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Soybeans:

For the week, August soybeans lost 19.00 cents, November +10.25, January 2015 +9.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,114 contracts of their long positions and added 4,397 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 21,518 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,947 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybeans by ratio of 1.47:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.58:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.76:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, August soybean meal lost $7.50, December +6.80, January 2015 +5.30. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,377 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 614 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,078 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,752 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybean meal by ratio of 2.13:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 2.19:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.57:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, August soybean oil lost 20 points, December -24, January 2015 -23. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,129 contracts of their long positions and added 4,494 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,508 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,415 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybean oil by ratio of 1.02:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.15:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.29:1.

Corn:

For the week, September corn lost 7.00 cents, December -6.25, March 2015 -5.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,591 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 432 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 919 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 16,353 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by ratio of 1.69:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.73:1 but up slightly from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.66:1.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, September Chicago wheat gained 6.25 cents, December +8.50, March 2015 +8.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,101 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 857 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,822 contracts to their long positions and also added 7,564 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by ratio 1.60:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.57:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.55:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, September Kansas City wheat lost 2.50 cents, December -1.00, March 2015 -1.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 34 contracts of their long positions and added 3,665 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,273 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,746 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 1.60:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.89:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago when managed money was long KC wheat by ratio of 2.29:1.

Note that the ratio in Kansas City wheat versus Chicago wheat is the complete reverse.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, August soybean oil is the out performer with a loss of 6.11%, November soybeans -6.22%, September Chicago wheat – 7.84%, September Kansas City wheat – 9.50%, September corn -11.34%, August soybeans -11.51%, August soybean meal -11.70%.

Year to date, August soybean meal is the out performer with a loss of 2.36%, September Kansas City wheat -3.39%, November soybeans -4.38%, August soybeans -4.68%, August soybean oil -8.46%, September Chicago wheat -15.04%, September corn -16.29%.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton lost 38 points, March 2015 -65 May 2015 -66. The COT report revealed that managed money added 236 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,649 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,337 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,803 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long cotton by ratio of 1.47:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.61:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.90:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, October sugar lost 10 points, March 2015 -52, May 2015 -57. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 8,720 contracts of their long positions and added 29,260 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,225 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 46,549 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long sugar by ratio of 1.59:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.23: 1 and a half of what was 2 weeks ago when managed money was long sugar by ratio of 3.03:1.

Coffee:

For the week, September coffee advanced 11.00 cents, December +11.10, March 2015 +11.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,803 contracts of their long positions and added 2,970 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,357 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 824 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by a ratio of 4.18:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 6.08:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 5.95:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of March 4, 2014 when managed money was long coffee by ratio of 3.62:1. The trading range encompassed by the March 4 report (February 26-March 4) was from $1.7490 – 2.0150. The trading range during the current report: 1.5925 – 1.7490.

We think coffee may be a terrific trade in calendar year 2014, and the continuing decline of speculative longs is positive for the market. Preferably, we want to see coffee build a base from which a rally can occur. The current ratio indicates that the debilitating decline has taken its toll on speculative longs. On April 23, September coffee topped out at $2.2060, and closed on Friday at 1.7240, after making a new low for the move at 1.5925, which is the lowest print since February 19 (1.5665). In short, the market has collapsed 61.35 cents from high to low and coffee is undergoing a liquidation cycle that is seen commonly in commodities. Despite trading at multi-month lows, open interest action relative to price advances and declines have been very positive.For example, during the past several days, when coffee prices advanced, open interest increased and when they declined, open interest decreased as well.

For September coffee to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of 1.7520. Once this occurs, a pullback of 1-3 days is likely. September coffee should run into resistance at OIA’s pivot points of 1.8565 and 1.8965.

July and September coffee generated a short-term sell signal on May 12 and an intermediate term sell signal on June 3. During this time, we have been advising a stand aside posture and continue to do so until coffee generates a short-term buy signal.

Cocoa:

For the week, September cocoa lost $8.00, December -13.00, March 2015 -13.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 913 contracts of their long positions and added 1,298 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,168 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 4,527 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by ratio of 3.84:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.09:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.15:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of May 20, 2014 when managed money was long cocoa by ratio of 3.40:1.The trading range encompassed by the May 20 report was from $2886 – 2983. The trading range during the current report: $3055 – 3129.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, September cocoa is the out performer with a loss of 1.44%, September coffee -1.54%, October sugar -5.77%, December cotton -7.85%.

Year to date, September coffee is the out performer with a gain of 47.16%, September cocoa +12.94%, October sugar -0.47%, December cotton -13.63%.

Live cattle:

For the week, August cattle gained 2.50 cents, October +2.67, December + 1.55. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,404 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,923 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,218 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 288 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by ratio of 11.21:1, which is a sizable jump from the previous week of 8.71:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 8.63:1.

Last week’s ratio was the lowest since January 21, 2014 when managed money was long live cattle by ratio of 8.88:1. 

Lean hogs:

For the week, August lean hogs lost 1.60 cents, October -25 points, December -75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 377 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,918 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,681 contracts of their long positions and added 207 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long hogs by ratio of 6.16:1, which is down from the previous week of 8.46:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 9.10:1.

The most recent previous low ratio occurred on June 10 when the COT report revealed that managed money was long hogs by ratio of 6.47:1. The trading range during the June 10 report is approximately the same as the most recent report.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, December lean hogs is the out performer with a gain of 5.07%, August cattle +0.75%, October cattle +0.55%, December cattle +0.32%, October hogs -0.31%, August hogs -4.33%.

Year to date, October hogs is the out performer with a gain of 35.58%, August hogs + 30.90%, December hogs +30.31%, August cattle +18.53%, October cattle +17.72%, December cattle +17.24%.

WTI crude oil: On July 18, September WTI crude oil generated an intermediate term buy signal, but remains on a short-term sell signal.

For the week, August WTI crude oil advanced $2.30, September +1.65, October +1.30. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 29,263 contracts of their long positions and added 2,104 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 20,639 contracts to their long positions and also added 286 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio of 7.45:1, which is down from the previous week of 8.61:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 9.33:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the April 1 COT report when managed money was long by ratio of 7.51:1.The trading range encompassed by the April 1 report was from $95.98 – 98.32. The trading range encompassed by the latest report: $98.60 – 102.90.

The WTI market has been giving  mixed signals. For example, price and open interest action on July 16 and July 17 was decidedly bearish. During those 2 days, August WTI crude oil advanced $3.23 and total open interest declined by 37,419 contracts. This is very negative open interest action on the price advance. Adding to this bearish action was the generation of sell signals in heating oil, gasoline and Brent crude oil.

August and September heating oil generated a short and intermediate term sell signal on July 3 while August and September gasoline generated a short-term sell signal on July 7 and an intermediate term sell signal on July 11. Brent crude oil generated a short-term sell signal on July 3 and an intermediate term sell signal on July 11. Neither heating oil, gasoline or Brent crude oil are close to reversing their sell signals. Collectively, they should act as a drag on WTI prices.

On the other hand, September WTI generated an intermediate term buy signal on July 18. Additionally, the spread action has been very favorable with the September-December 2014 spread closing at $2.89, which is the highest close since June 23 ($3.00 premium to September).On June 23, the September contract closed at $105.42.

On July 3, August and September WTI generated a short-term sell signal and on July 11 generated an intermediate term sell signal. The short-term sell signal has not reversed and for this to occur September WTI must trade above 2 of OIA’s key pivot points: $102.34 and 103.82.The real battle for September crude will be to break above the pivot point range. If it is unable to accomplish this and open interest continues to act bearishly, we think the market will turn lower once again and the intermediate term buy signal generated on July 18 will be reversed. Stand aside.

Heating oil:

For the week, August heating oil lost 1.57 cents, September -1.60, October -1.38. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,847 contracts of their long positions and added 8,934 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,327 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,952 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long heating oil by a ratio of 1.41:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 2.54:1 and collapsed from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.14:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, August gasoline lost 4.82 cents, September -4.61, October -4.02. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 18,498 contracts of their long positions and added 2,834 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 586 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 16,119 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio of 2.52:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 3.51:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.70:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, August natural gas lost 19.5 cents, September -18.1, October -18.2. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,886 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 8,382 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,294 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 4,396 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long natural gas by ratio of 1.15:1, which is about the same as the previous week of 1.14:1 but below the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.23:1.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, September ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 0.45%, September WTI crude oil -2.82%, September heating oil -4.12%, September Brent crude oil -4.42%, September gasoline -5.54%, September natural gas -11.06%.

Year to date, September ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 17.59%, September WTI crude oil +7.47%, September gasoline + 1.04%, September Brent crude oil -0.61%, September natural gas -4.58%, September heating oil -4.79%.

Copper:

For the week, September copper lost 8.45 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 10,351 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 275 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 917 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,872 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by ratio of 3.79:1, which is a jump from the previous week of 3.15:1 and a dramatic increase from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.25:1.

In last weekend’s report, we wrote about our increasing uneasiness about the lopsided position of managed money. Our trepidation has increased since then and now we have a number of signals to indicate it is time to head for the exit. Last week we went back to the December 31, 2013 report to find the highest long to short ratio of managed money during the past several months. With the new stratospheric net long position of managed money (48,903 contracts) or a long to short ratio of 3.79:1, we examined previous periods when prices were considerably higher than today, in order to put the huge long position of managed money in perspective.

During the COT report of January 29, 2013 the long to short ratio of manage money was 1.70:1 or a net long position of 14,448 contracts.During the period encompassed by the report, March 2013 copper traded in a range of 3.6335 – 3.6940, or approximately 40 cents above the range of the current report (3.2235- 3.2945).

During the COT report of September 18, 2012, the long to short ratio of managed money stood at 1.69:1, or a net long position of 17,164 contracts. During the period encompassed by the report, copper traded in a range of 3.6875 – 3.8520, or 45-55 cents above the range in the COT current report.

As mentioned earlier, the net long position of manage money currently stands at 48,903 contracts, which is dramatically above the net long 14,448 contracts of the January 29, 2013 report and the net long position of 17,164 contracts of the September 18, 2012 report.

The lopsided position of manage money is important because it will add fuel for the downside move which we think is imminent.

On July 3, September copper made its high close of $3.2795, and since then has closed lower on 6 occasions and higher on 4. Since we only use final open interest stats for our reports, we will not review the action of Friday. However when examining price and open interest action from July 7 through July 17, the picture gets increasingly bearish. For example, from July 7 through July 17, total open interest has increased by a massive 25,836 contracts, which means that new short sellers are in command and driving prices lower.This is extremely bearish open interest action relative to the price decline. Also, it indicates that the massive long position held by managed money is not being liquidated as prices move lower.Eventually, as prices move lower, longs will be forced to sell, which in turn will drive prices still lower.

OIA protocols indicate that a short-term sell signal is imminent, and for this to change, September copper must make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point of 3.2394. Unless this occurs, the market will trade sideways to lower. On June 23, OIA announced that September copper generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.If currently long, we recommend lightening up on positions and, having sell stops in place (actual or mental).

From the July 13 Weekend Wrap:

“When copper was trading at approximately the same level back in early March 2014, managed money was short by a ratio of 1.32:1. On March 4, March copper closed at 3.2615 and on July 8, 2014 the September contract closed at 3.2430. However, in the COT report of December 31, 2013, managed money was long copper by a ratio of 2.76:1, and the nearby copper contract closed at $3.4415. In short, managed money is far more bullish today than when copper prices were at the approximate same level in early March. Additionally, they are more bullish than in late December when copper prices were trading approximately 15 cents higher. In our view, this is a sign to be cautious if trading copper on the long side. Additionally, copper remains in a bearish moving average set up with the 50 day moving average at 3.1269 and the 200 day average at 3.1870.”

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium advanced $6.20. The COT report revealed that managed money added 573 contracts to their long positions and also added 239 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 74 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 351 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio of 5.58:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 5.75:1 and about the same as 2 weeks ago of 5.54:1.

Platinum:

For the week, October platinum lost $23.90. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 155 contracts of their long positions and added 1,166 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,151 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 156 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by ratio of 12.93:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 19.69:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 19.11:1.

Gold:

For the week, August gold lost $28.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 5,459 contracts of their long positions and added 6,230 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,167 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,441 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by ratio of 5.49:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 7.39:1 (which has been the recent high ratio thus far) and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 6.41:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT report of June 24 when managed money was long gold by ratio of 3.88:1.The trading range encompassed by the June 24 report for the August contract was from $1266.50 – 1326.60.The trading range encompassed by the latest report is from 1292.60 – 1346.80.

From June 20 (which was the day after the major move in gold + 41.40) through July 17, total open interest increased 21,879 contracts, however, August gold advanced only 30 cents in this time frame. This is bearish open interest action relative to the unchanged price from June 20 through July 17.In other words, the substantial increase of open interest was not moving prices higher. We think this spells potential trouble for gold and is vulnerable to further downside because speculators who acquired gold at higher prices will be forced to liquidate as prices move lower.In order for August gold to continue its advance, the daily low must be above OIA’s key pivot point of 1327.00. August gold remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Silver:

For the week, September silver lost 57.5 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 178 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,170 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 162 contracts of their long positions and added 2,169 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 5.88:1, which is up significantly from the previous week of 4.79:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.78:1.

The increase in this week’s ratio was due to the hefty decline in short positions.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, September palladium is the out performer with a gain of 4.58%, October platinum +0.27%, September copper -0.53%, September silver -0.90%, August gold -1.30%.

Year to date, September palladium is the out performer with a gain of 22.37%, August gold + 8.85%, October platinum +8.31%, September silver +7.34%, September copper -5.30%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the September Canadian dollar advanced 4 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 1,565 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,960 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the Canadian dollar by ratio of 1.04:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when leveraged funds were short by ratio of 1.07:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago when they were short by 1.38:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the September Australian dollar gained 15 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 4,147 contracts to their long positions and also added 861 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds remain long the Australian dollar by ratio of 2.69:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.62:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.37:1.

Swiss franc: On July 16, the September Swiss franc generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the September Swiss franc lost 74 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 252 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 925 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio of 1.64:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.59:1, but down slightly from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.72:1. The

British pound:

For the week, the September British pound lost 22 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 724 contracts of their long positions and added 2,149 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the British pound by ratio of 3.16:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.31:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.51:1.

Euro: On July 16, the September euro generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the September euro lost 84 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 13,039 contracts to their long positions and also added 11,413 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 1.93:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.28:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.12:1.

Yen:

For the week, the September yen lost 3 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 2,453 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 6,243 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by ratio of 5.01:1, which is up from the previous week of 4.63:1 and substantially above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.71:1.

Dollar index: On July 16, the September dollar index generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the September dollar index gained 37 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 1,098 contracts of their long positions and added 168 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 1.45:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.30:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.23:1.

The 50 day moving average of the cash dollar index has crossed above the 200 day average and this is likely to occur in the September contract during the next couple of weeks. Dollar strength is negative for commodities in general and precious metals in particular

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, the September dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 0.99%, September yen -0.05%, September British pound -0.053%, September Australian dollar -0.16%, September Canadian dollar -0.58%, September euro -1.24%, September Swiss franc -1.29%.

Year to date, the September Australian dollar is the out performer with a gain of 6.65%, September yen +3.74%, September British pound +3.36%, September dollar index +0.11%, September Canadian dollar -0.49%, September Swiss franc -1.21%, September euro -1.91%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the September S&P 500 futures contract gained 9.20 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 5,283 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 314 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds remain short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 2.16:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week when they were short by 1.09:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.18:1.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 2.35%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +1.63%, S&P 500 cash index +0.92%, New York Composite cash index +0.06%, S&P 400 cash index -1.41%, Russell 2000 cash index -3.47%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 9.69%, S&P 500 cash index +7.03%, New York Composite cash index + 5.63%,S&P 400 cash index +5.23%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +3.16%, Russell 2000 cash index -1.03%.

10 year Treasury Note: It appears the September 10 year treasury note is on the verge of generating a short-term buy signal

On June 10, the September 10 year treasury note generated a short-term sell signal, but never generated an intermediate term sell signal. Since then, the market has been trading in a sideways pattern and only recently began to show new signs of life. The September contract made a low at 123-26 on July 3, which is an area of support going back to mid May. Beginning on July 7, the market began to rally, and on July 18 registered its highest print since May 29 (126-000).Total open interest during this period was positive having gained 61,604 contracts from July 7 through July 17. For the September note to generate a short-term buy signal, the daily low must be above OIA’s key pivot point of 125-09.Once this occurs, a pullback is likely lasting from 1-3 days. This will be the opportunity to initiate bullish positions.