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The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday February 24 through Tuesday March 1.

Apple: Generally speaking, we only comment on action in the major indices. However, on March 1 we informed clients that Apple Computer generated a short term buy signal. It continues to be on an intermediate term sell signal. We think the worst is over for Apple and that it will trend higher in the period immediately ahead. Perhaps this is another indication that the rally in the S&P 500 is not over. 

Soybeans:

For the week, May soybeans advanced 15.00 cents, July + 14. 50, new crop November +15.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 24,681 of their long positions and added 32,804 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 902 of their long positions and also liquidated 38,375 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybeans by a ratio of 2.21:1, which is nearly double the previous week’s ratio of 1.15:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.43:1.

Soybean meal: May soybean meal will generate a short-term buy signal if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for March 4 of $267.30

For the week, May soybean meal advanced $10.30, July + 9.90, new crop December +9.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 625 contracts of their long positions and added 1,422 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 14,649 of their long positions and also liquidated 16,378 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean meal by a ratio of 2.48:1, up from the previous week of 2.38:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.14:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, May soybean oil lost 27 points, July -28, new crop December -27. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,899 of their long positions and added 4,350 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 9,984 their long positions and also liquidated 25,460 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by a ratio of 2.24:1, down from the previous week of 2.74:1 and a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 3.69:1.

Corn:

For the week, May corn lost 1.25 cents, July -0.75, new crop December -0.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 13,796 contracts of their long positions and added a massive 54,456 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,464 their long positions and also liquidated 47,132 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short corn by a record high short ratio for 2016 of 2.43:1, up substantially from the previous week of 1.87:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.87:1.

We find it remarkable that managed money is massively short at the very bottom of corn’s trading range. On January 7, corn made its 2016 low of 3.48 1/2, which is above the 52 week continuation contract low of 3.46 3/4 made the week of June 15, 2015. In other words, managed money is massively short corn at the very bottom of the market going back 1 year.

This is a potential disaster for short-sellers as the planting season is not far away, and it appears unlikely that the corn market is going to break below its January 2016 and June 2015 lows. May corn remains on short and intermediate term sell signals.

During the past week, July and December 2016 corn recorded new contract lows of 3.59 and 3.73 1/4 respectively.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, May Chicago wheat advanced 8. 50 cents, July+7.25, December+5. 50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,894 of their long positions and added 10,026 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 45 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 13,108 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by a 2016 record of 3.02:1, up from 2.71 the previous week and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.40:1.

During the past week, May, July and December Chicago wheat recorded new contract lows of 4.42 1/4, 4. 49 1/2, and 4.75 3/4 respectively.

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, May Kansas City wheat advanced 15.25 cents, July+ 14. 50, December+ 12. 25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,371 to their long positions and also added 2,100 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,005 of their long positions and also liquidated 5,608 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Kansas City wheat by a ratio of 1.70:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.71:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.65:1.

During the past week, May, July and December KC wheat recorded new contract lows of 4.47 1/4,  4.57 1/4,  4.91 3/4.

Cotton:

For the week, May cotton lost 42 points, July -62, December -64. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,803 to their long positions and also added 2,634 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,,595 to long positions and liquidated 451 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short cotton by a ratio of 1.12:1, up slightly from the previous week of 1.10:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.08:1.

During the past week, May, July and new crop December cotton recorded new contract lows of 54.53, 54.33 and 54.19 respectively.

Sugar: On March 2, May New York sugar generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on February 24.

For the week, May New York sugar advanced 83 points, July+ 80, October+ 79. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 6,183 of their long positions and also liquidated 27,571 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 41,379 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,856 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long sugar by a ratio of 1.14:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by ratio of 1.09:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was long by a ratio of 1.02:1.

Coffee:

For the week, May coffee advanced 5.85 cents, July+ 5.65, September+ 5.55. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,598 of their long positions and added 7,273 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,397 to their long positions and liquidated 2,112 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short coffee by a ratio of 1.79:1, up from the previous week of 1.41:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.59:1.

Cocoa:

For the week, May cocoa advanced $120.00, July+ 119.00, September+ 114.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,686 to their long positions and liquidated 2,056 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,764 their long positions and also liquidated 1,994 their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 2.03:1, up from the previous week of 1.80:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.72:1.

Live cattle:

For the week, April live cattle lost 65 points, June+ 52, August+ 55. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,123 to their long positions and liquidated 2,209 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,148 of their long positions and added 6,545 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 1.68:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.45:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.29:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, April lean hogs lost 5 points, June+ 37, August+ 38. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 468 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,154 their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 339 of their long positions and added 2,990 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by a record 2016 ratio of 4.13:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.84:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 3.37:1.

WTI crude oil: On March 3, April and May WTI crude oil generated short-term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, April WTI crude oil advanced $3.14, May+ 3.17, June+ 3.15. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,628 to their long positions and liquidated 18,531 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 9,661 of their long positions and added 5,028 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by a ratio of 1.80:1, up from the previous week of 1.59:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.28:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, April heating oil advanced 9.45 cents, May+ 9.08, June+ 8.72. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,427 of their long positions and added 875 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 329 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,609 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains short heating oil by a ratio of 2.08:1, up from the previous week of 1.86:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.71:1.

Remarkably, managed money remains short heating oil by a 2 to 1 ratio. On Friday, the price of the April contract made a high of 1.1665, which is the highest print since 1.1638 made on January 6. The April contract made its contract low of 87.50 on January 21.

Gasoline:

For the week, April gasoline advanced 3.70 cents, May+ 4. 80, June+ 5. 83. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,060 to their long positions and liquidated 4,435 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,473 of their long positions and added 5,815 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 1.91:1, up from the previous week of 1.62:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.76:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, April natural gas lost 12.5 cents, May -8.6 June -5.1 The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,853 to their long positions and also added 8,180 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 13,809 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,874 their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.90:1, down fractionally from the previous week of 1.91:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.84:1.

During the past week, April, May and June natural gas recorded new contract lows of 1. 611, 1. 736, and 1. 855 respectively. This week’s print in the April contract is the lowest since 1999.

Copper: On March 2, May copper generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on February 4.

For the week, May copper advanced 14.95 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,446 to their long positions and liquidated 2,577 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,950 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,031 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by a ratio of 1.20:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by ratio of 1.07:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short copper by ratio of 1.23:1.

Palladium:

For the week, June palladium advanced $80.55. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 556 of their long positions and added 341 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 163 to their long positions and liquidated 819 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a ratio of 1.50:1, down from the previous week of 1.54:1 and a substantial reduction from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.94:1.

Platinum:

For the week, April platinum advanced $71.20. The COT report revealed that managed money added 600 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 962 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 667 to their long positions and liquidated 922 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 3.66:1, up from the previous week of 3.17:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.78:1.

Gold:

For the week, April gold advanced $48.40. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,550 of their long positions and also liquidated 2,823 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,409 of their long positions and added 6,310 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 4.54:1, up from the previous week of 4.38:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 2.79:1.

During the past week, April gold made a new contract high of $1280.70.

Silver:

For the week, May silver advanced 98.0 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,566 of their long positions and also liquidated 100 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,537 to their long positions and liquidated 1,551 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by a ratio of 5.03:1, down from the previous week of 5.38:1 but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 4.67:1.

Canadian dollar: 

For the week, the March Canadian dollar advanced 1.11 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,348 of their long positions and also liquidated 8,905 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds remain massively short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 6.91:1, up from the previous week of 6.06:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 7.44:1.

On March 1, the tabulation date for the COT report, the March Canadian dollar made a new high for the move of 74.71 and despite this, it was not enough to shake out the short-sellers of their positions. Their losses continue to mount and on Friday the Canadian dollar made another new high for the move of 75.12, which is up from the contract low of 68.09 made on January 20. On February 1, OIA announced that the March Canadian dollar generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on February 26.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the March Australian dollar advanced 3.01 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,236 to their long positions and liquidated 1,828 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds remain short the Australian dollar by a ratio of 1.11:1, down from the previous week of 1.27:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.67:1.

On March 1 when the COT report was tabulated, the March Australian dollar made a high of 71.89, and this was below the high for the move of 72.53 made on February 23. On Friday, the aussie made a new high for the move of 74.49, which is the highest print since July 2015. We think in the next COT report, leverage funds will have shifted to a net long position. On February 4, OIA announced that the March and June Australian dollar generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on February 23.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the March Swiss franc advanced 23 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 287 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 772 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds remain short the Swiss franc by a ratio of 2.02:1, down from the previous week of 2.15:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.34:1.

British pound:

For the week, the March British pound advanced 3. 52 cents. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,443 to their long positions and also added 11,191 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the British pound by a ratio of 2.40:1, up from the previous week of 2.28:1 and exactly the same ratio as two weeks ago of 2.28:1.

During the past week, the March British pound recorded a new contract low of 1.3835.

Euro: On February 29, the March and June euro generated short-term sell signals and on March 1 generated intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, the March euro advanced 69 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 375 to their long positions and also added 16,090 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the euro by a ratio 1.93:1, up from the previous week of 1.65:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.71:1.

Yen:

For the week, the March yen lost 16 pips. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 5,117 to their long positions and liquidated 4,626 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the yen by a ratio of 1.48:1, up from the previous week of 1.28:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.28:1.

The current long ratio of 1.48:1 is the highest of 2016. The March yen is getting close to generating a short term sell signal. 

Dollar index: On February 29, the March and June dollar index generated short-term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

For the week, the March dollar index lost 83 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 2,665 of their long positions and also liquidated 1,311 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the dollar index by a ratio of 1.98:1, down fractionally from the previous week of 1.99:1, but up from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.92:1.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the March S&P 500 futures contract gained 52.20 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds added 2,822 to their long positions and also added 1,379 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are long the S&P 500 futures contract by a ratio of 1.51:1, up from the previous week of 1.42:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.18:1.

10 Year Treasury Note: On March 3, the June 10 year treasury note generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the June 10 year treasury note lost 1-09 points. The COT report revealed that leverage funds liquidated 53,272 of their long positions and added 12,956 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leverage funds are short the 10 year note by a ratio of 1.56:1, up from the previous week of 1.38:1, but down from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.77:1.