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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, October 7 through Tuesday, October 13.

Soybeans: On October 14, November and January soybeans generated short-term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, November soybeans advanced 12.50 cents, January +11.50, March +11.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 15,710 to their long positions in liquidated 2,239 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 8,529 of their long positions and added 7,359 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by a ratio of 1.12:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by a ratio of 1.11:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short soybeans by ratio of 1.25:1.

Soybean meal: On October 14, December and January soybeans meal generated short-term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, December soybean meal advanced $4.20, January +3.50, March +3.20. The COT report revealed that managed money added 10,329 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,144 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,974 to their long positions and also added 17,558 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.85:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.62:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.60:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, December soybean oil gained 26 points, January +28, March +28. The COT report revealed that managed money added 129 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4726 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5742 to their long positions and also added 12,695 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 1.31:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.19:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was short soybean oil by ratio of 1.08:1.

Note: The increase in the ratio of longs in soybean oil was to primarily due to the liquidation of short positions, not the addition of new long positions. This was the opposite of soybeans and soybean meal. As we pointed out in previous reports, the failure of soybean oil to generate an intermediate term buy signal last week is a sign of internal weakness of the complex.

Corn: On October 15, December corn generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the short-term buy signal of September 14. December corn remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, December corn lost 6.00 cents, March -5.75, May -6.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 22,330 of their long positions and added 3441 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,474 their long positions and also liquidated 23,672 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money as long corn by a ratio of 1.63:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.83:1, (the recent high ratio), but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.36:1.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, December Chicago wheat lost 17.00 cents, March -16.75, May -16.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,733 of their long positions and added 2,515 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 448 to their long positions and liquidated 6,893 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.23:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.14:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.42:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, December Kansas City wheat lost 16.75 cents, March -16.25, May -15.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,628 to their long positions and liquidated 590 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,649 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,431 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.12:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.18:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.19:1.

Cotton: On October 14, December cotton generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, December cotton advanced 2.24 cents, March +2.17, May +1.94. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,091 to their long positions and liquidated 9,688 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,329 of their long positions and added 5,063 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 3.42:1, which is a large increase from the previous week of 1.99:1 and more than double the ratio two weeks ago of 1.56:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, March sugar lost 7 points, May -1, July +2. The COT report revealed that managed money added 20,931 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 11,364 their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 21,530 of their long positions and added 25,422 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long sugar by a ratio of 2.77:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 2.02:1 and more than 2 1/2 times the ratio two weeks ago of 1.20:1.

Friday’s COT report was the first in which more new long positions were added than short positions liquidated. In our view, this confirms that Johnny-come-lately’s are entering the market at the top end of the trading range. To sum up the past three COT reports: managed money has added 27,294 contracts to their long positions, but have liquidated a massive 91,814 contracts of their short positions.

The dominant action for the past three weeks has been short-sellers liquidating, not new buyers initiating positions. On September 28, March sugar generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on October 1.

From the October 11 Weekend Wrap on sugar:

“The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 153 contracts of their long positions and liquidated a massive 47,689 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 15,090 of their long positions and added 41,718 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long sugar by ratio of 2.02:1, which is up sharply from the previous week of 1.20:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short sugar by a ratio of 1.12:1.”

“In last week’s COT report, managed money added 6,210 to their long positions and liquidated 32,761 contracts of their short positions. In summary, during the two recent COT reporting periods, managed money has liquidated a total of 80,450 contracts of short positions while only adding 6,057 to long positions.”

Coffee:

For the week, December coffee lost 5.75 cents, March -5.70, May -5.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 594 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 9,935 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7868 of their long positions and added 1,132 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.24:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.55:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.69:1.

Despite the approximate 25 cent rally from contract lows, managed money as group did not buy into in the rally, and never became net long.

Cocoa:

For the week, December cocoa advanced $70.00, March +69.00, May +68.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 149 contracts of their long positions and added 1,484 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,906 to their long positions and liquidated 2,115 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 3.30:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.72:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.46:1.

Live cattle:

For the week, December live cattle advanced 2.10 cents, February +1.92, April +1.42. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,469 of their long positions and added 6,375 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,832 to their long positions and liquidated 8,943 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 1.02:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 1.22:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.12:1.

The current ratio of 1.02:1 is the lowest recorded for live cattle during 2015.

December live cattle is getting close to generating a short-term buy signal. The key pivot point for October 16 was 1.38725, which will change somewhat on Monday, but if December is able to make a low above Monday’s pivot point, a short-term buy signal will be generated.

From a seasonal point of view, live cattle prices tend to strengthen in the fourth quarter and if a short-term buy signal is generated, there could be an interesting trade on the long side. Another bonus: managed money currently is nearly as short as they are long, which means short sellers would provide additional fuel for a continued move higher.

On Friday, the December contract gained 2.875 cents and total open interest increased, which indicates that new buying was powering the market higher rather than short selling, which has been the case lately. Although the preliminary stats will change once the final report is released, if total open interest increased, this would give credence to the idea that the market has turned.

Lean hogs:

For the week, December lean hogs lost 45 points, February -50, April -1.02 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,299 to their long positions and liquidated 2,498 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 205 of their long positions and added 4,028 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 2.87:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.46:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.21:1.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, November WTI crude oil lost $2.37, December -2.42, January -2.32. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 8,381 of their long positions in liquidated 17,256 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 28,220 to their long positions and also added 28,718 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 3.08:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.65:1 and is a large increase from two weeks ago of 2.33:1.

Heating oil: On October 15, November and December heating oil generated short-term sell signals and remain on intermediate term sell signals

For the week, November heating oil lost 9.43 cents, December -9.25, January -8.89. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,252 of their long positions and added 970 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,228 of their long positions and also liquidated 14,727 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 2.64:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.16:1 and is an increase from the previous high short ratio of 2.45:1 made two weeks ago.

The current short ratio of 2.64:1 for heating oil is the highest recorded during 2015.

Gasoline:

For the week, November gasoline lost 8.87 cents, December -7.41, January -6.52. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,789 of their long positions and added 3,875 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,272 of their long positions and also liquidated 12,276 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.47:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.73:1, but up from the from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.46:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, November natural gas lost 7.2 cents, December -6.8, January -5.8. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,016 of their long positions and also liquidated 5,560 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,811 to their long positions and also added 12,158 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 2.16:1, which is the same as the previous week of 2.16:1, and up slightly from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.13:1.

The current short ratio of 2.16:1 for natural gas is the highest recorded during 2015.

Copper: On October 12, December NY copper generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, December copper lost 1.05 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,194 to their long positions and liquidated 6,125 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,230 of their long positions and added 5,241 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by a ratio of 1.25:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by ratio of 1.03:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short copper by ratio of 1.28:1.

Palladium:

For the week, December palladium lost $8.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 667 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,154 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 114 to their long positions and also added 468 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 5.11:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 3.83:1 and is more than double the ratio two weeks ago of 2.57:1.

Platinum: On October 12, January platinum generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, January platinum advanced $42.30. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,727 to their long positions and liquidated 5,531 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 928 of their long positions and added 2,727 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 2.01:1, which is a substantial increase from the previous week of 1.41:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.38:1.

Gold:

For the week, December gold advanced $27.20. The COT report revealed that managed money added 12,936 to their long positions and liquidated 18,439 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1661 of their long positions and added 11,432 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 2.51:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 1.66:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.56:1.

Silver:

For the week, December silver advanced 29.6 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,791 to their long positions and liquidated 7,030 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 794 contracts of their long positions and added 3,008 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 3.91:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 2.31:1 and approximately three times the ratio of two weeks ago of 1.29:1.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the December Canadian dollar advanced 21 pips. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 35 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 9,877 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 4.94:1, which is down from the previous week of 6.10:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 3.72:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the December Australian dollar lost 51 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,849 of their long positions and also liquidated 5,826 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 2.60:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.67:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.09:1.

Swiss franc: On October 12, the December Swiss franc generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on October 14.

For the week, the December Swiss franc advanced 1.02 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 1,458 of their long positions and also liquidated 3,093 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.91:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.95:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.74:1.

British pound: On October 15, the December British pound generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the December British pound advanced 1.20 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 8,043 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,467 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 1.34:1, down from the previous week of 1.52:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.90:1.

Euro: On October 12, the December euro generated a short-term buy signal, which reversed the September 22 short-term sell signal. The December euro remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the December euro advanced 9 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,077 to their long positions and liquidated 250 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 2.44:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.58:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.62:1.

Yen:

For the week, the December yen advanced 61 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 677 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,285 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 2.17:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.30:1 and exactly the same as the ratio two weeks ago of 2.17:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the December dollar index lost 30 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 5,355 to their long positions and liquidated 1736 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 3.93:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 2.31:1 and nearly double the ratio two weeks ago of 2.00:1.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the December S&P 500 futures contract advanced 18.10 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 482 of their long positions and also liquidated 119 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.96:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.00:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.18:1.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the December 10 year treasury note advanced 17-6 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 16,247 to their long positions and also added 14,834 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by a ratio of 1.83:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.87:1, but up slightly from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.80:1.