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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, February 25 through Tuesday, March 3.

The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report on March 10.

Soybeans: On March 6, May soybeans generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the February 20 buy signal. May soybeans remain on intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, May soybeans lost 46.75 cents, July -44.25, August -42.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,733 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 184 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 17,660 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 4,472 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by a ratio of 1.28:1, which is fractionally below the previous week’s ratio of 1.29:1, but above the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.11:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, May soybean meal lost $14.70, July -14.00, August -13.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,753 contracts of their long positions and added 1,465 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,535 of their long positions and also liquidated 16,994 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.60:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.85:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.72:1.

Soybean oil: On March 2, May soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal. It appears the buy signal will likely be reversed this week.

For the week, May soybean oil lost 1.67 cents, July -1.65, August -1.58. The COT report revealed that managed money added 12,664 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,697 of their short positions. Commercial interests did the opposite by liquidating 16,199 contracts of their long positions and adding 13,523 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 2.18:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 1.59:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.74:1.

Corn:

For the week, May corn lost 7.25 cents, July -7.25, December -6.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 15,196 contracts of their long positions and added 13,289 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 22,495 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 28,650 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.41:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.57:1.

The current ratio of 1.20:1 is the lowest of the current bear market.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, May Chicago wheat lost 30.50 cents, July -30.25, December -28.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 15,742 contracts of their long positions and added 9,847 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,836 of their long positions and also liquidated 10,230 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 2.04:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 1.45:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.34:1.

The current ratio of 2.04:1 is the highest short ratio since the COT report of September 23, 2014 when managed money was short by ratio of 1.91:1.

During the past week, May, July and December 2015 Chicago wheat contracts made new contract lows of 4.80, 4.78 1/4 and 5.09 1/4 respectively.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, May Kansas City wheat lost 17.25 cents, July -18.50, December -18.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 879 contracts of their long positions and added 4,011 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,051 to their long positions and liquidated 2,676 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.05:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.21:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.43:1.

The current ratio of 1.05:1 is the lowest during the current slide in Kansas City wheat prices.

During the past week, May, July and December 2015 Kansas City wheat contracts made new contract lows of 5.14, 5.16 1/4, and 5.52 respectively.

Year to date, May soybean oil is the out performer with a loss of 3.31%, May soybean meal -3.87%, May soybeans -4.42%, May corn -4.87%, May Kansas City wheat -17.30%, May Chicago wheat -18.84%.

Cotton:

For the week, May cotton lost 1.96 cents, July -1.85, December -1.28. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,055 to their long positions and also added 56 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,922 of their long positions and added 4,863 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by ratio of 3.30:1, which is up somewhat from the previous week of 3.26:1, but up dramatically from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.21:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, May sugar lost 33 points, July -42, October -52. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 15,569 contracts of their long positions and added 44,037 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 20,937 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 60,801 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short by a ratio of 1.70:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 1.23:1 and a massive increase from the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.05:1.

The current ratio of 1.70:1 is the highest short ratio during the bear market of the past several months. 

During the past week, May, July, and October 2015 contracts made new contract lows of 13.18, 13.37, and 13.97 respectively.

Coffee:

For the week, May lost 60 points, July -50, September -40. The COT report revealed that managed money added 281 contracts to their long positions and added a massive 8,760 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,393 to their long positions and liquidated 4,067 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is now short coffee for the first time during the current bear market by a ratio of 1.06:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by 1.22:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.60:1.

The exodus of commercial interests from their short positions continued unabated in the most recent COT report while this category of market participant was adding to long positions. The current report shows that commercials are net short by 14,213 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.20:1. This is a dramatic reduction during the past couple of weeks. For example, the net short position of commercial interests on February 17 was 33,366 contracts, or a short ratio of 1.56:1. In other words, the net short position of commercial interests has been cut in half in just two COT reports. Only three months ago, commercial interests were net long by 64,429 contracts, or a short ratio of 2.51:1 on December 2, 2014.

Remarkably, managed money became net short for the first time for in the March 3 report, which coincided with the new low of 1.2880 made on March 3.The devastating collapse of the Brazilian real against the dollar has dramatically affected the coffee export picture, however, it appears the Brazilians are determined to keep ratcheting interest rates higher in an attempt to control inflation. Just last week the central bank raised interest rates again by a quarter of a percent. We don’t think the market can turn around anytime soon and has much more work to do on the downside before resuming a rally.

Cocoa:

For the week, May cocoa lost $71.00, July -68.00, September -61.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,056 contracts to their long positions and surprisingly added 5,899 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 485 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,204 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by ratio of 3.33:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 4.88:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 5.18:1.

The current ratio of 3.33:1 is the lowest since the December 9, 2014 COT report when managed money was long cocoa by a ratio of 3.18:1.

Year to date, May cotton is the out performer with a gain of 3.11%, May cocoa +1.83%, May sugar -9.92%, May coffee -17.37%.

Live cattle: On March 5, April and June live cattle and April feeder cattle generated a short-term buy signal. All remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, April live cattle gained 2.95 cents, June +3.25, August +2.87. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,138 of their long positions and added 589 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,495 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,956 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by ratio of 3.87:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.07:1, but matches the low ratio 3.87:1 made two weeks ago.

During the slide in prices beginning in November 2014, 3.87:1 has been the lowest ratio recorded from the COT reports, which means there is plenty new money to enter the market and power live cattle prices higher.

This past week, June cattle made its highest weekly close since the week of January 5.

Lean hogs:

For the week, April lean hogs lost 1.35 cents, June -2.82, August -1.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,077 of their long positions and added 4,598 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,199 to their long positions and liquidated 4,699 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.59:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 1.92:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.13:1.

The current ratio of 1.59:1 is the lowest recorded from the COT report since lean hogs prices began their slide in mid July 2014.

This is potentially very good news for the hog market because it shows that managed money is becoming significantly less bullish as prices approach the low end of the trading range for the past 30 days.Remarkably, managed money has been net long throughout the devastating collapse of hog prices. The fact they are just beginning to significantly reduce their long positions and add to short positions may be the first indication that hog prices are near a bottom.

We took look at the long-term chart, and found that every major low going back 25 years has been substantially higher than the previous low. For example, the 25 year low for hog prices on the continuation chart occurred during December 1998 when hogs made a low of 20.70 cents. The next major low occurred in September 2002 when hogs made a low of 29.90, or 9.20 cents above the December 1998 low.The third major low during the past 25 years occurred during August 2009 when hogs made a low of 43.05, or 13.15 cents above September 2002 low.

The low thus far in 2015 on the continuation chart occurred on February 11, 2015 when the February contract printed of 61.10. The April contract closed at 66.125 on March 6. If we take the difference between the major lows of December 1998 and September 2002 (9.20 cents); September 2002 and August 2009 (13.15 cents) and add these to the August 2009 low of 43.05, we project a possible low on the continuation chart of 52.25 (43.05+9.20) or 56.20 (43.05+13.15).

Another way of calculating a possible low would be to take the difference between 9.20 and 13.15 (3.95 cents) because each major low has been significantly higher than the previous low. If 3.95 cents is added to 13.15 (17.10), we project the low for hogs in 2015 of approximately 60.15 cents (43.05+17.10), or a little less than 1 cent below the February 11 print of 61.10.

In summary, potential bottoms in the hog market are 52.25, or 56.20. However, the more likely target is 60.15.

Year to date, June cattle is the out performer with a loss of 5.45%, April live cattle -5.53%, June lean hogs -12.56%, April lean hogs -20.24%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, April WTI crude oil lost 15 cents, May -67, June -89. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 17,693 contracts of their long positions and added 16,542 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 24,558 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 22,112 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio of 2.21:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.66:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 3.07:1.

The current ratio of 2.21:1 is now the lowest ratio of managed money longs we have recorded going back to September 2, 2014. On September 2, 2014, the April 2015 contract closed at $91.41 and the October 2014 contract closed at 92.88.

The current ratio takes out the previous low ratio of 2.65:1 made on February 3, 2015. Although, we did not search our records prior to September 2, 2014, it is highly likely the current ratio is the lowest of the entire bear market, which began in July 2014.

Heating oil:

For the week, April heating oil lost 10.47 cents, May -8.76, June -8.47. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6439 of their long positions and also liquidated 10,029 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 3617 to their long positions and also added 10,543 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.36:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.39:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.57:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, April gasoline lost 9.60 cents, May -9.02, June -9.03. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,911 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,949 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,310 to their long positions and also added 9,521 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 2.31:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.11:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.36:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, April natural gas gained 10.5 cents, May +10.1, June +9.4. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,885 of their long positions and added 6,565 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 238 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,698 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.38:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.30:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.27:1.

Year to date, April gasoline is the out performer with a gain of 9.06%, April heating oil +3.63%, April Brent crude oil +0.98%, April natural gas -1.25%, April ethanol -6.41%, April WTI crude oil -9.24%.

Copper:

For the week, May copper lost 8.25 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 217 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,113 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,043 of their long positions and added 4,289 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by a ratio of 1.03:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by a ratio of 1.008:1. Two weeks ago managed money was short by a ratio of 1.25:1.

Palladium:

For the week, June palladium lost $1.35. The COT report revealed that managed money added 146 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 296 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 235 contracts to their long positions and also added 823 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 8.50:1, which is up from the previous week of 7.50:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 6.96:1.

Platinum:

For the week, April platinum lost $26.80. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,335 to their long positions and also added 855 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 895 of their long positions and also liquidated 97 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.91:1, which is up from the previous week up 1.86:1, but down from the ratio of two weeks ago of 2.31:1.

Gold:

For the week, April gold lost $48.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 9,316 of their long positions and added 7,212 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 684 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,771 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 2.72:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 3.55:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 3.91:1.

Silver:

For the week, May silver lost 75.1 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,678 of their long positions and added 4,825 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,789 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,548 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 2.03:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 2.92:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 3.08:1.

Year to date, June palladium is the out performer with a gain of 2.40%, May silver +1.41%, April Gold -1.64%, April platinum -4.16%, May copper -7.60%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the March Canadian dollar lost 60 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,329 to their long positions and also added 4,210 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 4.28:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.80:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 4.64:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the March Australian dollar lost 86 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 4,844 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,350 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 4.90:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 3.54:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 3.34:1.

Swiss Franc:

For the week, the March Swiss franc lost 3.23 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,315 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,802 to their short positions.As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.41:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.60:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.92:1.

British Pound: On March 6, the March British pound generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the February 13 short-term buy signal. The March pound remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the March British pound lost 3.88 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 67 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,484 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the British pound by a ratio of 1.33:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.39:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.51:1.

Euro:

For the week, the March euro lost 3.36 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 698 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,145 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 6.29:1, which is down from the previous week of 6.61:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 6.59:1.

We took a look at the long-term euro chart and it appears that the euro found support in the third quarter of 2003 approximately 1 cent below the closing price on March 6. The August 2003 low was 1.0786 and the September 2003 low took out the August 2003 low by 27 pips (1.0759). The next area of support is the March 2003 low of 1.0470 and the April 2003 low of 1.0534.

We think it is likely the euro has already discounted much of quantitative easing by the ECB and the downward path may be a very rocky road for short sellers.

Yen:

For the week, the March yen lost 68 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 15,860 contracts to their long positions and also added 7,470 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 2.62:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 5.11:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 6.73:1.

US Dollar Index:

For the week, the March dollar index gained 2.28 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,658 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,942 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of only 1.12:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.26:1 and the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.28:1.

Year to date, the March dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 7.81%, March Swiss franc +0.81%, March Yen -0.79%, March British pound -3.35%,March Australian dollar -4.97%, March Canadian dollar -7.76%, March euro -10.42%.

S&P 500 (250 x): The March S&P 500 E mini will generate a short-term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 6 of 2072.00.

For the week, the March S&P 500 futures contract lost 32.00 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,852 of their long positions and added 2,360 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.49:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by ratio of 1.18:1. Two weeks ago, leverage funds were long the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 1.86:1.

Year to date for 2015, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 3.85%, S&P 400 cash index +2.35%, Russell 2000 cash index +1.06%, S&P 500 cash index +0.60%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +0.19%, New York Composite cash index +0.03%.

Year to date (March 6, 2014) for 2014, the NASDAQ 100 cash index was the out performer with a gain of 3.59%, Russell 2000 cash index +3.59%, S&P 400 cash index +3.28%, S&P 500 cash index +1.55%, New York Composite cash index +1.20%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index -0.93%.

10 Year Treasury Note: The June 10 year treasury note will generate an intermediate term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 6 of 127-190. The 10 year note generated a short-term sell signal on February 10.

For the week, the June 10 year treasury note lost 1.234 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 22,624 contracts of their long positions and added 78,243 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year treasury note by a ratio of 1.29:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.08:1 and a complete reversal from the ratio of two weeks ago when leverage funds were long the 10 year note by a ratio of 1.12:1.