Soybeans: On May 22, July soybeans generated a short-term buy signal and remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, July soybeans advanced 50.50 cents, August +45.75, new crop November +44.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 4,258 contracts of their long positions and added 6,291 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 14,000 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,869 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio of 5.00:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 6.27:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 6.76:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of January 7, 2014 and during the tabulation period from January 2-January 7, near-term soybeans (March) traded in a range of $12.80 1/4- 13.12 1/2 and closed on January 7 at 12.99 1/2.

Although July soybeans outperformed the new crop November contract during the past week, for the 2nd quarter, November soybeans continue to outpace July by approximately 10%. For example, through May 23, November beans have advanced 6.61% while August has gained 6.21% and the July contract is in 3rd place with a gain of 6.02%. The strong performance in the 2nd quarter by the November contract is most definitely supportive of old crop contracts and as we pointed out in last weekend’s report, we expect July soybeans to continue their advance.

However, clients should be on guard for soybeans to top out in June, or possibly July. Soybeans have a long history going back to the early 70s of making contract highs in June and July. Most contract highs have been made in June.

July soybeans generated a short-term buy signal on May 22, and is usually the case after the generation of a buy signal, the market has a tendency to pullback from 1-3 days. On May 23, soybeans closed 3.25 cents lower after making a new contract high of 15.36 3/4 on May 22. If soybeans correct for another day, preferably two, there will be a terrific opportunity on the long side.

However, clients should keep in mind that  soybean meal is the leader of bean complex. We think it is quite likely that all time highs in soybean meal may be seen before old crop contracts expire.

From the May 18 Weekend Wrap:

“As the 2nd quarter stats show for July, August and November contracts, the July contract has been the weakest of the three, which certainly should not be the case due to tightness in old crop soybeans. We think there is a good probability that the July contract could see a strong rally.” 

“The strength in the new crop November contract versus old crop July and August is supportive to old crop prices. Once the November contract breaks down and generates the sell signal, the psychology of old crop tightness may begin to lessen. This is especially the case because the US is importing soybeans to mitigate short-term tightness.”

Soybean meal:

For the week, July soybean meal advanced $22.40, August +19.60, new crop December +21.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,489 contracts of their long positions and added 453 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,305 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,535 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by ratio of 4.64:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.82:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.01:1.

Last week, we recommended a bull spreading July 2014-August 2014 and on Friday the spread closed at $27.20 premium to July. We expect the spread to continue to widen as tightness in old crop soybean meal continues to accelerate. Like soybeans, new crop soybean meal is outperforming old crop.For example, during the 2nd quarter through May 23, December soybean meal has gained 9.03% while August has advanced 8.89% and July with a gain of 8.41%. As indicated in the report on soybeans, we expect soybean meal to make all time highs, which means a breakout above $550.00.

From the May 20 report:

“A more conservative way to trade soybean meal would be to buy the July contract and sell the August contract. This spread made a low on May 12, of $23.00 premium to July, which was the lowest price since late March 2014. It made a high of $31.50 on April 9 and a secondary high of 31.30 on April 21.The spread has 5 weeks to work before the July contract enters 1st notice day. If the spread dips below $23.00, we would exit the position.”

Soybean oil:

For the week, July soybean oil lost 37 points, August -36, new crop December -6. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,705 contracts of their long positions and added 12,880 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,004 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 7,730 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by ratio of 1.03:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 1.37:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.56:1.

Corn: On May 21, July corn generated in intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on May 15.

For the week, July corn lost 5.50 cents, September -5.75, new crop December – 5.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 31,440 contracts of their long positions and added 16,722 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,725 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 44,160 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by ratio of 3.77:1, which is down significantly from the previous week of 5.32:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 6.37:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT report date of March 11, 2014 when managed money was long corn by ratio of 3.78:1. The trading range encompassed by the report for the July contract was 4.77 1/4 – 5.06 and closed at 4.87 on March 11.On May 20, the date of the COT report, July corn closed at 4.73 1/2 and on May 23, closed at 4.78.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, July Chicago wheat lost 21.75 cents, September – 19.50, new crop December -16.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 9,676 contracts of their long positions and added 9,331 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,623 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 9363 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long Chicago wheat by ratio of 1.56:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 2.05:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.03:1.

Kansas City wheat: On May 19, July Kansas City wheat generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, July Kansas City wheat lost 22.75 cents, September -21.00, new crop December -22.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,178 contracts of their long positions and added 820 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,406 contracts to their long positions and also added 788 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 4.08:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.55:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 5.55:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT report of March 4, 2014 when managed money was long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 3.16:1. The trading range encompassed by the report was 6.60 1/2 – 7.12 and July KC wheat closed at 7.02 12/4 on March 4.On May 20, the date of the COT report, July KC wheat closed at 7.68 1/4 and on May 23, closed at 7.45.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, July soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 8.41%, July soybeans +6.02%, July soybean oil -0..62%, July Kansas City wheat -2.65%, July corn -5.67%, July Chicago wheat -6.99%.

Year to date, July soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 25.37%, July soybeans +19.85%, July Kansas City wheat +15.77%, July corn +9.38%, July Chicago wheat +5.80%, July soybean oil +1.30%.

Cotton: On May 23, July cotton generated an intermediate term sell signal, after generating a short-term sell signal on May 12.

For the week, July cotton lost 3.51 cents, new crop December -2.87, March 2015 -2.44. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,387 contracts of their long positions and added 1,455 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,381 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,946 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by ratio of 4.65:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 5.88:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 7.35:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT report of February 4, 2014 when managed money was long cotton by ratio of 4.48:1.The trading range encompassed by this report was 85.00-87.67 and July cotton closed at 85.61 on February 4. On May 20, the date of the COT report, July cotton closed at 89.00 and on May 23, closed at 86.31.

Sugar #11: On May 22, July sugar generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, July sugar lost 54 points, October -40, March 2015 -25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 709 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,526 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,510 contracts to their long positions and also added 24,435 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long sugar by ratio of 3.38:1, which is up significantly from the previous week of 3.08:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.92:1.

The current ratio is the highest since the COT tabulation date of April 8 when managed money was long sugar by ratio of 3.54:1.The range encompassed by the report was 17.26-17.82 and July sugar closed at 17.78. On May 20, the tabulation date of the COT report, July sugar closed at 17.58 and closed at 17.37 on May 23.

Coffee:

For the week, July coffee lost 3.15 cents, September -3.05, December -2.90. The COT report revealed that managed money added 102 contracts to their long positions and also added 297 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 100 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,297 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by ratio of 9.65:1, which is down from the previous week of 10.25:1 and down dramatically from the COT high of 13.38:1 made 2 weeks ago.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT report of April 15 when managed money was long coffee by ratio of 9.40:1.

Cocoa: On May 21, July Cocoa generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, July cocoa gained $105.00, September +102.00, December + 91.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 331 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 731 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,933 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,687 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by ratio of 3.40:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 3.30:1 but down slightly from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.65:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, July cocoa is the out performer with a gain of 1.82%, July coffee +1.06%, July sugar -4.19%, July cotton -7.74%.

Year to date, July coffee is the out performer with a gain of 58.04%, July cocoa +10.94%, July sugar +3.83%, July cotton +2.77%.

Live cattle:

For the week, June live cattle lost 1.60 cents, August -1.25, October -1.15. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,762 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,924 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,309 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,352 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by a ratio of 19.30:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 14.98:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 15.18: 1.

The current ratio of 19.30:1 takes out the previous high of 17.38:1 made in the COT report on April 8 and is the highest ratio recorded during 2014. This is another reason to be on the sidelines.

Lean hogs:

For the week, June lean hogs lost 2.07 cents, July -1.53, August -1.35. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,429 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 129 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,133 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 394 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by ratio of 14.51:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 14.62: 1 and down dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 24.60:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, August cattle is the out performer with a gain of 1.82%, July hogs – 0.02%, June cattle -0.87%.

Year to date, July hogs is the out performer with a gain of 25.16%, August cattle +7.09%, June cattle +5.35%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, July WTI crude oil advanced $2.77, August +2.67, September +2.53. The COT report revealed that managed money added 20,021 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,756 contracts to their short positions.Commercial interests liquidated 19,654 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 16,184 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio of 10.33:1, which is down from the previous week of 11.34:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 10.48:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, July heating oil gained 63 points, August +93, September +1.05 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,233 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,013 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,585 contracts of their long positions and added 280 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long heating oil by ratio of 2.82:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.51:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.25:1.

Gasoline: On May 19, July gasoline generated a short-term buy signal and remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, July gasoline advanced 5.11 cents, August +5.26, September +5.29. The COT revealed that managed money liquidated 905 contracts of their long positions and added 1,087 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 424 contracts of their long positions and added 270 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio of 3.89:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.17:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.59:1.

Remarkably, July gasoline is the 2nd best performer during the 2nd quarter, yet the current ratio is the lowest since the March 25 COT report when managed money was long by a ratio of 3.75:1.The trading range encompassed by the March 25 report was $2.8236-2.9001 and July gasoline closed at 2.8625 on March 25. On May 20, July gasoline closed at 2.9640 and on May 23 closed at 3.0235. In short, managed money was as bearish on May 20 as they were on March 25 except that gasoline prices were higher on May 20.

Natural gas:

For the week, July natural gas lost 1.6 cents, August -2.1, September -2.5. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 14,484 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 4,215 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,930 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,735 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long natural gas by ratio of 1.39:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.43:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.55:1.

The current ratio is the lowest since the COT tabulation date of December 10, 2013 when managed money was long natural gas by ratio of 1.24:1.

As the May 11 Weekend Wrap pointed out (see below), near-term spreads were performing in a bullish fashion despite the lackluster performance of natural gas prices. This continued during the past week and on May 23, the July 2014-November 2014 spread closed at a 1 cent premium to July, which is the highest close for the spread since February 21, 2014 when the spread made a high of 1.3 cents premium to July. On that date, the July contract closed at $4.80. In short, the July contract is selling at a premium to November, which is the beginning of the winter season when large supplies of natural gas are consumed.

As we stated in the May 18 report: “A bull spread in natural gas is a low-cost and low risk way of entering the market, especially if the uptrend is not well-established.” 

From the May 11 Weekend Wrap:

“We wanted to bring to your attention that near-term spreads have been acting in a very bullish fashion even as natural gas prices have declined. For example, the June 2014-September 2014 spread closed at a 2.3 cents premium to June on May 9, which is the highest close for the spread since February 21, 2014 when the June-September 2014 spread closed at 3.6 cents premium to June and the June contract closed at $4.773. The low for the spread occurred on April 17 when June sold at a 7 tick premium to the September 2014 contract and June natural gas closed at $4.754. Spreads widening out as the general price level declines is bullish.”

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, WTI crude oil is the out performer with a gain of 4.60%, July gasoline +4.42%, July Brent crude oil +2.94%, July heating oil +1.17%, July natural gas -1.06%, June ethanol -2.92%.

Year to date, June ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 35.0%, July WTI crude oil + 8.21%, July natural gas +5.77%, July gasoline +3.97%, July Brent crude oil +1.40%, July heating oil -2.01%.

Copper:

For the week, July copper gained 2.05 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,183 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,374 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 318 contracts of their long positions and added 2,494 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long copper by ratio of 1.80:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 1.48:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.02:1.

Palladium:

For the week, June palladium advanced $16.45. The COT report revealed that managed money added 400 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 161 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 645 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 947 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio of 5.42:1, which is up from the previous week of 5.14:1 but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 5.77:1.

It continually surprises us that the ratio of managed money longs is considerably higher in platinum than palladium. Not only is palladium beating platinum during the 2nd quarter, it is outperforming year to date. We suspect that most people would be surprised to know that palladium is approaching highs last seen in 2011 when palladium made its high of 845.00 on February 15, 2011 and a secondary high on July 27, 2011 at 842.00.In order to put the performance of palladium in perspective, consider that from July 27, 2011 through May 23, 2014, palladium is trading only $14.00 lower, or – 1.66% while platinum is trading $334.60 lower or -18.51%, Yet the long to short ratio for platinum is 14.14:1 whereas palladium’s ratio is 5.42:1

Platinum:

For the week, July platinum gained $6.70. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,621 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 91 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 338 contracts of their long positions and added 1,321 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by ratio of 14.14:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 12.48:1 and up dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 10.34:1.

Gold: OIA recommends buying puts in August or October gold.

For the week, June gold lost $1.70. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,176 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 875 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,144 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,985 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by ratio of 3.60:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 3.57:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.15:1.

It  is only a matter of time before gold breaks out of its current consolidation pattern, which began on April 17. From April 17 through May 22 (final stats only) open interest has increased 35,440 contracts, but June gold advanced only $1.10, essentially unchanged for 26 sessions.The hefty open interest increase during 26 days has been unable to move the market one way or the other. A sharp move in either direction will be the path of least resistance for gold. Since April 17, June gold has been trading mostly under its 200 day moving average, and rallies have been unable to touch the 50 day moving average. The last time June gold traded above its 50 day moving average was April 14.

Another bearish factor is that the 50 day moving average of $1303.90 is likely to cross below the 200 day moving average of 1300.40, and once this occurs, the financial press will jump on the story about the death cross in gold, which will likely beget more selling.

The June dollar index and the cash dollar index have generated short and intermediate buy signals, and further strength in the dollar will pressure gold further. Additionally, strength in the S&P 500 and other major indices will generate more speculator/investor interest in equities, and away from gold and precious metals.

As of the latest COT report managed money is net long 81,153 contracts of gold and “Other Reportables“ are net long by 15,338 contracts. In other words, there are nearly 100,000 contracts long-held by speculators who will become distressed sellers as prices move lower.

Another factor to take into account, is the seasonal tendency for gold prices to decline from mid-May through early August.

Although the Greenhaven Continuous Commodity Index (GCC) is up 9.88% for the year, during the 2nd quarter has fallen back to the April 3 low. GCC is an equal weight commodity index composed of 17 commodities, and its poor performance thus far in the 2nd quarter is indicative of a lessening of commodity inflation, a negative for gold.

One of the compelling reasons to buy puts is that volatility as measured by the gold volatility index GVZ Is close to its 52-week low of 12.81 made on January 6, 2014 and is dramatically below the 52-week high of 33.60 made on June 27, 2013. The 50 day moving average of GVZ is 15.73 and the 200 day moving average is 19.28. The volatility index closed at 14.52 on May 23.

Option volatility is trading at the low-end of the range which makes options inexpensive. For example, as of May 23, a put option on a 1290 strike in the August contract (at the money) is $2760.00.We recommend the initiation of long puts immediately. June gold remains on a short-term sell signal and for an intermediate term sell signal to be generated, the high of the day in the June contract must be below 1286.00.

Silver:

For the week, July silver gained 8.4 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,080 contracts of their long positions and added 2,471 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,294 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,426 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 1.03:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.14:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.12:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, June palladium is the out performer with a gain of 7.25%, July copper +4.58%, July platinum +3.91%, June gold +0.61%, July silver -2.11%.

Year to date, June palladium is the out performer with a gain of 15.72%, June gold +7.40%, July platinum +7.24%, July silver +0.01%, July copper -6.25%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the June Canadian dollar closed unchanged. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 163 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,142 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Canadian dollar by ratio of 1.82:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.85:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.03:1.

Australian dollar: On May 20, the June Australian dollar generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, the June Australian dollar lost 1.23 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 1,021 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,437 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the Australian dollar by ratio of 2.54:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.33:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.69:1.

From April 30 through May 20, which comprises the length of 3 COT reports, leveraged funds have gone from a net long position of 18,669 on the May 6 report to a net long position of 32,131 contracts as of the May 20 report. However, during this time, the June Australian dollar has lost 0.31%. In other words, though the net long position of leveraged funds has increased substantially, it is not impacting prices positively.

On Friday, the June Australian dollar closed higher for the first time since May 16, and this is the first day of what is typically a countertrend rally after the generation of a sell signal (May 20). As of the latest COT report, leveraged funds are long the Australian dollar by the largest ratio in 2014. This makes the Aussie dollar vulnerable to further selling, especially since many funds undoubtedly are showing losses on their positions.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the June Swiss franc lost 54 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 442 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,175 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio of 1.31:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.21:1, and a dramatic reversal from 2 weeks ago when leveraged funds were long the Swiss franc by ratio of 1.26:1.

British pound:

For the week, the June British pound gained 1 pip. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 11,071 contracts to their long positions and also added 7,906 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the British pound by ratio of 4.08:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 4.80:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.85:1. The addition of short positions accounted for the drop in the ratio.

Euro:

For the week, the June euro lost 71 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 10,652 contracts of their long positions and added 1,272 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 1.06:1, which is a dramatic reversal from the previous week when leveraged funds were long by ratio of 1.14:1 and significantly below the ratio of 2 weeks ago when they were long by ratio of 1.90:1.

Yen:

For the week, the June yen lost 46 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 336 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 10,034 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by ratio of 2.66:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.03:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.89:1.

Dollar index: On May 23, the cash dollar index generated an intermediate term buy signal after the June dollar index generated a short-term buy signal on May 13.

For the week, the June dollar index gained 35 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 1,643 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 862 contracts of their short positions. According to the latest report, leveraged funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 4.80:1, which is up significantly from the previous week of 3.96:1 and up dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.93:1.

Now that the dollar index is on a short and intermediate term buy signal, we should see the currencies that comprise the index continue to break down. For example, we think the June British pound is especially vulnerable and the Swiss franc and euro have generated short and intermediate term sell signals, however the Canadian dollar remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. We think the Canadian dollar will continue to show strength against the pound, euro and Swiss franc.

Since the rally in the dollar began on May 7 through May 22 (final stats only) total open interest has declined by 11,867 contracts, which is bearish open interest action relative to the advance 1.13 points, or 1.42%. However, the large short interest held by leveraged funds should continue to propel the June dollar index higher.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, the June Canadian dollar is the out performer with a gain of 1.76%, June yen +1.19%, June British pound +0.92%, June dollar index +0.22%, June Australian dollar – 0.01%, June euro -1.07%, June Swiss franc -1.38%.

Year to date, the June Australian dollar is the out performer with a gain of 4.47%, June yen +3.15%, June British pound +1.63%, June dollar index +0.10%, June Swiss franc -0.93%, June euro -1.18%, June Canadian dollar -1.87%.

S&P 500 futures (250 x):

For the week, the June S&P 500 futures contract gained 22.20 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 1,234 contracts of their long positions and added 6,367 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 2.46:1, which is up dramatically from the ratio of 1.48:1, but up only slightly from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.15:1.

Thus far in the 2nd quarter, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 2.27%, S&P 500 cash index +1.51%, New York Composite cash index +1.46%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +0.90%, S&P 400 cash index -0.64%, Russell 2000 cash index -3.99%.

Year to date, the S&P 500 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 2.82%, New York Composite cash index +2.71%, NASDAQ 100 cash index + 2.38%, S&P 400 cash index +2.02 percent, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index + 0.18%, Russell 2000 cash index -3.22%.

AAII Index                                              Recent Week                                2 weeks ago                      2 weeks ago
Bullish 30.4% 33.1% 28.3%
Bearish 26.4 22.6 28.7
Neutral 43.2 44.3 43.0
Source: American Association of Individual Investors