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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, July 1 through Tuesday, July 7.

Soybeans:

For the week, August soybeans lost 6.25 cents, September -7.50, new crop November -8.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,529 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,815 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,746 of their long positions and added 13,913 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by a ratio of 2.25:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 2.03:1 and more than double the ratio two weeks ago of 1.06:1.

Note the addition of new long positions by managed money was less than the number liquidated. In summary, the pace of net long positions of managed money was slowing. The COT report was tabulated on July 7 and from July 8 through July 10 August soybeans have advanced 40.00 cents, which means it is likely more short sellers have been blown out and new longs added.

The highest ratio of managed money longs going back to July 2014 occurred in the COT report of December 9, 2014 when managed money was long soybeans by a ratio of 2.07:1.We were unable to find a ratio higher than the one recorded in the current COT report of 2.25:1. This means that managed money has never been as bullish as they are in the current report during the past year.

During the past year, the August 2015 contract, made its high 52 high of 11.43 3/4 on July 17, 2014 and the low of 9.09 1/4 on June 1, 2015. The August contract currently is up 13.50% from the June 1, 2015 low and down 9.77% from the July 17, 2014 high. The performance of soybeans during the current quarter and year to date is abysmal, and confirms the weakness of the market. The performance stats are listed below Kansas City wheat.

It is likely the COT report of next week will show an increase in the net long position of managed money. And if this is the case, a lopsided net long position will be held by managed money. For prices to continue to advance more new longs must be willing to make commitments at ever higher prices because the number of short sellers covering positions are diminishing. We do not think this is in the cards unless a major weather scare occurs. As we pointed out before, soybeans tend to top in the June-July time frame. We think the party is about to end.

Soybean meal:

For the week, August soybean meal advanced $5.50, September +5.40, new crop December + 3.70. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,748 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,439 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,011 of their long positions and added 8,397 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 2.16:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.87:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.57:1.

Like soybeans, managed money liquidated more positions than they added in this week’s report. This is not exactly a sign of confidence. Additionally, though soybean meal is the out performer, the ratio is slightly below that of soybeans. This indicates a reticence on the part of managed money to substantially increase long positions in the top performing commodity in the soybean complex.

Soybean oil: On July 8, August soybean oil generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on June 18.

For the week, August soybean oil lost 1.06 cents, September -1.06, new crop December -1.07. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,901 contracts of their long positions and added 5,965 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,161 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 16,413 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 1.43:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.77:1 and about the same as the ratio two weeks ago of 1.44:1.

Managed money is becoming less bullish on soybean oil. Additionally, it remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal, which means there is one less leg supporting the soybean complex. 

Corn:

For the week, September corn advanced 6.25 cents, new crop December +7.75, March 2016 + 8.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 13,316 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 95,246 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 15,385 contracts of their long positions and added 63,239 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 2.23:1, which is almost double the previous week’s ratio of 1.19:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was short corn by a ratio of 1.58:1.

Again, note that the bulk of the increase in this week’s ratio was the result of managed money liquidating a massive short position, rather than the addition of long positions. In last week’s COT report, managed money added 44,411 contracts to their long positions and liquidated a massive 118,887 of their short positions.

In summary, the liquidation of short positions has been the prime impetus in the shift from net short to net long. Also, note that the number of new longs added in the current report is substantially less than the previous week’s report, indicating a slowdown in the number of new longs willing to pay ever higher prices.

Remember that the corn market currently is discounting any possible negatives to the crop that are known at this juncture.  

The current ratio of 2.23:1 is the highest since the COT report of January 27, 2015 when managed money was long corn by a ratio of 2.46:1.The trading range of the September contract during the January 27 COT reporting period was 4.02-4.10 1/2. On the continuation chart, which reflects the March 2015 contract the trading range was 3.80-3.92 1/4. In short, corn prices are currently trading at a higher level than in the period reflected in the January 27 COT report, yet the ratio is slightly below that of January 27. This week’s report was tabulated on July 7 and from July 8 through July 10 September corn has advanced 11.50 cents, which means it is likely more shorts have been blown out and new longs added by managed money. Seasonally, corn tends to top in July.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, September Chicago wheat lost 14.50 cents, new crop of December -15.75, March 2016 -17.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 10,409 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 10,350 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,897 of their long positions and added 11,427 contracts to their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is long Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.60:1, which is up from the previous week up 1.21:1, and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.90:1.

In the case of Chicago wheat, managed money added as many new longs as they liquidated short positions. It is should be noted that the addition of 10,409 contracts to their long positions by managed money in Chicago wheat was a reduction from the June 30 report when managed money added 27,447 contracts and liquidated 39,693.

Also, keep in mind that the addition of new long positions in the current report exceeded the addition of new long positions for soybeans, and soybean meal and was only beaten by corn (13,316). This may be substantiation that Johnny-come-lately’s were entering Chicago wheat at the high end of the range, which increases the likelihood that Chicago wheat topped on June 30 (6.17 1/2).

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, September Kansas City wheat lost 18.50 cents, new crop December -19.00, March 2016 -17.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,117 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,265 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,107 contracts to their long positions and also added 10,194 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.21:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.06:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.07:1.

Thus far in the third quarter, September corn is the out performer with a gain the 3.02%, August soybean meal +1.81%, August soybeans -1.67%, August soybean oil -3.72%, September Kansas City wheat -6.23%, September Chicago wheat -6.46%.

Year to date, August soybean meal is the out performer with a gain a 7.87%, September corn +4.70%, August soybeans -0.34%, August soybeans oil -0.74%, September Chicago wheat -4.75%, September Kansas City wheat -11.42%.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton lost 1.87 cents, March 2016 -1.87, May 2016 -1.66. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 276 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,382 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,802 of their long positions and added 4,395 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 4.55:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 3.37:1 and more than double the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.93:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, October sugar gained 11 points, March 2016 +2, May 2016 -5. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,403 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 29,508 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 25,430 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 15,058 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.27:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.52:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.64:1.

Coffee:

For the week, September coffee lost 1.15 cents, December -1.45, March 2016 -1.55. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,789 of their long positions and added 8,503 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,744 to their long positions and liquidated 4,879 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.78:1, which is a substantial jump from the previous week of 1.39:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.42:1.

The current short ratio of 1.78:1 is the highest recorded during the course of the coffee bear market, which began in 2014.

Cocoa:

For the week, September cocoa gained $15.00, December +15.00, March 2016 +19.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,836 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,214 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 520 of their long positions and also liquidated just 2 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 3.38:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 3.14:1, and a large jump from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.76:1.

Live cattle:

For the week, August live cattle lost 3.75 cents, October -3.70, December -2.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,726 of their long positions and also liquidated 76 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 327 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,648 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 5.90:1, which is down from the previous week of 6.11:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 6.06:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, August lean hogs lost 2.72 cents, October -3.82, December -4.70. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,270 contracts of their long positions and added 528 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,361 to their long positions and liquidated 355 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.13:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.19:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.34:1.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, August WTI crude oil lost $4.19, September -4.08, October -4.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,328 of their long positions and added 32,694 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,872 of their long positions also liquidated 24,460 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 2.84:1, which is a large drop from the previous week of 4.36:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 4.85:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, August heating oil lost 10.00 cents, September -10.05, October -9.88. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,499 of their long positions and added 6,857 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 11,330 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 732 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.64:1, which is a jump from the previous week of 1.16:1 and substantially above the ratio two weeks ago of 1.04:1.

Gasoline: On July 7, August gasoline generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on intermediate-term buy signal.

For the week, August gasoline lost 1.78 cents, September -5.31, October -7.35. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,065 of their long positions and added 3,266 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,387 of their long positions and also liquidated 16,440 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.15:1, which is below the previous week’s ratio of 1.36:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.45:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, August natural gas lost 5.2 cents, September -5.7, October -5.6. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,286 of their long positions and added 11,380 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 595 contracts of their long positions and added 1,797 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.71:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.63:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.66:1.

Copper:

For the week, September copper lost 9.35 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,419 of their long positions and added 2,315 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,171 to their long positions and liquidated 3,037 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.73:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.60:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.54:1.

During the past week, the September copper contract made a new contract low of $2.3810.

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium lost $43.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,422 of their long positions also liquidated 70 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 23 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 108 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 1.77:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.88:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.11:1.

During the past week, the September palladium contract made a new contract low of $629.25.

Platinum:

For the week, October platinum lost $51.70. The COT report revealed that managed money added 457 contracts to their long positions and also added 64 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 354 of their long positions and also liquidated 345 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.35:1, which is about the same as the previous week of 1.34:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.23:1.

During the past week, the October platinum made a new contract low of $1010.90.

Gold:

For the week, August gold lost $5.60. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,706 of their long positions and added 9,818 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,930 to their long positions and liquidated 9,732 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.02:1 which is down from the previous week of 1.16:1 and is a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.47:1.

Silver:

For the week, September silver lost 8.1 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 158 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,085 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 554 of their long positions also liquidated 4,729 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short silver by a ratio of 1.28:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.24:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.16:1.

During the past week, September silver made a new contract low of $14.620.

The CFTC has not corrected the stats for the Swiss franc, British pound and Dollar index. As a consequence, we will only provide its performance for the week and not additions and subtractions of positions from the previous week’s report.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the September Canadian dollar lost 81 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 10,438 contracts to their long positions and also added 18,250 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 2.15:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.26:1 and a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 3.06:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the September Australian dollar lost 1.82 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 391 contracts of their long positions and added 8,265 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 3.27:1, which is up substantially from the ratio of the previous week of 2.50:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.41:1.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the September Swiss franc gained 20 pips.

British Pound: On July 8, the September British pound generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on the intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the September British pound lost 95 pips.

Euro: On July 6, the September euro generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the September euro gained 42 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,416 of their long positions and added 8,174 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 2.74:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 2.16:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.97:1.

Yen: On July 6, the September yen generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the September yen gained 15 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,511 to their long positions and liquidated 15,047 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 4.70:1, which is down from the previous week of 5.70:1 and a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 7.00:1.

Dollar index: On July 7, the September dollar index generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate-term sell signal.

For the week, the September dollar index lost 12 ticks.

Thus far in the third quarter, the September dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 0.36%, September euro +0.05%, September yen -0.27%, September Swiss franc -0.42%, September British Pound -1.45%, September Canadian dollar -1.48%, September Australian dollar -3.57%.

Year to date, the September dollar index is the out performer with the gain of 6.21%, September Swiss franc +5.55%, September British pound -1.33%, September yen -2.60%, September Canadian dollar -7.98%, September euro -8.05%, September Australian dollar -8.75%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the September S&P 500 futures contract closed essentially unchanged on the week (+0.20 ticks). The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,132 of their long positions and also liquidated 5,197 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.49:1, which is a dramatic reduction from the previous week of 2.91:1, but above the ratio two weeks ago of 1.13:1.

10 Year Treasury Note: On July 6, the September 10 year treasury note generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the September 10 year treasury note lost 4.6 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 22,839 contracts of their long positions and added 7,831 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by ratio of 1.80:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.71:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.51:1.