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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, March 18 through Tuesday, March 24.

On March 31, the USDA will release the grain stocks and planting intentions report at 12 noon EDT.

Both May silver and June gold are showing head and shoulder patterns on the weekly chart. This spells trouble for further upside.

Soybeans:

For the week, May soybeans lost 6.50 cents, July -5.75, new crop November -7.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,029 contracts to their long positions and also added 959 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,758 of their long positions and added 14,296 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybeans by a ratio of 1.16:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.18:1, but a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was long soybeans by a ratio of 1.04:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, May soybean meal lost $2.60, July -1.50, new crop December -2.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 5,816 of their long positions and also liquidated 293 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,632 of their long positions also liquidated 324 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.14:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.26:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.60:1.

The current ratio of 1.14:1, is the lowest recorded during the bear market, and is substantially lower than the ratio recorded from the October 7, 2014 report of 1.78:1 when soybean meal made its contract lows.

Soybean oil:

For the week, May soybean oil lost 8 points, July -6, new crop December -9. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,854 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,619 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,143 to their long positions and also added 7,197 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by ratio of 1.08:1, which is nearly unchanged from the previous week of 1.09:1, and down substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.41:1.

Corn:

For the week, May corn gained 6.00 cents, July +6.25, new crop December +5.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,492 to their long positions and liquidated 34,639 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 18,878 of their long positions and added 31,636 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short corn by a ratio of 1.11:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 1.34:1 which has been the high ratio thus far. Two weeks ago, managed money was long corn by a ratio of 1.08:1.

Chicago wheat: On March 23, May Chicago wheat generated a short term buy signal, but remains on intermediate-term sell signal.

For the week, May Chicago wheat lost 22.25 cents, July -21.75, new crop December -21.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,126 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,691 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,112 to their long positions and liquidated 287 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 2.24:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 2.26:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.32:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, May Kansas City wheat lost 16.50 cents, July -17.25, new crop December -16.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,106 of their long positions and also liquidated 5,927 of their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 4,175 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,232 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.23:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.13:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.16:1.

Year to date, May corn is the out performer loss with a of 3.64%, May soybean oil -5.41%, May soybean meal -5.72%, May soybeans -6.14, May Kansas City wheat -12.43%, May Chicago wheat -14.59%.

Cotton:

For the week, May cotton gained 73 points, July +47, new crop December +62. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,358 of their long positions and also liquidated 7,651 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 733 to their long positions and also added 10,642 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 1.78:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.49:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.26:1.

Sugar:

For the week, May sugar lost 55 points, July -56, October -45. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,675 of their long positions and added 6,792 to their short positions.Commercial interests added 1,819 to their long positions and liquidated 869 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by ratio of 1.86:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.75:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.72:1.

The current short ratio of 1.86:1 is the highest recorded during the bear market in sugar, which began in 2014.

Coffee:

For the week, May coffee lost 5.15 cents, July -5.15, September -5.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 939 contracts of their long positions and added 1,176 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,398 to their long positions and liquidated 220 of their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.23:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.17:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.11:1.

The current short ratio of 1.23:1 is the highest recorded during the current bear market.

Commercial interests have again reduced their net short position in this week’s report, and it now totals just 8,207 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.11:1.This is a reduction from last week when commercial interests were net short by 9,825 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.13:1. Per the February 17 COT report commercial interests were net short by 33,366 contracts or short ratio of 1.56:1.On December 2, 2014 commercials were net short by 64,429 contracts, or short ratio of 2.51:1.The pattern is quite clear: commercial interests are getting increasingly bullish on coffee as prices decline.

Although, managed money has increased their net short position since the March 3 COT report, this is not pressuring prices lower. For example, from March 4 through March 24 the net short position of managed money increased from 2,112 in the March 3 report to 8,500 in the March 24 report. However, prices for May coffee from March 4 through March 24 declined only 0.18%, essentially unchanged. Total open interest increased by 13,389 contracts from March 4 through March 24, but again this did not move prices lower.

Cocoa:

For the week, May cocoa lost $46.00, July -40.00, September -38.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 5,415 of their long positions and added 6,640 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,390 to their long positions and liquidated 6,602 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 1.99:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 3.16:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 3.92:1.

For the past two COT reporting periods, commercials have been adding to long positions and liquidating short positions. In the report of March 17, commercials added 11,635 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,001 of their short positions. In summary, commercial interests have increased long positions by 18,025 contracts while they have liquidated short positions by 11,603 contracts. During this time (March 11- March 24), May cocoa has declined $130.00.

The fundamentals for cocoa are constructive, however May cocoa generated a short-term sell signal on March 11 and an intermediate term sell signal on March 12. Stand aside. 

Year to date, May cotton is the out performer with a gain of 4.06%, May cocoa -5.12%, May coffee -18.37%, May sugar -18.70.

Live cattle: On March 23, June cattle generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on March 5.

For the week, April live cattle gained 4.27 cents, June +2.50, August +1.85. The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,665 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,308 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 959 to their long positions and also added 12,528 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 5.14:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 4.26:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.07:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, April lean hogs gained 2.67 cents, June +1.15, August +1.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,581 of their long positions and added 2,097 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 378 to their long positions and liquidated 7,187 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.37:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.56:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.61:1.

The current ratio of 1.37:1 is the lowest recorded during the bear market in lean hogs, which began in mid-2014.

Year to date, April live cattle is the out performer with a loss of 0.66%, June live cattle -1.67%, June lean hogs -18.08%, April lean hogs -26.27%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, May WTI crude oil gained $2.30, June +2.07, July +1.86. The COT report revealed that managed money added 610 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,142 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,611 of their long positions and also liquidated 20,862 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 1.82:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.85:1, but down substantially from the ratio two weeks ago at 2.14:1.

The current ratio of 1.82:1 is the lowest recorded thru the COT September 3, 2013.

Heating oil:

For the week, May heating oil gained 56 points, June +63, July +77. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,405 of their long positions and added 1,114 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,192 of their long positions and also liquidated 9,992 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.99:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.66:1 and up substantially from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.40:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, May gasoline gained 20 points, June + 76, July +1.15 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 711 of their long positions and added 2,664 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,875 to their long positions and also added 1,311 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.70:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.84:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.94:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, May natural gas lost 16.4 cents, June -16.0, July -15.8. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 19,213 of their long positions and added 2,034 to their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 413 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,601 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.36:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 1.23:1, but about the same as the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.35:1.

Year to date, May gasoline is the out performer with a gain of 2.74%, May Brent crude oil -2.55%, May heating oil -4.59%, May ethanol -8.36%, May natural gas -8.51%, May WTI crude oil -12.01%.

Copper:

For the week, May copper gained 65 points. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,501 to their long positions and liquidated 8,627 of their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 2,351 of their long positions and added 6,699 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by a ratio of 1.53:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.10:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.06:1.

Palladium:

For the week, June palladium lost $38.10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 30 contracts to their long positions and also added 119 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 41 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 282 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio of 7.00:1, which is down from the previous week of 7.30:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 10.17:1.

Platinum:

For the week, July platinum lost $2.40. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 892 of their long positions and added 162 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 199 to their long positions and also added 7 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.48:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.53:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.80:1.

Gold:

For the week, June gold gained $15.30. The COT report revealed that managed money added 937 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,726 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,232 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,241 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.13:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.24:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.83:1.

Silver: On March 23, May silver generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on March 26.

For the week, May silver gained 18.6 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,976 to their long positions and liquidated 5,137 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,977 of their long positions and added 1,812 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 1.74:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.36:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.59:1.

For the two latest COT reporting periods, managed money has been long silver by a higher ratio than gold. In the previous week’s COT report, managed money was long silver by a ratio of 1.36:1 whereas they were long gold by 1.24:1. This undoubtedly reflects the superior performance of silver over gold.

Not only does the weekly silver chart show a bearish head and shoulders pattern, the silver volatility index has barely moved as prices have skyrocketed from March 19 through March 27. On March 19 the silver volatility index showed a reading of 28.16 and by March 27 showed a paltry gain of 60 basis points to 28.76.The lack of volatility indicates that market participants expect a mundane type of market.

We have written extensively during the past several days about the consecutive open interest declines that accompanied price advances beginning on March 19. Although, May silver generated a short and intermediate term buy signal this week, we consider this to be a rally on borrowed time.

Year to date, May silver is the out performer with a gain of 9.55%, June gold +1.06%, May copper -2.05%, July platinum -5.90%, June palladium -7.33%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the June Canadian dollar lost 11 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 3,728 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,012 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 5.99:1, which is up from the previous week of 4.45:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 5.47:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the June Australian dollar lost 11 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 12,887 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,376  of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 3.98:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.28:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.50:1.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the June Swiss franc gained 1.72 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 6,338 of their long positions and added 652 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.81:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 1.01:1, but slightly below the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.88:1.

CHFEUR:

Since the March 15 report, (see below) CHFEUR has advanced 0.78%, and on Friday, March 27, the cross made a daily low (.95150) above the March 13 pivot point of .94859. It has not yet made a daily low above the second pivot point, which for March 27 is .95574.

From the March 15 Weekend Wrap:

“It appears that the Swiss-Euro cross is about to resume its uptrend. Basically from February 19 through March 12, the cross has been trading sideways to higher and during this time CHFEUR gained 1.28%. During the past couple of days beginning on March 10, the daily lows and highs have been higher and the big move on March 13 confirmed the uptrend.”

“For the rally to continue, the low of the day must be above of OIA’s key pivot point for March 13 of .94144. Once this occurs, we expect a pullback lasting from 1-3 days and this will be the opportunity to initiate bullish positions in the cross. After the pull back, CHFEUR must make daily lows above OIA’s key pivot points for March 13 of .94859 and .95689 for the move to be sustainable. Those who subscribe to OIA Direct, please call with any question.”

British Pound:

For the week, the June British pound lost 66 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 10,718 of their long positions and also liquidated 8,152 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the British pound by a ratio of 1.71:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.49:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.49:1.

Euro:

For the week, the June euro advanced 93 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 8,306 of their long positions and added 17,711 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a record ratio of 9.25:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 5.98:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 3.89:1.

The current short ratio of 9.25:1 is the highest recorded during the bear market in the euro, and may signify the June euro will continue to advance.

Yen: On March 27, the June yen generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

The USDJPY cross generated a short term sell signal on March 27, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the June yen gained 75 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 4,653 of their long positions and also liquidated 9,047 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 3.07:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.89:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.70:1.

Now that the June yen is on a short-term buy signal, the market should have a pullback lasting from 1-2 days (possibly 3) before resuming its uptrend.

USDJPY should have a counter trend rally lasting 1-2 days (possibly three) before resuming its down trend.

Dollar index:

For the week, the June dollar index lost 65 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 528 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 18,578 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the dollar index by a ratio of 1.92:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 2.80:1, but up dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.21:1.

Year to date, the June dollar index is the out performer with the gain of 7.91%, June Swiss franc +3.52%, June Yen +0.59%, June British pound – 4.51%, June Australian dollar -4.89%, June Canadian dollar -7.81%, June euro -9.99%.

S&P 500 (250 X): On March 23, the June S&P 500 E mini generated a short-term buy signal, but this was reversed on March 26 when the June E mini generated a short-term sell signal. The June E mini remains on an intermediate term buy signal.  

The June S&P 500 futures contract lost 46.60 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 6,390 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,475 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.32:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by a ratio of 1.17:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 2.66:1.

Year to date, the S&P 400 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 3.86%, Russell 2000 cash index +2.96%, NASDAQ 100 cash index +2.28%, New York Composite cash index +0.33%, S&P 500 cash index +0.10%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index -0.62%.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the June 10 year treasury note was unchanged. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 61,944 contracts to their long positions and also added 59,641 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year treasury note by a ratio of 1.35:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.40:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.39:1.