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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, February 18 through Tuesday, February 24.

Soybeans:

For the week, March soybeans gained 31.50 cents, May +29.50, July +28.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 8,535 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,948 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 25,199 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 7,417 of their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio of 1.29:1, which is an increase from the previous week’s ratio of 1.11:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was short soybeans by a ratio of 1.09:1

Soybean meal:

For the week, March soybean meal gained $6.20, May +3.70, July +3.40. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,676 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 939 of their short positions.Commercial interests liquidated 12,350 contracts of their long positions and added 2,420 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money as long soybean meal by ratio of 1.85:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.72:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.46:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, March soybean oil gained 1.32 cents, May +1.28, July +1.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,413 contracts of their long positions and added 2,430 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 16,208 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 16,227 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by ratio 1.59:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.74:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago 1.17:1.

Corn:

For the week, March corn lost 0.75 cents, May +0.25, July +0.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,212 contracts of their long positions and added 13,885 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 55,074 of their long positions and also liquidated 29,777 of their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 1.41:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.57:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.66:1.

The current ratio of 1.41:1 is the lowest recorded during the current bear market.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, March Chicago wheat gained 7.25 cents, May +6.00, July +5.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 963 contracts of their long positions and added 6,372 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,506 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 8,903 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.45:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.34:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.38:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, March Kansas City wheat gained 1.25 cents, May +1.25, July +0.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 877 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,358 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,401 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,086 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.21:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.43:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago 1.50:1.

The current ratio of 1.21:1 is the lowest of the current bear market.

Year to date, May soybean oil is the out performer with a gain of 1.86%, May soybean meal +0.44%, May soybeans +0.12%, May corn -3.08%, May Chicago wheat -13.71%, May Kansas City wheat -14.57%.

Cotton:

For the week, March cotton advanced 6 points, May +27, July +18. The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,032 to their long positions and liquidated 6,388 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,975 of their long positions and added 9,482 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 3.26:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 2.21:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.74:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, March sugar lost 46 points, May -55, July -57. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,208 contracts of their long positions and added 23,978 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 15,678 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 33,202 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.23:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.05:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.21:1.

Coffee:

For the week, March coffee lost 11.90 cents, May -12.40, July -12.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,010 contracts of their long positions and added 5,703 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,738 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,955 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money as long coffee by ratio of 1.22:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.60:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.76:1.

The current ratio of 1.22:1 is the lowest of the current bear market.

From the February 22 Weekend Wrap:

“The performance of coffee thus far in 2015 has been disappointing to say the least, however, we think that patient speculators will be well rewarded as the robust pace of exports finally meets the reality of dwindling supplies.Commercial interests continue to get less bearish as prices decline.”

“For example, on December 2, 2014, the COT report showed that commercials were net short by 64,429 contracts, or a short ratio of 2.51:1. By January 6, 2015 the net short position had been pared to 50,545 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.97:1. According to the February 17 COT report, the net short position of commercial interests is down to 33,366 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.56:1.”

The exodus of commercial interests from their short positions continued unabated in the most recent COT report while this category of market participant was adding to long positions. The current report shows that commercials are net short by 24,673 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.40:1. As the above paragraph indicates, commercial interests were net long by 64,429 contracts, or a short ratio of 2.51:1 on December 2, 2014.

At the current rate, it is likely commercials will be net long at some point during the next several weeks. In short, commercial interests are becoming far less bearish as prices move lower while managed money speculators are becoming increasingly bearish. This bodes well for advancing coffee prices in the intermediate-longer-term.

Coffee prices began to accelerate their decline beginning on February 17. From February 17 through February 23, total open interest for February 17,18, 19 and 23 (days when prices declined) increased by 2,748. May coffee fell a total of 18.50 cents during this time.

On February 25, total open interest increased by 4,048 while May coffee lost 5.45 cents and on February 26, total open interest increased by 2617 when the May contract fell 2.90 cents.

In short, total open interest increased by 6.665 contracts in 2 days when coffee prices fell 8.35 cents. The open interest increase is more than twice (+6,665) compared to the previous four-day period (+2,748) even though prices declined less than half of the previous four days (-8.35 vs. -18.50)).  In our view, this indicates the likelihood of a short term bottom as Johnny-come-lately’s become increasingly bearish on coffee. 

Cocoa:

For the week, March cocoa gained $75.00, May +37.00, July +36.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 9,003 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,430 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,084 to their long positions and also added 15,919 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 4.88:1, which is down from the previous week of 5.18:1 (the high ratio thus far in the current bull market), but above the ratio two weeks ago a 3.90:1.

Year to date, May cotton is the out performer with a gain of 6.32%, May cocoa +4.29%, May sugar -7.71%, May coffee -17.01%.

Live cattle:

For the week, April live cattle gained 3.18 cents, June +1.98, August +1.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 729 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 712 of their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 638 contracts of their long positions and added 882 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 4.07:1, which is up from the previous week’s ratio of 3.87:1 (which is the lowest ratio thus far in the bear market), but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.37:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, April lean hogs gained 7 points, June +1.15, August +1.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 282 contracts of their long positions and added 2,878 to their short positions. Commercial interest added 208 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,800 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.92:1 which is down from the previous week of 2.13:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.31:1.

The current ratio of 1.92:1 is the lowest of the bear market.

Year to date, April live cattle is the out performer with a loss of 7.33%, July cattle -7.54%, June lean hogs -9.48%, April lean hogs -18.61%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, April WTI crude oil gained $1.05, May 5 cents, June +39. The COT report revealed that managed money added 8,615 contracts to their long positions and also added 18,746 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 19,745 contracts to their long positions and also added 18,096 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio of 2.66:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.07:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.85:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, April heating oil gained 6.36 cents, May +5.81, June +5.74. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,070 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,247 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 10,586 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 6,540 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money short heating oil by ratio of 1.39:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.57:1 and down substantially from a high ratio of 1.99:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, April gasoline gained 13.62 cents, May +12.22, June +11.04. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,655 contracts of their long positions and added 2,866 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,340 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,398 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 2.11:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.36:1 and down substantially from the ratio of 2.70:1 two week’s ago.

Natural gas:

For the week, April natural gas lost 23.8 cents, May -23.2, June-21.7. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,439 contracts to their long positions also added 11,027 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 9,441 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,234 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.30:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.27:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.29:1.

Year to date, April gasoline is the out performer with the gain of 14.32%, April heating oil +8.81%, April Brent rude oil +4.71%, April natural gas -5.83%, April ethanol -5.96%, April WTI crude oil -10.03%.

Copper: On February 25, May copper generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, May copper gained 10.05 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,655 contacts to their long positions and liquidated 5,193 of their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 6,158 contracts of their long positions and added 2,861 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.008:1, which is down substantially from the previous week’s ratio of 1.25:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.39:1.

Palladium:

For the week, June palladium gained $38.65. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 828 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 327 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 589 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 63 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 7.50:1, which is up from the previous week of 6.96:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 6.73:1.

Platinum:

For the week, April platinum gained $16.10. The  COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 290 contracts of their long positions and added 3,044 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 362 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,311 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by ratio of 1.86:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.31:1 and down substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 3.03:1.

Gold: On February 24, April gold generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on February 9.

For the week, April gold gained $8.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,000 contracts of their long positions and added 2,205 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,984 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 753 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money as long gold by a ratio of 3.55:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.91:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago of 6.61:1.

Silver:

For the week, May silver gained 23.8 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,920 of their long positions and also liquidated 503 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 781 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,703 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 2.92:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.08:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.56:1.

Year to date, May silver is the out performer with a gain of 5.84%, June palladium +2.36%, April gold +2.35%, April platinum -1.75%, May copper -4.83%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the March Canadian dollar gained 12 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 444 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,881 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 4.80:1, which is up from the previous week of 4.64:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.29:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the March Australian dollar lost 29 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 121 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,723 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by ratio of 3.54:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.34:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago while 4.29:1.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the March Swiss franc lost 1.41 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 932 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 563 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.60:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.92:1 and the ratio of 1.80:1 two weeks ago.

British Pound:

For the week, but March British pound gained 42 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,562 contracts to their long positions and also added 305 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the British pound by a ratio of 1.39:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.51:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.73:1.

Euro:

For the week, the March euro lost 2.04 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 431 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,415 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 6.61:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 6.59:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 7.05:1.

Yen:

For the week, the March yen lost 47 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,166 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 917 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 5.11:1, which is down from the previous week of 6.73:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 5.51:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the March dollar index gained 98 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,605 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,345 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 1.26:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.28:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.36:1.

Year to date, the March dollar index is the out performer with the gain of 5.16%, March Swiss franc +4.02%, March yen +0.11%, March British pound -0.86%, March Australian dollar -3.92%, March Canadian dollar -6.96%, March euro -7.55%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, but Mark S&P 500 futures contract lost 4.30 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 417 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,704 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.18:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 1.86:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.36:1.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 4.83%, S&P 400 cash index +3.72%, Russell 2000 cash index +2.38%, S&P 500 cash index +2.22%, New York Composite cash index +2.06%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +1.74%.