The current COT report encompasses the time frame of May 28 through June 3.

On June 11, the USDA will release its World Agriculture Supply Demand Report (WASDE).

Soybeans: On June 6, July soybeans generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

On June 6, new crop November soybeans generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, July soybeans lost 36.25 cents, August -23.50, new crop November -22.00. The COT Report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,577 contracts of their long positions and added 11,573 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 15,294 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 13,584 contracts of their short positions. Note that commercials and managed money did exactly the opposite. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio 4.22:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 6.29:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 5.00:1. The current ratio is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of November 5, 2013 when managed money was long soybeans by ratio 4.31:1.

Although July soybeans generated a short-term sell signal on June 6, we are reluctant to become overly bearish at this juncture. It appears that managed money has gotten significantly bearish during the recent COT reporting period. To put the current ratio in perspective, consider that when the ratio was trading near its current level 4.22:1 during the COT period of October 29, 2013-November 5, 2013 (4.31:1), the trading range for the November 2013 contract was $12.55-13.00, or approximately $2.00 lower than the range encompassed by the current COT report: 14.75-15.11 3/4. With tightness remaining in old crop, the short-term sell signal in the July contract could be reversed easily. We feel much more comfortable with the put position in the new crop November contract that we recommended on June 2.

Soybean meal:

For the week, July soybean meal lost $12.60, August -12.20, new crop December -9.40. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,168 contracts of their long positions and added 77 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,504 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,114 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by ratio of 4.76:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.84:1, but slightly above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.64:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, July soybean oil advanced 51 points, August +53, new crop December +45. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 926 contracts of their long positions and added 13,607 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 12,486 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 8,442 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report , managed money is short soybean oil by ratio of 1.20:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by ratio of 1.02:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.03:1.

Corn:

For the week, July corn lost 6.75 cents, September -1.75, new crop December +0.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 12,570 contracts to their long positions and also added 17,503 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 880 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 7,836 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by ratio of 2.54:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.86:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.77:1.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, July Chicago wheat lost 9.00 cents, September – 9.50, new crop December -9.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,990 contracts of their long positions and added 12,448 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,861 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,974 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long Chicago wheat by ratio of 1.11:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.44:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.56:1.

Kansas City wheat: On June 2, July Kansas City wheat generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on May 19.

For the week, July Kansas City wheat advanced 12.50 cents, September +9.50, new crop December +7.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,371 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,167 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 274 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,287 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 3.66:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.94:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.08:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, July soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 5.18%, July soybeans +1.92%, July Kansas City wheat -3.89%, July soybean oil -3.99%, July corn -9.42%, July Chicago wheat -11.82%.

Year to date, July soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 21.63%, July soybeans +15.22%, July Kansas City wheat +14.30%, July corn +5.03%, July Chicago wheat +0.24%, July soybean oil -2.13%.

Cotton:

For the week, July cotton lost 1.49 cents, December +53 points, March 2015 +63 points. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,426 contracts of their long positions and added 473 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 118 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,683 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by ratio of 2.85:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.20:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.65:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, July sugar lost 46 points, October -47, March 2015 -31. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 507 contracts of their long positions and added 2,557 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,731 contracts to their long positions and also added 7,721 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long sugar by ratio of 2.34:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.43: 1 and down dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.38:1.

Coffee: On June 3, July coffee generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on May 12. 

For the week, July coffee lost 5.40 cents, September -5.25, December -5.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 369 contracts of their long positions and added 747 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 815 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,373 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by ratio of 6.53:1, which is down from the previous week of 7.34:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 9.65:1.The current ratio is the lowest since the April 8 COT report when managed money was long coffee by ratio of 6.48:1.

Cocoa:

For the week, July cocoa advanced $8.00, September + 9.00, December +10.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,610 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 697 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,537 contracts of their long positions and added 3,118 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by ratio of 4.50:1, which is up from the previous week of 4.04:1 and up substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.40:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, July cocoa is the out performer with a gain of 3.74%, July coffee -4.39%, July sugar -6.67%, July cotton -9.37%.

Year to date, July coffee is the out performer with a gain of 49.52%, July cocoa +13.03%, July sugar +1.14%, July cotton +0.95%.

Live cattle:

For the week, June live cattle advanced 2.32 cents, August +2.70, October +1.90. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 814 contracts of their long positions and added 343 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,518 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,131 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cattle by ratio of 15.55:1, which is down from the previous week of 16.31:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 19.30:1. The current ratio is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of May 13 when managed money was long live cattle by ratio of 14.98:1. The ratio of 2 weeks ago of 19.30:1 was the high for 2014.

Lean hogs: On June 6, July wheat hogs generated a short-term buy signal, and remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, June lean hogs advanced 1.22 cents, July +4.50, August +4.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,856 contracts of their long positions and added 1,392 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,943 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,680 contracts of their short positions. Note that commercials and managed money were doing the exact opposite.

As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by ratio of 7.97:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 9.92:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 14.51:1. The current ratio is the lowest since the February 25 COT tabulation date when managed money was long hogs by ratio of 5.94:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, August cattle is the out performer with a gain of 5.46%, June cattle +2.34%, July hogs +0.99%.

Year to date, July hogs is the out performer with a gain of 26.43%, August cattle +10.92%, June cattle +8.77%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, July WTI crude oil lost 5 cents, August -4, September +2. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,607 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,245 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 21,736 contracts to their long positions and also added 26,081 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a stratospheric 13.54:1, which is up from the previous week of 12.16:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 10.33:1.The current ratio is the highest since the March 4, 2014 COT tabulation date when managed money was long WTI crude oil by ratio of 14.98:1

Heating oil:

For the week, July heating oil lost 1.70 cents, August -1.58, September -1.59. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 8,647 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 984 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 854 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 13,137 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long heating oil by ratio of 2.39:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.80:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.82:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, July gasoline lost 3.29 cents, August -2.80, September -2.42. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,619 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,557 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 12,419 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 12,073 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio 3.56:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.74:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.89:1.

Natural gas: On June 6, July natural gas generated a short-term buy signal, and remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, July natural gas advanced 16.8 cents, August +17.6, September +18.4. The COT report revealed that managed money added 10,970 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,009 contracts to their short positions.Commercial interests added 7,246 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,113 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long natural gas by ratio of 1.39:1, which is the same as the previous week and the same as 2 weeks ago (1.39:1).

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, July natural gas is the out performer with a gain of 6.21%, July WTI crude oil +2.98%, July gasoline +2.30%, August Brent crude oil +0.93%, July heating oil -1.58%, July ethanol -3.36%.

Year to date, July ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 25.95%, July natural gas +13.54%, July WTI crude oil +6.53%, July gasoline lost sign 1.86%, August Brent crude oil -0.44%, July heating oil -4.67%.

Copper: On June 6, July copper generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, July copper lost 8.30 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,764 contracts of their long positions and added 293 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 367 contracts to their long positions and also added 48 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by ratio of 1.74:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.98:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.80:1.

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium advanced $7.90. The COT report revealed that managed money added 397 contracts to their long positions and also added 461 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 339 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 922 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio of 5.50:1, which is down from the previous week of 5.99:1 and about the same as the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 5.42:1.

Platinum:

For the week, July platinum advanced 30 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 89 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 481 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 142 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,190 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a stratospheric 18.17:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 14.95:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 14.14:1.

Gold:

For the week, August gold advanced $6.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 99 contracts to their long positions and also added 19,486 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,164 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,696 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by ratio of 1.52:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 2.07:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.60:1.

Silver:

For the week, July silver advanced 30.9 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 939 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,351 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,496 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,778 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short silver by ratio of 1.22:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.12:1 and down dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago when managed money was long silver by ratio of 1.03:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, September palladium is the out performer with a gain of 8.73%, July platinum +2.45%, July copper +1.21%, August gold -2.41%, July silver -4.28%.

Year to date, September palladium is the out performer with a gain of 17.3%, July platinum +5.72%, August gold + 4.06%, July silver -2.20%, July copper -9.28%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the June Canadian dollar lost 72 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 489 contracts of their long positions and added 1,346 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Canadian dollar by ratio of 1.62:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.55:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.82:1.

Australian dollar: On June 6, the June Australian dollar generated a short-term buy signal and remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the June Australian dollar advanced 39 pips. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,114 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 788 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the Australian dollar by ratio of 2.37:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.10:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.54:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the June Swiss franc advanced 22 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 617 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,423 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio of 1.55:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.76:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.31:1.

British pound:

For the week, the June British pound advanced 48 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 3,087 contracts of their long positions and added 117 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the pound by ratio of 4.40:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.50:1 but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.08:1.

Euro:

For the week, the June euro added 13 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 12,164 contracts of their long positions and added 3,592 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 1.78:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 1.28:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago when leveraged funds were short the euro by ratio of 1.06:1.

Yen:

For the week, the June yen lost 81 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 1,433 contracts to their long positions and also added 10,777 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by ratio of 3.10:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.84:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.66:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the June dollar index advanced 2 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 2,991 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,223 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 3.99:1, which is down significantly from the previous week ratio of 5.13:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.80:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, the June Canadian dollar is the out performer with a gain of 1.22%, June British pound +0.89%, June yen +0.65%, June dollar index +0.22%, June euro -0.92%, June Swiss franc – 1.08%.

Year to date, the June Australian dollar is the out performer with a gain of 5.72%, June yen +2.60%, June British pound +1.60%, June dollar index +0.10%, June Swiss franc -0.63%, June euro – 1.03%, June Canadian dollar -2.39%.

S&P 500 futures contract (250 x):

For the week, the June S&P 500 futures contract advanced 27.80 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 2,020 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,423 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 2.06:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.92:1 but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.46:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 5.53%, S&P 500 cash index +4.12%, New York Composite Index +3.58%, Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.84%, S&P 400+2.32%, Russell 2000 -0.67%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the leader with a gain of 5.64%, S&P 500 cash index +5.47%, S&P 400 cash index +5.06%, New York Composite Index +4.85%, Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.10%, Russell 2000 +0.13%.

10 Year Treasury notes:

Although we follow the treasury note market, we do not report on it except to note when buy and sell signals occur. The rally in notes and bonds during the past 2 months has been  spectacular and much of the talk on the street has been about speculators caught in a short squeeze. Although shorts have suffered significant losses, the rally in the 10 year note has not caused leveraged funds to cover their positions. It is apparent that speculative shorts have dug in and that the market would have to take another leg higher to force leveraged funds to cover short positions.

As an example, on April 1, leveraged funds  were short 10 year treasury notes by 307,395 contracts. By June 3 leveraged funds were short by 302,461 contracts. In summary, during a rally of approximately 3.5 points, open interest declined by less than 5,000 contracts, 4934 to be exact. In the same COT time frame (April 1 and June 3), leveraged funds actually reduced their long positions, which indicates a high degree of skepticism of the rally. For example, in the April 1 COT report, leveraged funds held 861,425 contracts long, but by the June 3 report this had been reduced to 757,889 contracts.

We analyzed open interest stats from April 3 when the rally began through May 29 when it topped out. During this time, the June contract rallied from a close of 122-31 on April 3 to 126-155, the high close on May 28. Total open interest in this time frame increased by 216,646 contracts.While this is positive open interest action relative to the price advance, the 10 year note has run into stiff resistance at the March 3, 2014 high of 126-24, which has stopped previous for rallies going back to December 2013. The previous major high to the March 3 print occurred during the week of October 28, 2013 when the December 2013 treasury note made a high of 128-02, which was the highest print since the week of June 17, 2013 (130-25).

On the other hand, performance of the 30 year treasury bond caused speculators to react much differently due to the significant out performance versus the 10 year during the approximate 2 month rally. For example, the June 30 year treasury bond rallied from a close of 131-31 on April 2 to the high close of 138-23 on May 28, or nearly 7 points compared to approximately 3.5 point rally in the 10 year treasury note in the same time frame.

As a consequence, leveraged funds reacted quite differently. In the April 1 COT report, leveraged funds held 86,354 contracts long and 123,510 contracts short. However, by the June 3 report, holdings completely reversed and leveraged funds held 122,702 contracts long and 77,676 contracts short..From April 2 through May 28, the 30 year treasury bond advanced 5.09% while the 10 year treasury note advanced 2.90%. In summary, leveraged funds in the 10 year treasury note were willing to hold their short positions during the rally and even reduce long positions. However, they were quick to cover their short positions in the 30 year and add significantly to their long positions during the rally.

The central question at this juncture is where do we go from here? According to OIA protocols, the September treasury note first must make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point of 124-15. After this, the September contract must make a daily low above the 2nd pivot point of 125-22 before it can resume its uptrend. If the September note gets trapped between the 2 pivot points: 124-15 and 125-22, or is unable to make a daily low above either of the pivot points, the market will trade sideways and possibly reverse to generate a short-term sell signal.