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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, June 10 through Tuesday, June 16.

Soybeans: On June 17, July soybeans generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal

For the week, July soybeans advanced 31.50 cents, August +33.75, new crop November +35.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 10,853 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 8,069 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 18,142 of their long positions and added 405 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybeans by a ratio of 1.72:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.10:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.13:1.

Soybean meal: On June 16, July soybean meal generated a short-term buy signal, and an intermediate term buy signal on June 19.

For the week, July soybean meal advanced $5.70, August +9.20, new crop December +12.20. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,579 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,853 of their short positions.Commercial interests liquidated 5,290 of their long positions and added 7,347 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.01:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was short by a ratio of 1.14:1.

Soybean oil: On June 18, July and August soybean oil generated short-term sell signals, but remain on intermediate term buy signals.

For the week, July soybean oil lost 59 points, August -53, new crop December -41. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 9,052 of their long positions and added 15,652 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 8,698 to their long positions and liquidated 21,250 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 2.01:1, which is a dramatic drop from the previous high ratio of 3.63:1 and the ratio of 3.15:1 made two weeks ago.

Corn:

For the week, July corn gained 0.25 cents, September unchanged, new crop December -0.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,896 of their long positions and added 32,117 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 11,835 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 15,138 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short corn by a ratio of 1.69:1, which is above the previous week of 1.50:1, but down slightly from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.71:1.

Chicago wheat: On June 16, July Chicago wheat generated an intermediate term sell signal, but remains on a short term buy signal.

For the week, July Chicago wheat lost 15.25  cents, September -18.00, new crop December -18.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 10,836 of their long positions and added 2,949 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,928 to their long positions and liquidated 7,065 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.75:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.45:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.16:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, Kansas City wheat lost 22.75 cents, September -22.75, new crop December -20.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,531 to their long positions and also added 1,547 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 636 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 165 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.03:1, which is the same ratio as the previous week of 1.03:1, but slightly above the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.01:1.

Cotton:

For the week, July, lost 75 points, new crop December -76, March 2016 -88. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,125 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,178 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,127 to their long positions and liquidated 9,098 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 2.14:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 2.17:1 and up substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.61:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, July sugar lost 60 points, October -52, March 2016 -36. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,495 contracts to their long positions and also added 28,271 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,718 to long positions and liquidated 27,776 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.56:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.39:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.42:1.

During the past week, July, October and March 2016 sugar made new contract lows of 11.10, 11.52, and 13.08 respectively.

Coffee:

For the week, July coffee lost 4.90 cents, September -4.30, December -4.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 280 contracts of their long positions and added 2,169 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,816 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,226 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.27:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.19:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.56:1.

Cocoa:

For the week, July cocoa advanced $130.00, September +115.00, December +110.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,041 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,539 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,515 of their long positions and added 622 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 2.76:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.02:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.67:1.

During the past week, July, September and December cocoa made new contract highs of $3,304, 3,299, 3,283 respectively.

It is surprising that managed money is net long by such a low number. We examined the COT stats from the time when cocoa traded at nearly the same level as it did this week.We found that participation was much higher during September 2014 when the December 2014 contract made a high of $3,399 during the week of September 22, 2014. The COT report of September 23, 2014 showed that managed money was long cocoa by a ratio of 4.83:1, or a net long position of 73,074 contracts. The report of September 16, 2014 revealed that managed money was long by a ratio of 4.15:1, or net long position of 69,318 contracts.

Currently, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 2.76:1, or a net long position of 44,968 contracts, which is substantially below the participation rate of September 2014. In summary, it appears that managed money is not convinced the rally has enough strength to merit long positions equal to those of the September 2014 market.

Live cattle:

For the week, August live cattle lost 13 points, October +5, December +37. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,570 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 82 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 111 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 6,471 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 6.77:1, which is down from the previous week of 7.03:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 8.24:1.

For the past several weeks, managed money has been reducing their net long position in live cattle.

Lean hogs:

For the week, August lean hogs lost 2.90 cents, October -3.08, December -3.05. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,294 of their long positions and added 1,626 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 25 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,931 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.48:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.64:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.76:1.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, July WTI crude oil lost 35 cents, August -43, September -48. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 893 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,319 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 15,058 to their long positions and also added 14,497 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 5.09:1, which is up from the previous week of 4.83:1 and nearly the same as the ratio two weeks ago of 5.08:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, July heating oil lost 2.23 cents, August -2.42, September -2.57. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,449 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,459 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 12,005 contracts to their long positions and also added 13,150 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.10:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.20:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.17:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, July gasoline lost 6.25 cents, August -5.49, September -4.91. The COT report revealed that managed money added 8,519 contracts to their long positions and also added 730 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 18,372 contracts to their long positions and also added 24,491 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.66:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.48:1 and fractionally below the ratio made two weeks ago of 1.68:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, July natural gas advanced 6.6 cents, August +6.4, September +6.0. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,716 of their long positions and also liquidated 31,166 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,487 contracts to their long positions and also added 11,685 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.65:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.77:1 (the high short ratio recorded during the past year) and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.72:1.

Copper:

For the week, July copper lost 10.90 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,683 contracts to of their long positions and also added 5,334 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,229 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,168 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.19:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.12:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was long copper by a ratio of 1.14:1.

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium lost $30.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 404 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,734 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 93 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 944 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 2.68:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 3.39:1 and massively below the ratio of two weeks ago of 6.30:1.

During the past week, the September palladium contract made a new contract low of $705.35.

Platinum:

For the week, July platinum lost $10.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,196 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,470 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 79 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 684 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.37:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.42:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.56:1.

During the past week, July platinum made a new contract low of $1071.50.

Gold: On June 19, August gold generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, August gold advanced $22.70. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,402 contracts to their long positions and also added 6,043 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,034 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,946 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.39:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.45:1 and substantially below the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.97:1.

Silver:

For the week, July silver advanced 28.4 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,179 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,128 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 156 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,586 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 1.02:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.24:1 and approximately 75% below the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.12:1.

Canadian dollar: On June 18, the September Canadian dollar generated a short-term buy signal, and remains on intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the September Canadian dollar advanced 43 pips.The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,000 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,059 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 2.17:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.03:1, but up from the ratio of 1.33:1 made two weeks ago.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the September Australian dollar advanced 32 pips.The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 7,423 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,745 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 1.58:1, which is substantially below the ratio of the previous week of 2.30:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.06:1.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the September Swiss franc advanced 1.27 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,031 contracts of their long positions and added 114 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the Swiss franc by a ratio of 2.25:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.63:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.87:1.

British Pound: On June 16, the September British pound generated a short-term buy signal, which reversed the short-term sell signal of June 1. The September pound remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the September British pound advanced 3.28 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,671 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,257 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 1.63:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.80:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.27:1.

Euro:

For the week, the September euro advanced 91 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added a massive 29,597 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 10,570 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 1.52:1, which is a massive reduction from the previous week when they were short by 3.18:1 and the ratio of 3.67:1 recorded two weeks ago.

Remarkably, the current short ratio of 1.52:1 is the lowest of 2015, even though the euro traded at substantially higher prices during January 2015. For example, for the week of January 5, 2015, the March 2015 euro closed at 1.1848 and the COT report for January 6, 2015 revealed that leverage funds were short by a ratio of 6.07:1. In summary, leverage funds are the least bearish in the current COT report than at any other time in 2015, but also for a good portion of 2014.

When we examine the fourth quarter of 2014 when the euro was trading in the mid-1.20 area, leverage funds were considerably more bearish than the sentiment reflected in current COT report. For example, during the week of December 15, 2014, the March 2015 euro traded in a range of 1.2229-1.2579, yet the COT report of December 16, 2014 revealed that leverage funds were short the euro by a ratio of 3.72:1.

If we examine the records of COT reports of October 2014, the December 2014 euro was trading in the high 1.20 area, but leverage funds were considerably more bearish than the stats reflected in the current report. For example, during the week of October 13, 2014 the December euro traded in a range of 1.2630-1.2893 and the COT report of October 14, 2014 showed leverage funds short by a ratio of 3.15:1 and the October 21, 2014 report by a ratio of 3.12:1.

When the December 2014 euro was trading in the low 1.30 area in early September 2014, again, leverage funds were far more bearish than today’s ratio of 1.52:1. For example, the COT report of September 9, 2014 showed that managed money was short by a ratio of 2.75:1 while the trading range for the December euro during the week of September 1, 2014 was from 1.2910-1.3161 and for the week of September 8, 2014: 1.2860-1.2980.

The high short ratio recorded during the course of the bear market in the euro occurred in the April 7, 2015 COT report when leverage funds were short the euro by a ratio of 11.23:1. Since then, the net short position has been reduced dramatically, and as a result there is going to be considerably less buying pressure emanating from distressed short-sellers.

Based upon the trading activity of the euro from June 17 through June 19, it is likely that the short ratio will decline again in next week’s report. However, in order for the euro to continue its advance after large numbers of short sellers have been blown out is that new buyers must step up and pay ever higher prices. We think this is unlikely and though the euro may exhibit support for another week or two, this is a rally in a bear market that will fade in due course. On June 4, the September euro generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.

From the June 7 Weekend Wrap:

“The current short ratio of 3.67:1 breaks below the previous low print of 3.89:1 recorded from the March 10, 2015 COT report. Finally, managed money is blowing out of short positions, but we think there is more to go before the euro tops.”

Yen:

For the week, the September yen advanced 50 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added a massive 20,329 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 7,937 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 3.01:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 5.93:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.57:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the September dollar index lost 96 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 8,609 contracts of their long positions and added 4,003 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the dollar index by a ratio of 2.03:1, which is almost double the previous week’s ratio of 1.08:1 and nearly 50% greater than the ratio of 1.44:1 recorded two weeks ago.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the September S&P 500 futures contract gained 12.80 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,214 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,497 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.51:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.56:1, but up from the ratio of 1.31:1 recorded two weeks ago.

10 Year Treasury Note: The September 10 year treasury note will generate a short-term buy signal if the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for June 19 of 126-185.

For the week, the 10 year treasury note advanced 1-8.4 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 38,685 contracts of their long positions and added 96,600 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year treasury note by a ratio of 1.69:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.32:1, but down from the ratio of 1.76:1 recorded two weeks ago.

Although the talk in the financial markets has been about the decline in the 10 year treasury note and increasing yields, surprisingly, it may be about to reverse.While we will not know this until next week, on June 19, the September note advanced 23 points, which was the 4th day out of the past 5 that prices have advanced. Preliminary stats from the exchange for June 19 show that total open interest increased by 37,673 contracts on volume of 973,045. While the final stats are likely to change, the open interest increase relative to volume is large, approximately 25% above average.

However, this is a marked change from the three previous advances, which occurred on June 15 (+9 points), June 16 (+10 points), and June 17 (+8.5 points). On each of those days, total open interest declined and the cumulative decline for three days was 54,800 contracts. With leverage funds massively short the 10 year note, this is not a terrible surprise.The massive open interest increases on Friday’s advance could just be Johnny-come-lately’s getting on board at a top or temporary top. This week should tell the story.