For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

The time frame for this week’s Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, November 5 through Tuesday, November 11.

Soybeans:

For the week, January soybeans lost 14.25 cents, March 2015 -10.00, May 2015-7.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 6,883 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 10,195 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 6,067 contracts of their long positions and added 12,888 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio 1.86:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.51:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.31:1.

From September 30 through November 11 (which is the most recent COT report), managed money has gone from a net long position of 39,941 contracts on September 30 to a net long position of 54,905 on November 11, or an increase of just 14,964 contracts during the time when January soybeans advanced 1.42 3/4, or 15.50%. In our view, this indicates a high degree of skepticism about the rally by managed money and especially about the continuation of it.

In short, we do not think managed money is going to be a supporter of higher soybean prices. Eliminating this category as a major buyer is problematic for soybean prices going forward.As we have said in previous reports, we think the rally in soybeans is on borrowed time and the inability of soybeans to generate an intermediate term buy signal underscores the internal weakness of the market. Remarkably, it is Chicago wheat that has generated the intermediate term buy signal even though the fundamentals for soybeans are more favorable.

Soybean meal:

For the week, December soybean meal lost $10.50, January 2015 -6.70, March 2015 -4.10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,925 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 462 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,763 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,860 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by ratio 4.85:1, which is up from the previous week of 4.52:1 and up substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.16:1.

The current ratio of 4.85:1 is the highest since the COT report of June 10 when managed money was long by ratio of 4.67:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, December soybean oil lost 20 points, January 2015 -25, March 2015 -23. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,784 contracts of their long positions and added 9,566 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 8,342 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,315 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybean oil by ratio of 1.16:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.46:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.19:1.

Corn:

For the week, December corn advanced 14.25 cents, March 2015 +13.75, May 2015+13.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,247 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 22,843 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 9,414 contracts of their long positions and added 14,413 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by ratio of 2.59:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.15:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.86:1.

Note the increase in this week’s ratio was due to the substantial liquidation of short positions rather than a large increase of long positions.

On Friday, December corn closed at 3.81 3/4, which is the highest weekly close since July 7. On the weekly chart there is a gap between 3.87 1/2 and 3.94, which we see as the upper end of the trading range for December corn. Conceivably, a rally to the 3.96 5/8 area cannot be ruled out, but the market will likely struggle beyond this point.

From September 30 through November 11, managed money increased their net long position by 115,016 contracts, which is dramatically greater than the 14,964 contract increase in soybeans in the identical time frame. From September 30 through November 11 December corn advanced 16.50% while soybeans increased 15.50%. It seems that professional money managers much prefer trading corn to any of the other grains.

Chicago wheat:  On November 14, December Chicago wheat generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on October 17.

For the week, December Chicago wheat advanced 46.00 cents, March 2015 +36.50, May 2015+35.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,701 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,527 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,404 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 678 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remain short Chicago wheat by ratio of 1.36:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.37:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.52:1.

The current ratio of 1.36:1 is the lowest since June 17 when managed money was short Chicago wheat by ratio of 1.21:1.

We view the Chicago wheat market as a potential squeeze play due to the large net short position of managed money. The fundamentals for the market are terrible and exports have been abysmal. Yet Chicago wheat continues to climb a wall of worry and has been outperforming Kansas City wheat by a large margin (+17.32% versus 8.51% thus far in the 4th quarter).From September 30 through November 11, December Chicago wheat has advanced 47.50 cents. In this time frame, the net short position of managed money has gone from 66,611 contracts on September 30 to 30,338 on November 11.This week, December Chicago wheat closed at 5.60 1/2, which is the highest weekly close since June 30.

We think the market will struggle beyond 5.71 1/2, and for the rally to continue, the December contract must make a low above this pivot point.We do not see December Chicago wheat trading much above 5.90. Once a sufficient number of short sellers have been blown out, the rally will peter out and the downtrend will resume.

Kansas City wheat: On November 17, December Kansas City wheat generated a short-term buy signal, which reverses the short-term sell signal generated on November 17. December Kansas City wheat remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, December Kansas City wheat advanced 36.25 cents, March 2015 +34.25, May 2015+34.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 952 contracts of their long positions and added 2,807 to their short positions.Commercial interests added 1,174 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,055 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by ratio 1.44:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.65:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.57:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, December soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 27.10%, December corn +19.02%, December Chicago wheat +17.32%, January 2015 soybeans +10.99%, December Kansas City wheat +8.51%, December soybean oil -0.53%.

Year to date, December soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 8.60%, the December Kansas City wheat -9.53%, January 2015 soybeans -10.35%, December wheat -12.49%, December corn -15.21%, December soybean oil -19.64%.

Cotton: On November 12, March 2015 cotton generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, December cotton lost 4.16 cents, March 2015 -2.98, May 2015 -2.91. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 945 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,343 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 751 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,268 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by ratio of 1.70:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.54:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.41:1.

The increase in this week’s ratio of 1.70: 1 was due to the liquidation of short positions, not the addition of long positions.

During the past week, December 2014, March 2015 and May 2015 cotton contracts made new contract lows of 59.50, 58.57, and 59.16 respectively.

Sugar #11:

For the week, March 2015 sugar advanced 21 points, May 2015+15, July 2015 +. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,187 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,528 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,310 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,187 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by ratio of 1.34:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.37:1 and about the same as the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.33:1.

Coffee:

For the week, December coffee advanced 9.60 cents, March 2015 +9.60, May 2015+9.55. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,045 contracts of their long positions and added 282 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 775 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,668 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by ratio of 6.29:1, which is down from the previous week of 6.73:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 8.03:1.

The current ratio 6.29:1 is the lowest since September 30 when managed money was long coffee by ratio of 6.66:1.

Cocoa:

For the week, December cocoa lost $42.00, March 2015 -86.00, May 2015-90.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,904 contracts of their long positions and added 2,210 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 546 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,602 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long cocoa by ratio 3.11:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.7:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.37:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, March 2015 coffee is the out performer with a loss of 0.56%, March 2015 cotton -1.36%, March 2015 sugar -3.34%, March 2015 cocoa -14.18%.

Year to date, March 2015 coffee is the out performer with a gain of 59.57%, March 2015 cocoa +4.25%, March 2015 sugar -10.42%, March 2015 cotton -24.48%.

Live cattle:

For the week, December live cattle advanced 3.40 cents, February 2015 +2.90, April 2015 +2.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,431 contracts of their long positions and added 1,022 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,294 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,389 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by ratio of 9.81:1, which is down from the previous week of 10.87:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 11.56:1.

During the past week, December live cattle made a new contract high of 1.7057.

Lean hogs:

For the week, December lean hogs advanced 3.90 cents, February 2015 +4.33, April 2015 +3.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 823 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 691 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,902 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,005 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long lean hogs by ratio 3.87:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.67:1 but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.44:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, February 2015 live cattle is the out performer with a gain of 4.72%, December live cattle +4.23%, February lean hogs +2.32%, December lean hogs -2.14%.

Year to date, February 2015 live cattle is the out performer with a gain of 29.66%, December live cattle +29.11%, December lean hogs +16.57%, February 2015 lean hogs +15.15%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, December WTI crude oil lost $2.83, January 2015 -2.78, February 2015 -2.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,347 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 7,246 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,610 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,955 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio 3.97:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.54:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.13:1.

During the past week, December 2014, January 2015 and February 2015 WTI crude contracts made new contract lows of 73.25, 73.22, and 75.79 respectively.

Heating oil:

For the week, December heating oil lost 8.34 cents, January 2015 -10.42, February 2015 -10.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,339 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 506 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 8,752 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,626 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains short heating oil by ratio 1.63:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.71:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.92:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, December gasoline lost 9.27 cents, January 2015 -9.86, February 2015 -9.84. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,151 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,385 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,076 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,112 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio of 1.94:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.84:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.84:1.

During the past week, December 2014, January 2015 and February 2015 gasoline contracts made new contract lows of 1.9909, 1.9696, and 1.9816 respectively

Natural gas:

For the week, December natural gas lost 39.2 cents, January -37.8, February 2015 -35.4. The COT report revealed that managed money added 20,680 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,111 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,180 contracts to their long positions and also added 15,697 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long natural gas by ratio of 1.05:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when managed money was short by ratio of 1.01:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short natural gas by ratio of 1.13:1, which was the high short ratio.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, December ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 29.47%, December natural gas -3.08%, December heating oil -9.16%, December gasoline -14.29%, December WTI crude oil -16.14%, January 2015 Brent crude oil -17.06%.

Year to date, December ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 24.91%, December natural gas -5.73%, December WTI crude oil -18.03%, December heating oil -18.93%, December gasoline -20.96%, January Brent crude oil -24.82%.

Copper:

For the week, December copper advanced 55 points. The COT report revealed that managed money added 414 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,869 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,073 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,726 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by ratio of 1.05:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.18:1, and about the same as the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.03:1.

Palladium:

For the week, December palladium lost $1.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 79 contracts of their long positions and added 262 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 547 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 94 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio of 10.21:1, which is down from the previous week of 11.89:1, but significantly above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 6.84:1.

Platinum:

For the week, January platinum advanced 30 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 779 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 683 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 190 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 478 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by ratio of 2.04:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.90:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.83:1.

During the past week, January 2015 platinum made a new contract low of 1177.50.

Gold:

For the week, December gold advanced $15.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,846 contracts of their long positions and added 5,344 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 9811 contracts of their long positions and also added 9884 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long gold by ratio of 1.38:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.52:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.88:1.

Silver:

For the week, December silver advanced 60.0 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 142 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,011 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,559 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,263 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 1.05:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were short by ratio of 1.03:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short by ratio of 1.14:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, December copper is the out performer with a gain of 1.13%, December palladium -1.00%, December gold -1.59%, December silver -4.24%, January 2015 platinum -6.79%.

Year to date, December palladium is the out performer with a gain of 6.11%, December gold -1.34%, December copper -9.31%, January 2015 platinum -12.03%, December silver -16.57%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the December Canadian dollar advanced 39 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 4,141 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,372 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Canadian dollar by ratio of 3.37:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.17:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.99:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the December Australian dollar advanced 1.24 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 2,353 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,176 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Australian dollar by ratio of 1.47:1, which is about the same as the previous week of 1.46:1, but above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.32:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the December Swiss franc advanced 87 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 465 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,166 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio of 3.32:1, which is above the ratio of the previous week of 3.14:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.57:1.

British pound:

For the week, the December British pound lost 1.83 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 533 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,692 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the British pound by ratio of 1.49:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.60:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.78:1.

Euro:

For the week, the December euro advanced 84 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 737 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 10,277 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 3.35:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.49:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.39:1.

Yen:

For the week, the December yen lost 128 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 5,752 contracts to their long positions and also added 11,075 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by ratio 2.61:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.74:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.64:1.

During the past week, the December yen made a new contract low of .8561.

Dollar index:

For the week, the December dollar index lost 13 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 609 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,432 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 1.14:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.22:1 and a complete reversal from the ratio of 2 weeks ago when leveraged funds were long the dollar index by ratio of 1.42:1.

During the past week, the December dollar index made a new contract high of 88.360.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, the December dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 1.81%, December Australian dollar +0.48%, December Swiss franc -0.48%, December Canadian dollar -0.57%, December euro -0.85%, December British pound -3.18%, December yen -5.71%.

Year to date, the December dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 8.59%, December Australian dollar +0.17%, December British pound -5.07%, December Canadian dollar -5.09%, December Swiss franc -7.63%, December euro -9.19%, December yen -9.69%.

S&P 500 (250):

For the week, the December S&P 500 futures contract advanced 12.00 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 2,480 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,249 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 1.67:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.36:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.31:1.

During the past week, new all-time highs were made in the S&P 500 cash index of 2046.18 and in the Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index of 17,705.48. The NASDAQ 100 cash index made a new high of 4228.68.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, the Russell 2000 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 6.55%, S&P 400 cash index +4.37%, NASDAQ 100 cash index +4.34%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +3.47%, S&P 500 cash index +3.42%, New York Composite cash index +1.66%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 17.62%, S&P 500 cash index +10.36%, S&P 400 cash index +6.58%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +6.38%, New York Composite cash index +4.62%, Russell 2000 cash index +0.87%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.