Due to July 4th, this is holiday shortened weekend report.

We were surprised by the relatively high long to short ratios in the grains and this tells us there is more carnage to come.

Soybeans: On July 1, August and November soybeans generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on June 6.

For the week, July soybeans lost 44.25 cents, August -78.25, November -94.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 600 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,718 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,843 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 22,598 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio of 1.76:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.90:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.09:1.

Soybean meal: On July 1, August soybean meal generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on June 11.

For the week, July soybean meal lost $22.80, August -29.50, December -32.80.The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,733 contracts of their long positions and added 5,662 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,538 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 11,295 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybean meal by a ratio of 2.57:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.26:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.09:1.

Soybean oil: On July 1, August soybean oil generated a short-term sell signal, which reverses the short-term buy signal generated on June 23. August soybean oil remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, July soybean oil lost 1.42 cents, August -1.46, December -1.62.The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,316 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 6,920 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,188 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,903 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by ratio of 1.29:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.08:1 and dramatically above the ratio of 2 weeks ago when managed money was short by ratio of 1.19:1. The current ratio in soybean oil is a real  puzzle. It has been the worst performer of the soybean complex.

Corn:

For the week, July corn lost 26.00 cents, September -32.75, December -32.00.The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 8,112 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,592 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 22,716 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 35,610 contracts of their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money remains long corn by ratio of 1.66:1, which is down only slightly from the previous week of 1.68:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.93:1.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, July Chicago wheat lost 17.25 cents, September -14.25, December -9.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,079 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,777 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 8,501 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 7,960 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by ratio of 1.55:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.57:1 but above the ratio of 2 weeks ago when managed money was short by 1.21:1.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, July Kansas City wheat lost 29.00 cents, September -34.50, December -29.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 451 contracts of their long positions and added 1,757 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,026 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 509 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 2.29:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.57:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.82:1.

During the 2nd quarter, August soybean meal was the out performer with a loss of 1.35%, August soybeans -2.30%, November soybeans -2.53%, August soybean oil -3.83%, September Kansas City wheat -9.4%, September corn -16.58%, September Chicago wheat -18.52%.

Year to date, August soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 7.24%, August soybeans +5.29%, September Kansas City wheat +4.76%, November soybeans -0.13%, August soybean oil -3.20%, September wheat -7.50%, September corn -7.67%.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton lost 2.79 cents, March 2015 -3.18, May 2015-3.18. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,418 contracts of their long positions and added 5,970 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 997 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 10,364 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by ratio of 1.90:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 2.67:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.59:1.

Sugar #11: On July 1, October sugar generated a short and intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, October sugar lost 51 points, March 2015 -28, May 2015-20. The COT report revealed that managed money added 9,312 contracts to their long positions and also added 6,524 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 18,013 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 24,670 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long sugar by ratio of 3.03:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.19:1, but up dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.64:1.

Coffee:

For the week, September coffee lost 75 points, December -60, March 2015 -55. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 278 contracts of their long positions and added 664 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,256 contracts to their long positions and also added 436 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by ratio of 5.95:1, which is down from the previous week of 6.54:1 and the low the previous low ratio of 6.01:1. The current ratio is the lowest since the beginning of the bull market in late January 2014.

Cocoa:

For the week, September cocoa lost $29.00, December -31.00, March 2015 – 31.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 784 contracts of their long positions and added 583 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,246 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,540 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by ratio of 4.15:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 4.29:1, but slightly above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.09:1.

During the 2nd quarter, September cocoa was the out performer with a gain of 5.04%, October sugar -2.91%, September coffee -3.82%, December cotton -8.11%.

Year to date, September coffee is the out performer with a gain of 46.91%, September cocoa +13.56%, October sugar +4.46%, December cotton -8.10%.

Live cattle:

For the week, August cattle advanced 3.88 cents, October +2.55, December +1.43. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 8,115 contracts of their long positions and added 230 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,891 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,348 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by ratio of 8.63:1, which is down from the previous week of 9.35:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 12.51:1. The current ratio is the lowest that we’ve seen since January 28, 2014 (9.28:1).

Lean hogs:

For the week, August lean hogs advanced 1.78 cents, October +5.85, December +7.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 758 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,014 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 46 contracts of their long positions and added 2,733 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long hogs by ratio of 9.10:1, which is up from the previous week of 8.08:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 6.63:1.

During the 2nd quarter, August live cattle was the out performer with a gain 11.85%, December cattle +9.84%, December hogs +9.31%, August hogs +7.49%.

Year to date, August hogs is the out performer with a gain of 35.77%, December hogs +29.06%, August cattle +21.42%, December hogs +18.32%.

WTI crude oil: On July 3, August WTI crude oil generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, August WTI crude oil lost $1.68, September -1.53, October -1.40. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 12,096 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 503 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 15,502 contracts to their long positions and also added 6,065 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio of 9.33:1, which is down from the previous week of 9.53:1 and the ratio of 10.55:1 made 2 weeks ago. The current ratio is the lowest since April 1 (7.51:1).

Brent crude oil: On July 3, August Brent crude oil generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

Heating oil: On July 3, August heating oil generated a short and intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, August heating oil lost 7.51 cents, September -6.78, October -6.48. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 736 contracts of their long positions and added 253 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 7,526 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 8,055 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long heating oil by ratio of 4.14:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 4.29:1, but up substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.47:1. The current ratio is the highest since February 25, 2014 (4.49:1).

Gasoline:

For the week, August gasoline lost 5.44 cents, September -5.03, October -4.55. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,696 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,263 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,434 contracts of their long positions and added 431 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio of 3.70:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.95:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.75:1. As we pointed out in last weekend’s report, it is rare to see gasoline with a lower long to short ratio than heating oil, especially during the summer driving season. Additionally, it is out performing heating oil. 

Natural gas:

For the week, August natural gas lost 3 ticks, September +6 ticks, October +7 ticks. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 18,339 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 7,987 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,860 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,070 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long natural gas by ratio of 1.23:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.27:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.35:1. The current ratio is slightly below the previous low of 1.24:1 made on December 10, 2013.

During the 2nd quarter, August gasoline was the out performer with a gain of 6.85%, August WTI crude oil +6.61%, August Brent crude oil +5.05%, August heating oil +1.75%, August natural gas +0.61%, August ethanol -5.18%.

Year to date, August ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 23.55%, August WTI crude oil +8.61%, August gasoline +5.81%, August natural gas +5.22%, August Brent crude oil +2.06%, August heating oil -2.71%.

Copper:

For the week, September copper gained 11.15 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 9,905 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 572 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,175 contracts of their long positions and added 5,677 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by ratio of 2.25:1, which is dramatically above the previous week of 1.70:1 and a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when managed money was short copper by ratio of 1.01:1.

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium gained $19.05. The COT report revealed that managed money added 443 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 70 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 181 contracts of their long positions and added 555 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio of 5.54:1, which is slightly above the previous week of 5.36:1 and significantly above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.60:1.

Platinum:

For the week, October platinum gained $27.40. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,380 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 246 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 637 contracts of their long positions and added 1,110 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by ratio of 19.11:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 15.00:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 10.82:1.

It continues to amaze us that managed money piles into platinum when palladium is massively outperforming it and yet the ratio in palladium is dramatically below platinum.

Gold:

For the week, August gold gained 60 cents. The COT report revealed managed money added 14,656 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 11,368 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,544 contracts of their long positions and added 9,634 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by ratio of 6.41:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 3.88:1 and more than triple the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.89:1.

Silver:

For the week, September silver gained 30 ticks. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,973 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,722 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,007 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 880 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 3.78:1, which is up significantly from the previous week of 2.38:1 and more than triple the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.20:1.

During the 2nd quarter, September palladium was the out performer with a gain of 8.47%, September silver + 6.42%, September copper +5.88%, October platinum +4.68%, August gold +3.42%.

Year to date, September palladium is the out performer with a gain of 19.26%, August gold + 9.62%, October platinum +9.10%, September silver +8.63%, September copper -2.66%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the September Canadian dollar gained 34 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 5,598 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,974 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short the Canadian dollar by ratio of 1.38:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 1.83:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.42:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the Australian dollar lost 63 pips. The COT report revealed that managed money added 10,845 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,981 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds,are long the Australian dollar by ratio of 2.37:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 2.41:1, but above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.07:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the September Swiss franc lost 36 pips.The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 478 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,680 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio of 1.72:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.53:1 and a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when leveraged funds were long the Swiss franc by ratio of 1.32:1.

British pound:

For the week, the September British pound gained 1.28 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 811 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,640 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the British pound by ratio of 3.51:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.32:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.27:1.

Euro:  On July 1, the September euro generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, the September euro lost 43 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 3,509 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,041 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 2.28:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 2.12:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.20:1.

Yen:

For the week, the September yen lost 81 pips. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,427 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,051 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by ratio of 3.7:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.40:1, and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.97:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the September dollar index gained 20 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 3,081 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 416 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 1.23:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.52:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.47:1.

During the 2nd quarter, the September Canadian dollar was the out performer with a gain of 3.79%, September British pound +2.67%, September Australian dollar +2.27%, September yen +1.84%, September euro -0.55%, September dollar index -0.74%.

Year to date, the September Australian dollar is the out performer with a gain of 6.06%, September British pound +3.68%, September yen +2.87%, September Canadian dollar +0.49%, September dollar index -0.32%, September Swiss franc -0.75%, September euro -1.35%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the September 500 futures contract gained 25.60 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 791 contracts to their long positions and also added 855 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the S&P 500 futures by ratio of 1.18:1, which is about the same as the previous week of 1.19:1, but significantly below the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.87:1.

During the 2nd quarter, the NASDAQ cash index 100 was the out performer with a gain of 7.06%, S&P 500 cash index +4.69%, New York composite cash index +4.29%, S&P 400 cash index + 3.95%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +2.24%, Russell 2000 cash index +1.70%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 9.22%, S&P 400 cash index + 7.57%, S&P 500 cash index +7.42%, New York composite cash index +6.77%, Russell 2000+3.82%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +2.97%.