 261.70 respectively.

Soybean oil:

For the week, March soybean oil lost 36 points, May -40, July -39. The COT report revealed that managed money added 910 to their long positions and also added 7,869 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 18 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 12,807 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 2.74:1, down substantially from the previous week of 3.69:1 and only slightly lower than the ratio two weeks ago of 2.87:1.

Corn:

For the week, March corn lost 11.00 cents, May -9.75, July -9.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,368 of their long positions and also liquidated 931 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,537 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,313 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short corn by a ratio of 1.87:1, which is exactly the same as the previous week of 1.87:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.63:1.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, March Chicago wheat lost 18.50 cents, May -14.50, July -14.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,637 of their long positions and added 9,367 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,300 to their long positions and liquidated 6,616 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a new record ratio of 2.71:1, up from the previous week of 2.40:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.35:1.

The current short ratio of 2.71:1 is the highest recorded during 2016. During the past week, March, May and July 2016 Chicago wheat recorded new contract lows of 4.38, 4.46 1/2 and 4.55 respectively.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, March Kansas City wheat lost 14.50 cents, May -12.00, July -12.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,848 to their long positions and also added 5,260 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 203 to their long positions and also added 1,462 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.71:1, up from the previous week of 1.65:1 and slightly below the ratio two weeks ago of 1.75:1.

During the past week, May and July 2016 Kansas City wheat recorded new contract lows of 4.48 1/2 and 4.59 respectively.

Cotton:

For the week, March cotton lost 2.09 cents, May -2.01, July -2.35. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 12 contracts of their long positions and added 950 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,692 of their long positions and also liquidated 5,199 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short cotton by a ratio of 1.10:1, up from the previous week of 1.08:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.05:1.

During the past week, March, May and July 2016 cotton recorded new contract lows of 57.16, 57.26, and 57.18 respectively.

Sugar: On February 24, May New York sugar generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, March sugar gained 1.39 cents, May+1.33, July +1.53. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,034 to their long positions and also added 14,434 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 18,437 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 20,429 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.09:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by a ratio of 1.02:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was long sugar by a ratio of 1.008:1.

Just as managed money assumed a net short position for the first time in many months, the market rallied sharply and proceeded to blow out huge numbers of short-sellers as OIA announced a short-term buy signal in sugar on February 24.

Coffee:

For the week, March coffee lost 2.75 cents, May -1.35, July -1.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,612 to their long positions and liquidated 782 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,653 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,761 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.41:1, down from the previous week of 1.59:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.56:1.

Cocoa: On February 25, May New York cocoa generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, March cocoa advanced $46.00, May +31.00, July +30.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 584 to their long positions and liquidated 873 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,120 to their long positions and also added 9,192 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 1.80:1, up from the previous week of 1.72:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.61:1.

Live cattle: On February 23, April live cattle generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, April live cattle gained 3.05 cents, June +2.80, August + 2.27. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 225 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,653 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,881 of their long positions and added 1,991 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio 1.45:1, up from the previous week of 1.29:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 136:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, April lean hogs advanced 1.95 cents, June +1.70, August +1.17. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 101 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,079 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,026 to their long positions and also added 7,181 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio 3.84:1 up from the previous week of 3.37:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 3.10:1.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, April WTI crude oil advanced $1.03, May+ 1.19, June+ 1.24. The COT report revealed that managed money added 8,603 to their long positions and liquidated 35,788 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,875 of their long positions and added 3,461 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 1.59:1, up from the previous week of 1.28:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.37:1.

Brent crude oil: On February 26, May Brent crude oil generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

Heating oil: April heating oil generated a short term buy signal on February 8. Remains on intermediate term sell. 

For the week, March heating oil advanced 2.57 cents, April+ 2.59, May + 2.58. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 514 of their long positions and added 2,854 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,818 to their long positions and also added 1,267 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.86:1, up from 1.71:1 the previous week and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.76:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, March gasoline advanced 5.72 cents, April + 8.82, May+8.67. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,276 of their long positions and added 1,358 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,251 to their long positions and also added 8,256 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.62:1, down from the previous week of 1.76:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.35:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, April natural gas lost 7.6 cents, May -7.2, June -6.7. The COT report revealed that managed money added 523 to their long positions and also added 14,404 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,117 to their long positions and liquidated 1,901 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio 1.91:1, up from the previous week of 1.84:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.76:1.

During the past week, April, May and June natural gas recorded new contract lows of 1.730, 1.807, and 1.880 respectively.

Copper:

For the week, May copper gained 4.45 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,436 of their long positions and also liquidated 8,047 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,647 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,931 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio 1.07:1, down from the previous week of 1.23:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.19:1.

Palladium:

For the week, June palladium lost $17.30. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,368 of their long positions and added 461 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 105 to their long positions and liquidated 860 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio 1.54:1, down from the previous week of 1.94:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.91:1.

Platinum:

For the week, April platinum lost $29.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 640 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,425 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,047 of their long positions and added 1,178 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 3.17:1, up from the previous week of 2.78:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of $2.11:1.

Gold:

For the week, April gold lost $10.40. The COT report revealed that managed money added 15,154 to their long positions and liquidated 12,930 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,756 of their long positions and added 11,417 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 4.38:1, up sharply from the previous week of 2.79:1 and more than double the ratio two weeks ago of 2.00:1.

This is the second week in a row when gold prices declined. The previous week April gold lost $8.60.

Silver:

For the week, May silver lost 69.0 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,958 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,342 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,308 to their long positions and also added 3,657 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a stratospheric ratio of 5.38:1, up sharply from the previous week of 4.67:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.08:1.

This is the second week in a row that silver showed losses and in the previous week lost 41.7 cents. With managed money holding a huge net long position, there is the likelihood of increased selling pressure, and the May contract is getting close to generating a short-term sell signal. 

From a seasonal standpoint, January and February are strong months for silver and the average gain in January during the past 20 years has been 3.2% and for February 4.1%. The average gain for March is +0.8%.

Canadian dollar: On February 26, the March and June Canadian dollar generated intermediate term buy signals after generating short term buy signals on February 1.

For the week, the March Canadian dollar advanced 1.31 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,419 to their long positions and liquidated 1,288 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds remain short the Canadian dollar by a stratospheric 6.06:1, which is down from the previous week of 7.44:1 and the record high short ratio of 7.99:1 two weeks ago.

The extraordinary rally from the contract low of 68.09 made on January 20 through Friday’s high of 74.05 represents a contract move in U.S. dollars of nearly $6,000. This is devastating to anyone short the market, especially if short from substantially lower levels. As we have pointed out in previous reports if crude oil continues to rally, we expect the loonie to follow, especially with the high net short speculative position. At some point the Canadian dollar will be a terrific bearish opportunity, but for now stand aside.

From the February 14 weekend Wrap On the Canadian Dollar:

“The sizable move from the contract low of 68.09 made on January 20 through the most recent high of 73.31 made on February 4 has not shaken the shorts out of the Canadian dollar market. As a result, we continue to recommend a stand aside posture. The Canadian dollar has been acting in a very firm manner and although we think the loonie is ultimately headed lower, we need to see a substantial number of short-sellers blown out before it is safe to approach the market from the bearish side.”

Australian dollar: On February 23, the March and June Australian dollar generated intermediate term buy signals after generating short term buy signals on February 4.

For the week, the March Australian dollar lost 18 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 4,958 to their long positions and liquidated 2,026 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 1.27:1, down substantially from the previous week of 1.67:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.79:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the March Swiss franc lost 88 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 13 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,982 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 2.15:1, down from the previous week of 2.34:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.57:1.

British pound:

For the week, the March British pound lost 4.98 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 783 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,700 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the British pound by a ratio 2.28:1, which is exactly the same ratio as the previous week of 2.28:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.63:1.

During the past week, the March British pound recorded a new contract low of 1.3854, which is the lowest print since 1.3492 made during March 2009.

Euro:

For the week, the March euro lost 2.10 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,218 of their long positions and also liquidated 7,425 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 1.65:1, down from the previous week of 1.71:1 and a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.10:1.

Just as leverage funds reduced their net short position to the lowest level in many months, the euro has reversed course and made new lows for the move this week. The March contract will likely generate a short-term sell signal early this week.

Yen:

For the week, the March yen lost 104 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 4,369 to their long positions and also added 3,757 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the yen by a ratio of 1.28:1, which is exactly the same ratio as the previous week of 1.28:1, and up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.10:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the March dollar index advanced 1.57 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 351 of their long positions and also liquidated 590 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 1.99:1, up from the previous week of 1.92:1 but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.34:1.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the March S&P 500 futures contract gained 28.20 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 734 to their long positions and liquidated 971 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.42:1, up from the previous week of 1.18:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.49:1.

NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000: On February 22, the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 cash indices generated short-term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the June 10 year treasury note lost 4-4 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 68,126 to their long positions and liquidated 86,603 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by ratio 1.38:1, down sharply from the previous week of 1.77:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.69:1.