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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, March 4 through Tuesday, March 10.

Soybeans:

For the week, May soybeans lost 11.00 cents, July -12.50, November 2015 -12.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 15,028 of their long positions and added 3,351 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 24,517 contracts to their long positions and also added 14,288 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by a ratio of 1.04:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.28:1 and ratio of two weeks ago of 1.29:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, May soybean meal lost 70 cents, July -$1.30, December 2015 -2.40.The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,759 to their long positions and also added 1,692 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,543 to their long positions and also added 10,812 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.60:1, which is the same as the previous week, 1.60:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.85:1.

Soybean oil: On March 9, May soybean oil generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the short-term buy signal of March 2. May soybean oil remains on intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, May soybean oil lost 79 points, July -77, December 2015 -59. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,763 of their long positions and added 15,324 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,690 to their long positions and liquidated 17,485 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 1.41:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 2.18:1, and down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.59:1.

Corn:

For the week, May corn lost 5.50 cents, July -6.00, December 2015 -6.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,745 of their long positions and added 14,790 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 14,109 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 12,366 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 1.08:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.20:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.41:1.

The current ratio of 1.08:1 is the lowest recorded going back to the COT report of October 7, 2014 when managed money was long by a ratio of 1.22:1.This report reflected the sentiment of managed money when December 2014 corn made its contract low on October 1 at 3.18 1/4. On March 10, the day of the compilation of the COT report, May corn closed at 3.82 1/4, or 64 cents above October 1, 2014 contract low.

Remarkably managed money is far less bullish at its current higher price than they were when corn traded at a significantly lower price. On October 7, 2014 managed money was net long by 58,274 contracts and on March 10, 2015 were net long 14,866 contracts.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, May Chicago wheat gained 19.50 cents, July +16.75, December 2015 +15.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,389 contracts of their long positions and added 7,762 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 11,272 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,377 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 2.32:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.04:1 and up dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.45:1.

The current ratio of 2.32:1 is the highest recorded during the current bear market and that of the third quarter 2014 when managed money was short by a ratio of 1.91:1 on September 23, 2014 and 1.77:1 recorded from the COT report of September 30, 2014.

On September 25, 2014 December 2014 Chicago wheat made its contract low of 4.66  1/4, and the current contract low for the May option is 4.78 1/2  made on March 6. In summary, managed money is far more bearish at current levels than they were when prices were somewhat lower.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, May Kansas City wheat gained 17.00 cents, July +16.25, December 2015 +15.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,946 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,756 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,979 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,640 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.16:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.05:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.21:1.

Year to date, May soybean meal is the out performer with a loss of 4.08%,May soybeans -5.48%, May soybean oil -5.75%, May corn -6.22%, May Kansas City wheat -14.61%, May Chicago wheat -15.56%.

Cotton: On March 11, May cotton generated a short and intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, May cotton lost 2.47 cents, July -2.18, December 2015 -1.98. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,216 of their long positions and added 6,659 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 813 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 12,087 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 2.26:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 3.30:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago a 3.26:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, May sugar lost 74 points, July -83, October -86. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,578 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,009 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 20,768 to their long positions and also added 20,841 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.72:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.70:1, but up dramatically from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.23:1.

During the past week, May, July and October 2015 sugar made new contract lows of 12.57, 12.70, and 13.24 respectively. The current contract low of 12.57 is the lowest on the monthly continuation chart since April 2009 when May 2009 sugar made a low of 12.13 cents.

Coffee:

May coffee lost 10.05 cents,July -9.85, September -9.70. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,418 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,649 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,810 contracts to their long positions liquidated 505 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by ratio of 1.11:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.06:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was long by a ratio of 1.22:1.

As of the latest COT report, commercial interests are net short 11,898 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.16:1. As the report from March 8 indicates, commercial interests have been reducing their net short position for the past three months. Although, we have no idea when and at what price coffee will find its bottom, we are confident once the market has found stasis, that tightness of supply will begin to reassert itself. The dramatic collapse of the Brazilian real against the dollar has done much to pressure prices, however it appears the Brazilian central bank is determined to fight inflation by raising interest rates, which at some point will begin to support the currency. May coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

From the March 8 Weekend Wrap:

“The exodus of commercial interests from their short positions continued unabated in the most recent COT report while this category of market participant was adding to long positions. The current report shows that commercials are net short by 14,213 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.20:1. This is a dramatic reduction during the past couple of weeks. For example, the net short position of commercial interests on February 17 was 33,366 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.56:1. In other words, the net short position of commercial interests has been cut in half in just two COT reports. Only three months ago, commercial interests were net long by 64,429 contracts, or a short ratio of 2.51:1 on December 2, 2014.”

Cocoa: On March 11, May cocoa generated a short-term sell signal and generated an intermediate term sell signal on March 12.

For the week, May cocoa lost $127.00, July -120.00, September -116.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 378 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,816 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,877 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,121 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 3.92:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.33:1, but down sharply from the ratio of two weeks ago a 4.88:1.

Year to date, May cotton is the out performer with a loss of 0.93%, May cocoa -2.56%, May sugar -14.88%, May coffee -23.33%.

Live cattle:

For the week, April live cattle lost 38 points, June -1.83 cents, August -1.30. The COT report revealed that managed money added 846 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 629 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,025 of their long positions and added 2,219 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 4.07:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.87:1 and exactly the same as the ratio of two weeks ago a 4.07:1.

On Friday, clients were stopped out of their long positions after June cattle violated the March 10 low of 1.45250, which was OIA’s recommended exit. On March 5, June cattle generated a short-term buy signal, and the market advanced to a high of 1.47675 on March 9, but has traded sideways to lower ever since. In short, the buy signal was weak, and the cattle market faces a number of crosscurrents including a sharply higher dollar, poor exports and competition from cheaper pork and chicken and imported products. June cattle will generate a short-term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 13 of 1.43400. At this juncture, we recommend a sideline stance.

Lean hogs:

For the week, April lean hogs lost 4.02 cents, June -4.63,  August -5.70. The COT report revealed that managed money added 521 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 146 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,586 of their long positions and added 2,562 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by ratio of 1.61:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.59:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.92:1.

During the past week, April, June and August lean hogs made new contract lows of 61.12, 73.50, and 75.10 respectively.

Year to date, April live cattle is the out performer with a loss of 5.76%, June live cattle -6.62%, June lean hogs -17.61%, April lean hogs -25.09%.

WTI crude oil: On March 11, April and May WTI crude oil generated short-term sell signals, which reversed the February 13 short-term buy signals. April and May WTI remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, April WTI crude oil lost $4.77, May -4.41, June -4.11. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,053 to their long positions and also added 4,962 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 33,636 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 37,586 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 2.14:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.21:1 in the ratio two weeks: 2.66:1.

In last week’s report, we went back to the September 2, 2014 COT report and could not find a ratio lower than the one recorded last week. This week, we examined our records going back to the COT report of March 11, 2014 and could not find a ratio anywhere near the current ratio of 2.14:1.In other words, managed money is extremely bearish on crude oil.

Brent crude oil: On March 11, May Brent crude oil generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the short-term buy signal of February 3. May Brent crude oil remains on intermediate term sell signal.

Heating oil: On March 13, April and May heating oil generated short-term sell signals, which reversed the February 3 short-term buy signals. April and May heating oil remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, April heating oil lost 15.60 cents, May -14.98, June -14.44. The COT report revealed that managed money added 508 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,904 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,105 to their long positions and liquidated 4,014 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money short heating oil by a ratio of 1.40:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.36:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.39:1.

Gasoline: On March 13, April and May gasoline generated short-term sell signals, which reversed the short term buy signals of February 3. April and May gasoline remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, April gasoline lost 11.96 cents, May -12.17, June -12.01. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,831 of their long positions and added 5,321 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,668 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,026 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio 1.94:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.31:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.11:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, April natural gas lost 11.2 cents, May -11.6, June -10.6. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,959 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,109 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,623 to their long positions and also added 3,076 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.35:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.38:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.30:1.

Year to date, April gasoline is the out performer with a gain of 1.62%, April heating oil -5.10%, April natural gas -5.42%, April ethanol -7.44%, May Brent crude oil -7.91%, April WTI crude oil -17.65%.

Copper:

For the week, May copper gained 5.45 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,094 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 257 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 500 contracts to their long positions and also added 455 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by a ratio of 1.06:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.03:1. Two weeks ago managed money was short by a ratio of 1.008:1.

Palladium:

For the week, June palladium lost $29.45. The COT report revealed that managed money added 450 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 345 of their short positions.Commercial interests added 342 contracts to their long positions and also added 354 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 10.17:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 8.50:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 7.50:1.

Platinum:

For the week, April platinum lost $43.60. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,278 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,716 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 242 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,533 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.80:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.91:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.86:1.

During the past week, April platinum made a new contract low of $1112.50, which is the lowest print on the monthly chart since July 2009 when platinum made a low on the continuation chart of $1090.00

Gold:

For the week, April gold lost $11.90. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 8,247 of their long positions and added 16,039 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,502 to their long positions and liquidated 11,872 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.83:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 2.72:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 3.55:1.

Silver:

For the week, May silver lost 31.3 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,593 to their long positions and also added 6,575 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,356 to their long positions and liquidated 2,875 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 1.59:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.03:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago up 2.92:1.

Year to date, May silver is the out performer with a loss of 0.57%, June palladium -0.62%, April Gold -2.49%, May copper -5.33%, April platinum -7.71%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the June Canadian dollar lost 1.15 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,418 of their long positions and added 2,675 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 5.47:1, which is up from the previous week of 4.28:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.80:1.

During the past week, the June Canadian dollar made a new contract low of 77.87.This is the lowest print since 76.53 made during March of 2009.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the June Australian dollar lost 99 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,274 contracts to their long positions and also added 10,089 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 4.50:1, which is down from the previous week up 4.90:1, but up from the ratio of two weeks ago a 3.54:1.

During the past week, the June Australian dollar made a new contract low of 75.17.This is the lowest print since 72.20 made during May 2009.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the June Swiss franc lost 2.30 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 809 contracts of their long positions and added 3,066 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.88:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.41:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago 1.60:1.

CHFEUR:

It appears that the Swiss-Euro cross is about to resume its uptrend. Basically from February 19 through March 12, the cross has been trading sideways to higher and during this time CHFEUR gained 1.28%. During the past couple of days beginning on March 10, the daily lows and highs have been higher and the big move on March 13 confirmed the uptrend.

For the rally to continue, the low of the day must be above of OIA’s key pivot point for March 13 of .94144. Once this occurs, we expect a pullback lasting from 1-3 days and this will be the opportunity to initiate bullish positions in the cross. After the pull back, CHFEUR must make daily lows above OIA’s key pivot points for March 13 of .94859 and .95689 for the move to be sustainable. Those who subscribe to OIA Direct, please call with any question.

British Pound:

For the week, the June British pound lost 3.25 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 987 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,085 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the British pound by a ratio of 1.49:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.33:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.39:1.

During the past week, the June British pound made a new contract low of 1.4689. This is the lowest print since 1.4346 made during June 2010.

Euro:

For the week, the June euro lost 3.88 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 17,193 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,226 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 3.89:1, which is a dramatic drop from the previous week of 6.29:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 6.61:1.

During the past week, the June euro made a new contract low of 1.0473. Based upon the substantial addition of long positions, it appears that leverage funds were attempting to pick a bottom in the euro.

From the March 8 Weekend Wrap:

“We took a look at the long-term euro chart and it appears that the euro found support in the third quarter of 2003 approximately 1 cent below the closing price on March 6. The August 2003 low was 1.0786 and the September 2003 low took out the August 2003 low by 27 pips (1.0759). The next area of support is the March 2003 low of 1.0470 and the April 2003 low of 1.0534.”

“We think it is likely the euro has already discounted much of quantitative easing by the ECB and the downward path may be a very rocky road for short sellers.”

Our analysis last week was incorrect when we thought the euro had likely discounted the effects of quantitative easing. We thought erroneously the market would find support at the lows made during the third quarter 2003. As it turned out, the euro broke through the lows and last week made a new contract low of 1.0473, which is slightly above the March 2003 print of 1.0470. Based upon our re-examination of the chart, there is no support until the euro breaks below the 1.00 level.

Yen:

For the week, the June yen lost 44 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,118 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,187 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short by a ratio of 2.70:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.62:1, but down dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago of 5.11:1.

During the past week, the June yen made a new contract low of .8205.This is the lowest print since .8158 made during July 2007.

Dollar index:

For the week, the June dollar index gained 2.70 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 585 contracts of their long positions and remarkably added 7,964 to their short positions.As of the latest report, leverage funds are now short the dollar index by a ratio of 1.21:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by 1.12:1. Two weeks ago, leverage funds were long the dollar index by a ratio of 1.26:1.

The fact that leverage funds are trying to pick a top in the dollar index is a good indication the rally has further to go.

During the past week, the June dollar index made a new contract high of 100.78. This is the highest print since 102.19 made during April 2003.

Year to date, the June dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 10.56%, June yen -1.32%, June Swiss franc -1.47%,June British pound -5.44%, June Australian dollar -6.18%, June Canadian dollar -8.94%, June euro -13.35%.

S&P 500 (250 x): 

For the week, the June S&P 500 futures contract lost 20.90 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,212 of their long positions and added 3,862 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 2.66:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 1.49:1. Two weeks ago, leverage funds were long the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.18:1.

S&P 500 E mini: On March 11, the March and June S&P 500 E mini generated short-term sell signals.

Year to date, the S&P 400 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 2.66%, Russell 2000 cash index +2.28%, June NASDAQ 100 cash index +1.86%, June S&P 500 cash index -0.27%, June Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index -0.41%,New York Composite cash index -0.81%.

10 Year Treasury Note: On March 9, the June 10 year treasury note generated an intermediate term sell signal, after generating a short term sell signal on February 10.

For the week, the June 10 year treasury note gained 1-014. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 36,204 contracts of their long positions and added 1,163 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by a ratio of 1.39:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.29:1 and up dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.08:1.