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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, September 2 through Tuesday, September 8.

Soybeans:

For the week, November soybeans gained 7.75 cents, January +7.75, March +8.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 937 contracts to their long positions and added 1,938 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,245 of their long positions and added 1,265 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybeans by a ratio of 1.06:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.04:1 and a complete reversal from two weeks ago when managed money was long by 1.35:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, October soybean meal gained $2.80, December +2.50, January +2.40. The COT report revealed that managed money added 448 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,760 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,791 to their long positions and also added 5,432 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 1.96:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.26:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.78:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, October soybean oil gained 12 points, December + 12, January +15. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,590 of their long positions and added 322 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,402 to their long positions and also added 7,567 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean oil by a ratio of 1.15:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.08:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.12:1.

Corn:

For the week, December corn advanced 24.00 cents, March +23.75, May +23.75. The COT report reveal that managed money added 1,236 to their long positions and also added 31,340 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 18,884 to their long positions and liquidated 17,123 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 1.28:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.54:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.50:1.

The current corn ratio of 1.28:1 is the lowest since the COT report tabulated on June 30, 2015 (1.19:1). This likely explains the poor open interest action on September 11 when the December contract advanced 12.75  cents on total volume of 446,760 contracts and total open interest declined by 881. We suspect that the majority of short covering, which was powering the market higher was due to speculators caught on the wrong side of the market after the release of the of the WASDE report.

Although, open interest stats are likely to change when the final report is published tomorrow morning, the December 2015 through March 2016 contracts lost a total of 10,751 of open interest, which means there were insufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in the three nearest delivery months.

Additionally, volume was a disappointment with total volume of 446,760 contracts, which compares to August 27 when the December contract gained 1.75 cents on volume of 425,787 contracts. On August 24, December corn advanced 3.25 cents on volume of 493,230 contracts. In summary, though Friday’s advance of 12.75 cents was the largest since August 10 (the day of the August WASDE report) when the December contract advanced of 17.25 cents on volume of 564,021 contracts and total open interest increased by 10,216, volume contracted dramatically compared to August 10 and total open interest declined on September 11 when it increased on August 10.

Volume is an expression of market participation, and compared to days in August when corn advanced by a much smaller amount on higher volume, the performance on September 11 leaves much to be desired from a volume stand point alone. The average daily volume for corn (all contracts) during August 2015 was 373,137 contracts. We expect the market to pullback, and the degree to which it corrects will tell us whether Friday’s performance was a  one time event or the beginning a trend higher into the October WASDE report.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, December Chicago wheat advanced 17.25  cents, March +17.25, May +16.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,591 of their long positions and added 13,430 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,839 to their long positions and liquidated 15,019 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a ratio of 1.91:1, which is a large jump from the previous week of 1.46:1 and nearly double the ratio two weeks ago of 1.09:1

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, December Kansas City wheat advanced 7.50 cents, March +7.00, May +7.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 811 contracts to their long positions and also added 485 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 392 to their long positions and liquidated 1,019 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.21:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.17:1.

Thus far in the third quarter December corn is the out performer with a loss of 10.31%, December soybean meal -10.45%, November soybeans -15.71%, December soybean oil -21.19%, December Chicago wheat -22.03%, Kansas City wheat -23.21%.

From September 1, 2015 through September 11, 2015, December corn is the out performer with a gain of 3.13%, December Chicago wheat +1.60%, December soybean meal -0.64% December Kansas City wheat -1.13%, November soybeans -1.49%, December soybean oil -4.96%.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton advanced 51 points, March +51, May +64. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,096 of their long positions and added 2,354 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,731 to their long positions in liquidated 2,296 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 2.84:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.37:1 and nearly half the ratio two weeks ago of 5.59:1.

Sugar: On September 11, October 2015 sugar generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, October sugar gained 39 points, March +24, May +16. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,660 of their long positions and also liquidated 37,092 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,366 to their long positions and also added 40,721 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.07:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.31:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.52:1.

Coffee:

For the week, December coffee lost 2.50 cents, March -2.60, May -2.60. The COT report revealed that managed money added 786 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,644 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,226 to their long positions and also added 1,903 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.76:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.68:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.51:1.

During the past week, December, March, May coffee recorded new contract lows of 1.1600, 1.1950 and 1.2180 respectively. 

Cocoa: On September 8, December cocoa generated short and intermediate term by signals.

For the week, December cocoa advanced $86.00, March +86.00, May +91.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,925 to their long positions and also added 1,956 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 892 of their long positions and added 2,557 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 2.89:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.00:1, but above the ratio two weeks ago of 2.74:1.

Remarkably, the ratio of managed money longs is at a very low level compared to the stats during the past several weeks even though cocoa has rallied sharply. For information on how to trade the cocoa market, subscribers to OIA Direct should call with their inquiries.

Live cattle:

For the week, October live cattle gained 13 ticks, December -40, February +7. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,010 of their long positions and added 795 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,067 to their long positions and liquidated 4,771 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 1.28:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.35:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.44:1.

The current ratio of long positions held by managed money of 1.28:1 in cattle is the lowest recorded during 2015.

Lean hogs:

For the week, October lean hogs lost 1.83 cents, December -70 points, February -1.15. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,428 to their long positions in liquidated 844 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 158 of their long positions and added 3,361 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a ratio of 1.74:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.64:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.69:1.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, October WTI crude oil lost $1.42, November -1.47, December -1.43. The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,921 to their long positions and liquidated 11,969 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 19,796 to their long positions and also added 22,539 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 2.01:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.78:1 and is a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.57:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, October heating oil lost 4.60 cents, November -4.44, December -4.17. The COT report revealed that managed money added 538 to their long positions and liquidated 2,770 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 10,372 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,534 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by a ratio of 1.96:1, which is down from the record high short ratio of 2.12:1 made the previous week, but up slightly from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.94:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, October gasoline lost 4.83 cents, November -3.78, December -3.36. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,743 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,359 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 295 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,963 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.45:1, which is slightly above the previous week’s ratio of 1.44:1, but down slightly from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.46:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, October natural gas advanced 3.8 cents, November +2.6, December +1.6. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,996 of their long positions and also liquidated 10,830 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,529 to their long positions and also added 8,454 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.75:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.77:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.83:1.

Copper: On September 9, December copper generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate-term sell signal.

For the week, December copper advanced 14.15 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,009 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 7,137 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,750 of their long positions and added 4,994 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.12:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.46:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.53:1.

Palladium:

For the week, December palladium advanced $13.85. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 512 contracts of their long positions and added 232 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 356 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 336 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 1.64:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.73:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.60:1.

Platinum:

For the week, October platinum lost $27.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 149 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,023 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 852 to their long positions and also added 975 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 1.63:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.54:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.39:1.

Gold: On September 10, December gold generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the August 20 short-term buy signal. December gold remains on an intermediate-term sell signal.

For the week, December gold lost $18.10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 43 contracts to their long positions and also added 13,815 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,569 to their long positions and liquidated 2,617 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.31:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.56:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.52:1.

Silver:

For the week, December silver lost 4.4 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,498 to their long positions and liquidated 1,087 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,849 to their long positions and also added 2,285 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 1.23:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.12:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.002:1.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the December Canadian dollar lost 4 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 977 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 7,864 other short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 4.11:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.92:1 and a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 5.44:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the December Australian dollar advanced 1.59 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,166 to their long positions and liquidated 3,722 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 5.10:1, which is down from the previous week of 5.96:1 and is a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 6.94:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the December Swiss franc advanced 40 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 191 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,328 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 2.31:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.65:1 and the ratio two weeks ago a 3.90:1.

British pound:

For the week, the December British pound advanced 2.42 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 14,569 contracts of their long positions and added 7,718 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the British pound by a ratio of 1.36:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 2.15:1 and nearly half the ratio two weeks ago of 2.68:1.

Euro:

For the week, the December euro advanced 1.85 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 1,498 to their long positions and also added 11,176 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio of 2.03:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.86:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.77:1.

Yen:

For the week, the December yen lost 115 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 4,374 to their long positions and liquidated 18,200 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the yen by a ratio of 1.69:1, which is a sharp reduction from the previous week of 2.40:1 and dramatic reduction from the ratio two weeks ago a 3.95:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the December dollar index lost 1.15 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 3,973 to their long positions and also added 379 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by ratio of 3.43:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.14:1 and substantially above the ratio two weeks ago of 2.39:1.

Though leverage funds are heavily long the dollar index, the fact remains that as of the close of trading on Friday (95.37), the December contract is 7.08 points from the contract high (102.45) and 5.80 points from the contract low (89.57). This week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve may turn the dollar’s fortune around if a rate hike is announced. For more information on how to  trade the upcoming Federal Reserve announcement, subscribers to OIA Direct should call with their inquiries.

Thus far in the third quarter, the December euro is the out performer with a gain of 1.63%, December yen +1.47%, December dollar index + 0.38%, December British pound -1.90%, December Swiss franc -3.74%, December Canadian dollar -5.62%, December Australian dollar -7.83%.

From September 1, 2015 through September 11, 2015, the December euro is the out performer with a gain of 1.08%, December yen +0.55%, December British pound +0.51%, December Swiss franc -0.17%, December Australian dollar -0.49%, December Canadian dollar -0.78%, December dollar index -0.80%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the September S&P 500 futures contract gained 38.50 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 994 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,601 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 1.06:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by 1.12:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.005:1.

10 Year Treasury Note:

For the week, the December 10 year treasury note lost 7 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 26,954 contracts of their long positions and added 6,174 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year treasury note by ratio of 2.08:1, which is an increase from the previous week of 1.92:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.01:1.

The current short ratio of 2.08:1 is the highest recorded since the 10 year note generated a short term buy signal on July 6.