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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, October 14 through Tuesday, October 20.

Soybeans:

For the week, November soybeans lost 2.75 cents, January -6.00, March -7.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 9,762 of their long positions and also liquidated 11,969 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 27,488 to their long positions and also added 9,317 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by a ratio of 1.18:1, which is up somewhat from the previous week of 1.12:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was short soybeans by ratio of 1.11:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, December soybean meal lost $6.90, March -6.20, May -5.30. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2750 of their long positions and added 462 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,966 to their long positions and also added 6,778 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.75:1, down from the previous week of 1.85:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.62:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, December soybean oil lost 3 points, March -3, May -4. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,581 to their long positions and liquidated 1,549 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,067 of their long positions and added 482 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 1.46:1, up from the previous week of 1.31:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.19:1.

Corn:

For the week, December corn advanced 3.00 cents, March +1.00, May +0.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 18,932 of their long positions and added a massive 42,746 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 15,406 to their long positions and liquidated 23,528 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 1.16:1, down sharply from the previous week of 1.63:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.83:1.

Chicago wheat: On October 19, December Chicago wheat generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, December Chicago wheat lost 1.75 cents, March -2.75, May -3.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 9,898 of their long positions and added a massive 28,687 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 16,019 to their long positions and liquidated 17,432 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 2.00:1, up sharply from the previous week of 1.23:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.14:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, December Kansas City wheat lost 8.00 cents, March -7.75, May -7.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,901 to their long positions and also added 6,409 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,756 to their long positions and liquidated 3,693 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.22:1, up from the previous week of 1.12:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.18:1.

Commercial interests added to long positions and liquidated short positions in soybeans, corn, Chicago wheat, Kansas City wheat during the current COT period.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton lost 1.09 cents, March -1.10, May -93 points. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,978 to their long positions and liquidated 4,411 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 36 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,792 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 5.11:1, which is up sharply from the previous week of 3.42:1 and more than 2 1/2 times the ratio two weeks ago of 1.99:1.

Sugar:

For the week, March sugar advanced 1 point, May -4, July -6. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,954 to their long positions and also added 6,451 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,285 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,072 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long sugar by a ratio of 2.60:1, down from the previous week of 2.77:1, but up sharply from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.02:1.

Coffee: On December coffee generated an intermediate term sell signal on October 21 and a short-term sell signal on October 22.

For the week, December coffee lost 7.40 cents, March -7.40, May -7.15. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 238 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,148 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,298 of their long positions and added 425 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.21:1, down slightly from the previous week of 1.24:1 and a substantial decrease from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.55:1.

Cocoa:

For the week, December cocoa advanced $6.00, March +6.00, May +10.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,390 of their long positions and added 500 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,288 of their long positions and added 3,125 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 3.09:1, down from the previous week of 3.30:1 and a substantial decrease from the ratio two weeks ago of 3.72:1.

Live cattle: On October 19, December live cattle generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, December live cattle advanced 3.98 cents, February +3.75, April +3.28. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,076 of their long positions and also liquidated 4,654 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,199 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,628 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 1.06:1, up slightly from the previous week (the low ratio for 2015 of 1.02:1), but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.22:1.

The last day of COT tabulation occurred on October 20 and from October 16 through October 20 December live cattle advanced 6.625 cents, yet both commercial interests and manage money were liquidating positions according to the COT report. This is consistent with the open interest stats for those three days, which showed a cumulative open interest decline of 5,250 contracts.

Lean hogs: December lean hogs will likely generate a short-term sell signal on October 26. As a point of reference, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for October 23 of 64.950. This number will likely change somewhat on Monday, but it lets clients know the area where the December contract needs to trade in order to generate a short-term sell signal. The December contract closed at 63.600 on Friday. As usual, managed money is massively long at the top.

For the week, December lean hogs lost 3.22 cents, February -2.30, April -1.98. The COT report revealed that managed money added 353 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,288 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 252 contracts of their long positions and added 5,148 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 3.64:1, up from the previous week of 2.87:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.46:1.

WTI crude oil: On October 21, December and January WTI crude oil generated short-term sell signals, which reversed the September 3 short-term buy signals. December and January WTI remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, December WTI crude oil lost $3.12, January -3.03, February -2.94. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,574 of their long positions and added 18,975 to their short positions. Commercial interest liquidated 35,091 of their long positions and also liquidated 20,907 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 2.50:1, down from the previous week of 3.08:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.65:1.

Brent crude oil: On October 21 December and January Brent crude oil generated short-term sell signals, which reversed the October 7 short-term buy signals. December and January Brent crude oil remain on intermediate term sell signals.

Heating oil:

For the week, November heating oil lost 4.22 cents, December -4.98, January -5.29. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,847 to their long positions and also added 6,721 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 11,895 to their long positions and also added 14,538 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 2.48:1, down from the high short ratio for 2015 of 2.64:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.16:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, November gasoline lost 2.44 cents, December -3.86, January -4.82. The COT report revealed that managed money added 613 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,779 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,548 of their long positions and also liquidated 7,590 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.32:1, down from the previous week of 1.47:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.73:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, November natural gas lost 14.4 cents, December -15.7, January -16.7. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 664 of their long positions and added 2,027 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,059 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,938 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 2.18:1, up from the previous week of 2.16:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.16:1.

The current short ratio of 2.18:1 is the highest recorded during 2015. 

During the past week, November, December and January natural gas recorded new contract lows of 2.275, 2.483, and 2.623 respectively. The contract low made in the October contract this week is the lowest price for the front month of natural gas since June 2012 ($2.168). Going back to October 2010, the lowest print during the past five years occurred during April 2012 (1.902).

Copper:

For the week, December copper lost 5.35 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,074 their long positions and also liquidated 736 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 525 of their long positions and added 1,807 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by a ratio of 1.24:1, down fractionally from the previous week of 1.25:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was short copper by ratio of 1.03:1.

Palladium:

For the week, December palladium lost $5.55. The COT report revealed that managed money added 265 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 476 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 235 to their long positions and liquidated 159 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 6.20:1, up sharply from the previous week of 5.11:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 3.83:1.

Platinum: On October 19, January platinum generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on October 12.

For the week, January platinum lost $22.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 321 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,718 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 135 of their long positions and added 1,910 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 2.45:1, up from the previous week of 2.01:1 and a sharp increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.41:1.

Gold:

For the week, December gold lost $20.30. The COT report revealed that managed money added 27,849 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 11,282 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 12 contracts of their long positions and added 21,941 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 3.92:1, up sharply from the previous week of 2.51:1 and more than double the ratio two weeks ago of 1.66:1.

We took a look at gold’s performance based upon the very strong increase in the net long position held by managed money. From September 30 through October 20, which represents 3 COT periods, December gold advanced just $50.70 or +4.42%. During this time, the net long position by managed money went from 40,564 contracts in the September 29 report to a net long position of 119,344 in the October 20 report, or an increase of 78,780 contracts.

On the other hand, the net short position of commercial interests went from 62,090 contracts in the September 29 report to a net short position of 101,468 contracts in the October 20 report, or an increase of 39,378 in net short positions. It appears that managed money has gotten on the bullish bandwagon prematurely. The fact that managed money has massively added to long positions during a period of three weeks when gold moved slightly more than $50.00 is testament to hedge pressure and speculators who are not aggressively bidding prices higher.

One important negative is that gold has been unable to make a daily low above its 200 day moving average of $1176.80. Although, the December contract penetrated the 200 day moving average and closed above it, it has been unable to make a daily low above this key moving average. The 200 day moving average has been a barrier to past gold rallies. The closest the December contract came to making a daily low above the 200 day moving average occurred on October 16 when the low for the day was 1174.30. 

Another point of resistance is the 50 week moving average of $1179.20. For gold to make a sustained move higher, it must make a weekly low above this moving average. We continue to recommend a stand aside posture in gold.

Silver:

For the week, December silver lost 28.7 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,493 to their long positions and liquidated 1436 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 433 to their long positions and also added 2,815 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 4.68:1, up from the previous week of 3.91:1 and slightly more than double the ratio two weeks ago of 2.31:1.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the December Canadian dollar lost 1.60 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 4,625 to their long positions and liquidated 4,636 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 2.82:1, down sharply from the previous week of 4.94:1 and more than half the ratio two weeks ago of 6.10:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the December Australian dollar lost 64 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 956 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,400 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 2.60:1, which is exactly the same as the previous week of 2.60:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.67:1.

Swiss franc: On October 23 the December Swiss franc generated short and intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, the December Swiss franc lost 3.11 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,563 to their long positions and liquidated 1,822 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.36:1, down sharply from the previous week of 1.91:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.95:1.

British pound:

For the week, the December British pound lost 1.37 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 8,177 to their long positions and liquidated 5,254 their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 1.92:1, up sharply from the previous week of 1.34:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.52:1.

Euro: On October 23, the December euro generated short and intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, the December euro lost 3.74 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 415 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 11,903 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 2.18:1, down from the previous week of 2.44:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.58:1.

Yen: On October 23, the December yen generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the December yen lost 141 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 4,612 to their long positions and also added 1,033 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 1.89:1, down from the previous week of 2.17:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.30:1.

Dollar index: On October 23, the December dollar index generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the December dollar index advanced 2.66 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 9,321 to their long positions and also added 9,864 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 2.05:1, down sharply from the previous week of 3.93:1 and down just slightly from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.31:1.

S&P 500 E-mini: On October 23 the December S&P 500 E-mini generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on October 6.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the December S&P 500 futures contract gained 40.50 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 946 contracts to their long positions and also added 821 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.87:1, down from the previous week of 1.96:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.00:1.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the December treasury note lost 19-6 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 31,034 their long positions and also liquidated 83,840 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by a ratio of 1.77:1, down from the previous week of 1.83:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.87:1.