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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, June 3 through Tuesday, June 9.

From time to time, we have written about the Greenhaven Continuous Commodity index, which is composed of 17 commodities and is equally weighted. This means that the movement of any one commodity or group of commodities does not have a disproportionate impact on the movement of the index. For example the weight assigned to each of the 17 components in the index is 5.88%. The movement of WTI crude oil is equal to cotton, or cocoa even though crude oil is much more important to the economy. The index has a great deal of utility because it is publicly traded: ticker symbol GCC.

Components in the index are as follows: soybeans, soybean oil, corn, Chicago wheat, cotton, sugar #11, cocoa, coffee, live cattle, lean hogs, WTI crude oil, heating oil, natural gas, gold, silver, platinum, copper.

The index made its 52-week high on June 25, 2014 at $28.31 and bottomed on March 18, 2015 at 20.84. As of Friday’s close (21.45), the index is 24.23% below its 52-week high, and 2.93% above the 52-week low.

In summary, the commodity price collapse has occurred across all major categories, and the result is major double digit losses in less than one year. It is important to keep this in mind when considering long positions for any commodity. The major trend is down across the board for all commodities and this is symptomatic of the deflationary cycle economists talk about.The index has been trending down ever since it topped at $36.51 in April 2011. The 50 week moving average of 23.64 is below the 200 week moving average of 27.45, which indicates a strong longer term bearish set-up.

To further illustrate how prices have cratered during the past year, consider the following: During June 2014, July 2014 corn made a high of 4.70 1/2 and a low of 4.16 and it closed at 4.24 1/4 on June 30, 2014. July 2014 Chicago wheat made a high of 6.26 3/4 and a low of 5.55 3/4 and closed at 5.64 3/4 on June 30, 2014. July 2014 soybeans made a high of 15.11 3/4 and a low of 13.80 and closed at 14.00 1/2 on June 30, 2014.

Soybeans:

For the week, July soybeans advanced 2.25 cents, August -3.00, new crop November -10.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,391 of their long positions and also liquidated 7,788 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,858 of their long positions and added 10,160 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybeans by a ratio of 2.10:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 2.13:1 and below the record high short ratio of managed money of 2.34:1 recorded two weeks ago.

Soybean meal:

For the week, July soybean meal advanced $12.50, August +9.70, new crop December +2.40. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,878 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,601 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,900 of their long positions and added 11,698 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is now long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.01:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by a ratio of 1.14:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short soybean meal by a ratio of 1.16:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, July soybean oil lost 1.64 cents, August -1.63, new crop December -1.52. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,568 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,338 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated just 40 contracts of their long positions and added 11,242 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 3.63:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.15: 1 and more than double the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.60:1.

The current ratio of 3.63:1 is the highest recorded during 2015.

Corn:

For the week, July corn lost 7.50 cents, September -8.75, new crop December -8.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,761 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 42,978 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 11,284 contracts of their long positions and added 16,018 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short corn by a ratio of 1.50:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.71:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.72:1.

Three weeks ago managed money was short corn by a record high short ratio of 1.73:1.

Chicago wheat: On June 9, July Chicago wheat generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on May 15.

For the week, July Chicago wheat lost 13.25 cents, September -11.00, new crop December -8.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 9,824 to their long positions and liquidated 30,890 contracts of their short positions.Commercial interests liquidated 7,222 of their long positions and added 23,343 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.45:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.16:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.40:1.

The May 5 COT report had the highest ratio of managed money shorts when the ratio hit a record of 3.28:1. During the past several weeks, managed money has substantially trimmed their short positions, which will reduce a source of potential buying power. This makes Chicago wheat less likely to have powerful rallies unless they are powered by new longs.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, July Kansas City wheat lost 9.25 cents, September -10.25, new crop December -10.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 570 contracts of their long positions and added 157 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,102 to their long positions and also added 4,377 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.03:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.01:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 1.14:1.

Year to date, July soybean oil is the out performer with a gain of 1.81%, July soybean meal -6.45%, July soybeans -9.35%, July corn -14.42%, July Chicago wheat -15.69%, Kansas City wheat -17.26%.

Thus far in the second quarter, July soybean oil is the out performer with a gain of 8.23%, July Chicago wheat -1.99%, July soybean meal -2.40%, July soybeans -3.86%, July Kansas City wheat -6.70%, July corn -8.13%.

Cotton:

For the week, July cotton advanced 6 points, new crop December +11, March 2016 +15. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,695 to their long positions and liquidated 6,534 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,766 of their long positions and added 8,407 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 2.17:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 1.61:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.69:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, July sugar lost 33 points, October -35, March 2016 -25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,023 contracts to their long positions and also added 285 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 19,784 of their long positions and also liquidated 11,849 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.39:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.42:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.43:1.

During the past week, July, October, and March 2016 sugar made new contract lows of 11.61, 12.01, and 13.39 respectively.

Coffee:

For the week, July coffee lost 3.05 cents, September -3.00, December -2.90. The COT report revealed that managed money added just 1 contract to their long position and liquidated 11,590 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,503 of their long positions and added 4,054 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.19:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.56:1 and substantially below the record high short ratio of 1.61:1 reported two weeks ago.

Cocoa:

For the week, July cocoa advanced $24.00, September +32.00, December +35. 00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated just 2 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,855 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,636 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,726 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 3.02: 1, which is up from the previous week of 2.67:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.68:1.

Year to date, July cocoa is the out performer with a gain of 8.69%, July cotton +3.34%, July sugar -23.15%, July coffee -23.18%.

Thus far in the second quarter, July cocoa is the out performer with a gain of 16.34%, July cotton +0.96%, July sugar -2.82%, July coffee -2.98%.

Live cattle:

For the week, August live cattle advanced 23 points, October +83, December +40. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,449 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,548 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 351 of their long positions and added 2,613 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 7.03:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 8.24:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 8.48:1.

Three weeks ago, managed money was long live cattle by 9.82:1, which has been the highest ratio for the past couple of months. Despite firm prices, managed money is losing its enthusiasm for live cattle. Additionally, the longer-term moving averages are flattening out with the 50 day standing at 1.49597 and the 200 day average of 1.49410.

This is not a bullish set up and the year to date and second quarter performance stats (see below) confirm the stagnant moving averages. Despite bullish fundamentals talked up by analysts, the fact is the cattle market does not have this momentum to move substantially higher. We have advised a stand aside posture, but for those of you who want to be involved in the market, a more conservative approach is to write out of the money calls in the August contract.

Lean hogs: On June 10 August lean hogs generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short term sell signal on June 4.

For the week, August lean hogs lost 4.10 cents, October -3.07, December -2.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 896 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,882 to their short positions.Commercial interests added 1,020 to their long positions and also added 27 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.64:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.76:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.77:1.

Year to date, October live cattle is the out performer with a loss of 0.54%, August live cattle -1.13%, October lean hogs -12.84%, August lean hogs -14.92%.

Thus far in the second quarter, October live cattle is the out performer with a gain of 1.29%, August live cattle +0.65%, August lean hogs -1.38%, October lean hogs -3.37%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, July WTI crude oil advanced 83 cents, August +84, September +88. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,077 of their long positions and added 1,827 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,804 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,592 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 4.83:1, which is down from the previous week of 5.08:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.85:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, July heating oil advanced 1.96 cents, August +1.87, September +1.98. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 888 contracts of their long positions and added 23 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,443 to their long positions and also added 3,746 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.17:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.11:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, July gasoline advanced 9.11 cents, August +7.90, September +6.94. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,120 of their long positions and added 454 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,523 to their long positions and liquidated 1,475 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.48:1, which is down from the previous week up 1.68:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.55:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, July natural gas advanced 16.00 cents, August +15.50, September +16.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,030 to their long positions and also added 14,454 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,727 to their long positions and liquidated 4,063 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.77:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.72:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.44:1.

The current short ratio of 1.77:1 breaks the previous record of 1.75:1 derived from the May 12 COT report. 

Year to date, July gasoline is the out performer with a gain of 22.11%, July.WTI crude oil +11.33%, August Brent crude oil +10.91%, July heating oil +3.11%, July natural gas -8.70%, July ethanol -9.16%.

Thus far in the second quarter, July WTI crude oil is the out performer with a gain of 25.92%, July gasoline +21.56%, August Brent crude oil +15.55%, July heating oil +9.13%, July natural gas -0.04%, July ethanol -0.61%.

Copper: On June 12, July copper generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on May 26.

For the week, July copper lost 1.45 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,877 of their long positions and added 6,478 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,853 to their long positions and liquidated 2,345 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.12:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by a ratio of 1.14:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was long copper by a ratio of 2.19:1.

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium lost $12.80. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,259 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,945 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 311 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,357 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 3.39:1, which is a huge reduction from the previous week’s ratio of 6.30:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 6.94:1.

Platinum:

For the week, July platinum advanced $4.80. The COT report revealed that managed money added 324 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,352 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 396 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,584 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.42:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.56:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.06:1.

Gold:

For the week, August gold advanced $11.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,104 of their long positions and added 20,004 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,554 to their long positions and liquidated 10,769 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.45:1, which is a substantial reduction from the previous week of 1.97:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.13:1.

Silver:

For the week, July silver lost 15.9 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,453 of their long positions and added 23,807 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,012 of their long positions and also liquidated 11,213 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 1.24:1, which is a dramatic reduction from the previous week when they were long by a ratio of 4.12:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was long silver by a record high for 2015 of 5.05:1.

Year to date, July silver is the out performer with a gain of 1.63%, August gold -0.57%, July copper -5.22%, September palladium -7.62%, July platinum -8.97%.

Thus far in the second quarter, September palladium is the out performer with a gain of 0.31%, August gold -0.41%, July copper -2.32%, July platinum -3.64%, July silver -4.60%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the September Canadian dollar advanced 79 pips.The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 7,657 of their long positions and added 6,942 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 3.03:1, which is a dramatic increase from the previous week of 1.33:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when leverage funds were long the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 1.18:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the September Australian dollar advanced 1.21 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 449 contracts of their long positions and added 3,665 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 2.30:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.06:1 and substantially above the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.47:1.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the September Swiss franc advanced 1.26 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 601 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,057 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the Swiss franc by a ratio of 2.63:1, which is a major increase from the previous week of 1.87:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.16:1.

British Pound:

For the week, the September British pound advanced 2.78 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 3,370 of their long positions and added 4,582 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 1.80:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 2.27:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.21:1.

Euro:

For the week, the September euro advanced 1.41 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 455 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 12,712 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 3.18:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.67:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.27:1.

From the June 7 Weekend Wrap:

“The current short ratio of 3.67:1 breaks below the previous low print of 3.89:1 recorded from the March 10, 2015 COT report. Finally, managed money is blowing out of short positions, but we think there is more to go before the euro tops.”

Yen:

For the week, the September yen advanced 140 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 3,828 of their long positions and added 14,900 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 5.93:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 4.57:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 3.89:1.

Dollar index: On June 10, the September dollar index generated a short-term sell signal, after generating an intermediate term sell signal on June 4.

For the week, the September dollar index lost 1.38 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 6,390 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,051 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the dollar index by a ratio of 1.08:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 1.44:1 and slightly below the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.17:1.

Year to date, the September Swiss franc is the out performer with a gain of 6.72%, September dollar index +5.20%, September British pound -0.11%, September yen -3.05%, September Australian dollar -4.74%, September Canadian dollar -5.42%, September euro -7.07%.

Thus far in the second quarter, the September British pound is the out performer with a gain of 4.83%, September euro +4.72%, September Swiss franc +4.44%, September Canadian dollar +2.93%, September Australian dollar +2.06%, September yen -2.81%, September dollar index -3.49%.

S&P 500 E mini: On June 8, the June and September S&P 500 E mini generated short term sell signals, but remain on intermediate term buy signals.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the June S&P 500 futures contract advanced 0.90 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 603 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,781 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.56:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.31:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago a 1.11:1.

Year to date, the S&P 400 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 5.40%, NASDAQ 100 cash index +5.14%, Russell 2000 cash index +5.01%, S&P 500 cash index +1.71%, New York Composite cash index +1.58%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +0.43%.

Thus far in the second quarter, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 2.77%, S&P 500 cash index +1.27%, New York Composite cash index +1.02%, Russell 2000 cash index +0.98%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index + 0.69%, S&P 400 cash index +0.45%.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the September 10 year treasury note gained 6.6 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 50,560 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 99,834 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year treasury note by a ratio of 1.32:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 1.76:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.68:1.