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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, September 30 through Tuesday, October 6

Soybeans:

For the week, November soybeans advanced 11.50 cents, March +12.25, May +12.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,811 to their long positions and liquidated 5,041 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,109 of their long positions and added 10,609 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybeans by a ratio of 1.11:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.25:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.38:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, December soybean meal advanced $6.60, March +6.10, May +6.40. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,068 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,345 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 324 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,825 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.62:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.60:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.59:1.

Soybean oil: On October 5, December soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, December soybean meal advanced 28 points, March +27, May +28. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,360 to their long positions and liquidated 12,780 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,934 their long positions and added 16,868 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 1.19:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by 1.08:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short soybean oil by a ratio of 1.27:1.

We were impressed with the performance of soybeans after the release of the USDA report on Friday. Preliminary stats from the exchange (which will change in the final report) show that total open interest increased by 14,916 contracts in soybeans and +13,506 in soybean meal while the November contract gained 4.50 cents and the December soybean meal contract advanced $3.10. December soybean oil lost 2 points, and total open interest increased by 4,969 contracts.

We think the odds are increasing that prices will advance rather than fall to new contract lows. However, soybeans must make a daily low above our key pivot point, which for Friday was 8.86 (November) to generate a short-term buy signal. Soybeans must generate a short-term buy signal if the advance is to continue.

Corn:

For the week, December corn lost 6.50 cents, March -6.00, May -6.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 19,588 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 34,439 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,220 to their long positions and also added 47,515 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 1.83:1, which is a sharp jump from the previous week of 1.36:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.42:1.

Preliminary stats from the exchange show that total open interest declined by 14,830 on Friday’s sharp decline. It was positive that open interest did not increase in Fridays trading. For the downtrend to resume, the daily high must be below OIA’s pivot point for October 9 of 3.80 1/8.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, December Chicago wheat lost 4.00 cents, March -2.25, May -1.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,236 to their long positions and liquidated 9,891 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,711 of their long positions and added 6,601 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.14:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.42:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.56:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, December Kansas City wheat lost 0.25 cents, March-unchanged, May -0.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 348 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 892 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 490 of their long positions and added 2,421 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.18:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.19:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.22:1.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton advanced 1.47 cents, March +1.57, May +1.69. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,880 to their long positions and liquidated 5,779 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 928 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,154 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 1.99:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.56:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.55:1.

Sugar:

For the week, March sugar advanced 81 points, May +73, July +65. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 153 contracts of their long positions and liquidated a massive 47,689 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 15,090 of their long positions and added 41,718 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long sugar by ratio of 2.02:1, which is up sharply from the previous week of 1.20:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short sugar by a ratio of 1.12:1.

In last week’s COT report, managed money added 6,210 to their long positions and liquidated 32,761 contracts of their short positions. In summary, during the two recent COT reporting periods, managed money has liquidated a total of 80,450 contracts of short positions while only adding 6,057 to long positions.

As we pointed out in last week’s reports, short-sellers are powering the market higher, not new buying. This leaves sugar in a very vulnerable position because for prices to continue their advance, new buyers have to step up and be willing to pay prices that are at multi-month highs as the short population diminishes and therefore their buying power. On September 28, OIA announced that March sugar generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on October 1. Stand aside.

Coffee: On October 5, December coffee generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate buy signal on October 9.

For the week, December coffee gained 7.30 cents, March +7.55, May +7.45. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,654 their long positions and also liquidated 7,104 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,582 of their long positions and added 2,681 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.55:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.69:1, and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.84:1.

Cocoa:

For the week, December cocoa lost $46.00, March -41.00, May -43.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,720 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,866 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,473 to their long positions and liquidated 1,583 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 3.72:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.46:1 and a substantial increase from two weeks ago of 2.84:1.

Live cattle:

For the week, December live cattle advanced 5.95 cents, February +5.68, April +5.58. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,260 of their long positions and also liquidated 5,215 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,857 to their long positions and also added 8,838 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 1.22:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.12:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.09:1.

Remarkably, managed money has never assumed a net short position during the precipitous slide in cattle prices, and we do not think the market bottoms until managed money finally throws in the towel and becomes net short.

Lean hogs:

December lean hogs advanced 75 points, February +73, April +85. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,835 to their long positions and liquidated 1,345 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 760 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,303 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 2.46:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.21:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.01:1.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, November WTI crude oil advanced $4.09, December +4.14, January +4.18. The COT report revealed that managed money added 15,192 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 7,885 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 10,701 contracts to their long positions and also added 17,376 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 2.65:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.33:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.55:1.

Brent crude oil: On October 7, November and December Brent crude oil generated short-term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

Heating oil:

For the week, November heating oil gained 7.10 cents, December +7.72, January +8.35. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 637 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 7,327 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,235 of their long positions and added 6,384 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 2.16:1, which is down from last week’s record high short ratio of 2.45:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.21:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, November gasoline advanced 7.53 cents, December +8.92, January +9.38. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,248 to their long positions and liquidated 5,282 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 12,948 of their long positions and also liquidated 7,950 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.73:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.46:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.41:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, November natural gas advanced 5.1 cents, December +5.4, January +5.9. The COT report revealed that managed money added 123 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,792 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,832 of their long positions and added 794 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by ratio of 2.16:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.13:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.04:1.

The current short ratio of 2.16:1 is the highest recorded during 2015.

Copper:

For the week, December copper advanced 8.75 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,711 to their long positions and liquidated 5,172 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 257 contracts of their long positions and added 6,155 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.03:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.28:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.15:1.

Palladium:

For the week, December palladium advanced $10.55. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 88 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,040 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 45 contracts of their long positions and added 1,386 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 3.83:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 2.57:1 and more than double the ratio two weeks ago of 1.83:1.

Platinum: Although the pivot point will change somewhat on October 12, January platinum will generate a short-term buy signal if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for October 9 of $967.60. On Friday, the January contract closed at $981.40. If this occurs, it will be the first time in many months that all three precious metals are on short and/or intermediate term buy signals

For the week, January platinum advanced $71.90. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,236 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,314 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 696 contracts to their long positions and also added 341 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.41:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.38:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.49:1.

Gold: On October 7, December gold generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on October 8.

For the week, December gold advanced $19.30. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,781 to their long positions and liquidated 2,493 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 226 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,558 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.66:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.56:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.24:1.

Silver: On October 5, December silver generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on September 21.

For the week, December silver advanced 55.5 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,369 to their long positions and liquidated 12,141 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 294 contracts of their long positions and added 8,459 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 2.31:1, which is nearly double the previous week’s ratio of 1.29:1 and sharply higher than the ratio two weeks ago of 1.53:1.

From October 1 through October 9, December silver is the out performer with a gain of 9.33%, December palladium +8.62%, January platinum +7.78%, December gold +3.83%.

Year to date, December silver is the out performer with a gain of 0.55%, December gold -2.54%, December palladium -12.95%, January platinum -19.00%.

Canadian dollar: On October 5, December Canadian dollar generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the December Canadian dollar advanced 1.42 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 7,705 of their long positions and also liquidated 8,630 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 6.10:1, which is up sharply from the previous week of 3.72:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.67:1.

The surprise in this week’s COT report on the Canadian dollar is that nearly as many contracts long were liquidated as contracts short. As a result, the disproportionately large liquidation of long positions substantially increased the net short position. Keep in mind the COT report was tabulated on Tuesday, October 6 and  total open interest on October 7 increased by 530 contracts while it declined by 118 on October 8.

Total open interest increased on Friday according to the preliminary stats released by the exchange. In summary, there are massive numbers of professional money managers who remain short the Canadian dollar and this will likely create upward pressure on the currency, especially because the December dollar index is on short and intermediate sell signals. The Canadian dollar is one of the currencies that comprise the index.

Australian dollar: On October 7, the December Australian dollar generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the December Australian dollar advanced 3.00 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 813 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 9,435 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 2.67:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.09:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.07:1.

Swiss franc: The December Swiss franc is getting close to generating a short-term buy signal.

For the week, the December Swiss franc advanced 1.02 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 805 contracts of their long positions and added 395 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.95:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.74:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.65:1.

British pound: The December British pound is getting close to generating a short-term buy signal.

For the week, the December British pound advanced 1.49 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,254 their long positions and added 5,379 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 1.52:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.90:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.03:1.

Euro:

For the week, the December euro advanced 1.36 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,742 to their long positions and also added 8,216 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 2.58:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.62:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.66:1.

The net short position of leverage funds has not changed in many weeks despite the firm tone of the euro. The top will likely occur once short sellers have been blown out of their positions. As it stands, it appears likely that the euro will generate a short-term buy signal as early as Monday. This would reverse the September 22 short-term sell signal. Currently, the December euro remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

The December euro is in a bullish set up with the 20 day moving average of 1.1262 above the 50 day moving average of 1.1212. Additionally, the 50 day moving average is above the 150 day moving average of 1.1099 and above the 200 day moving average of 1.1206, having crossed above this last week. In summary, the moving averages are telling us the euro is likely to move higher at this juncture.

Yen:

For the week, the December yen lost 29 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,675 of their long positions and added 116 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 2.30:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.17:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.86:1.

Dollar index: On October 9, the December dollar index generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the December dollar index lost 1.08 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 471 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,400 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 2.31:1, up from the previous week of 2.00:1 and more than double the ratio two weeks ago of 1.05:1.

The December dollar index is in a bearish moving average set up with the 20 day moving average of 95.815 below the 50 day moving average of 96.082. Additionally, The 50 day moving average is below the 150 day average of 96.435 and the 50 day moving average is likely to cross below the 200 day moving average of 95.986 within the next week.

In our view, this confirms the likelihood that an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is off the table for the rest of 2015.

From October 1 through October 9, the December Australian dollar was the out performer with a gain of 4.58%, December Canadian dollar +3.15%, December euro +1.65%, December pound +1.46%, December Swiss franc +1.21%, December yen -0.34%, December dollar index -1.46%.

Year to date, the December dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 5.08%, December Swiss franc +2.66%, December yen -0.80%, December British pound -1.52%, December euro -6.46%, December Canadian dollar -9.66%, December Australian dollar -10.02%.

S&P 500 E-mini: On October 6, the December S&P 500 E-mini generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the December S&P 500 futures contract gained 64.30 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,086 to their long positions and liquidated 1,739 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 2.00:1, which is up sharply from the previous week of 1.18:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.13:1.

From October 1 through October 9, the Russell 2000 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 5.88%, New York Composite cash index +5.73%, S&P 400 cash index +5.37%, S&P 500 cash index +4.94%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +4.91%, NASDAQ 100 cash index +4.52%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 3.16%, S&P 400 cash index -0.69%, S&P 500 cash index -2.14%, Russell 2000 cash index -3.27%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index -4.14%, New York Composite cash index -4.41%.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the December 10 year treasury note lost 27-6 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 10,892 of their long positions and added 12,186 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by a ratio of 1.87:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.80:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.79:1.