For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

The time frame for this week’s Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, November 12 through Tuesday, November 18.

Soybeans:

For the week, January soybeans advanced 16.50 cents, March 2015 +15.75, May 2015+15.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,241 contracts of their long positions and added 1,874 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 15,018 contracts to their long positions and also added 13,545 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio of 1.69:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.86:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.51:1.

As we indicated in last weekend’s report, we didn’t think managed money was going to support higher prices in soybeans. The current COT report is further confirmation that managed money is disillusioned with soybeans and is beginning to liquidate long positions and initiate short positions.The November 18 report shows that managed money is net long by 45,790 contracts, which is only 5,849 contracts above the September 30 report.From September 30 through November 18, January soybeans have advanced $1.02, yet managed money has increased their net long position by less than 6,000 contracts. Additionally, commercial interests have assumed a net short position recently after being net long for several weeks prior.We think the high for the move of 10.86 1/4 made during the week of November 10 is likely the high going forward. Clients should begin to position themselves on the bearish side of the market and we would abandon this stance if January soybeans make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot points of 10.33 3/4, and 10.46 1/4, which would trigger an intermediate term buy signal.

From the November 16 Weekend Wrap:

“From September 30 through November 11 (which is the most recent COT report), managed money has gone from a net long position of 39,941 contracts on September 30 to a net long position of 54,905 on November 11, or an increase of just 14,964 contracts during the time when January soybeans advanced 1.42 3/4, or 15.50%. In our view, this indicates a high degree of skepticism about the rally by managed money and especially about the continuation of it.”

“In short, we do not think managed money is going to be a supporter of higher soybean prices. Eliminating this category as a major buyer is problematic for soybean prices going forward.As we have said in previous reports, we think the rally in soybeans is on borrowed time and the inability of soybeans to generate an intermediate term buy signal underscores the internal weakness of the market. Remarkably, it is Chicago wheat that has generated the intermediate term buy signal even though the fundamentals for soybeans are more favorable.”

Soybean meal:

For the week, December 2014 soybean meal lost $1.50, March 2015 +2.20, May 2015+4.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,625 contracts of their long positions and added 2,964 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,106 contracts to their long positions and also added 185 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by ratio of 4.00:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 4.85:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.52:1. Three weeks ago managed money was long soybean meal by ratio of 3.16:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, December 2014 soybean oil advanced 49 points, March 2015 +46, May 2015 + 40. The COT report revealed that managed money added 658 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,908 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 635 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 4,372 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by ratio of 1.11:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.16:1 and down sharply from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.46:1.

Corn:

For the week, December 2014 corn lost 9.00 cents, March 2015 -9.00, May 2015-8.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 42 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 326 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 5,425 contracts to their long positions and also added 24,748 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by ratio 2.59:1, which is exactly the same ratio as the previous week of 2.59:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.15:1.

Chicago wheat:

For the week, December 2014 Chicago wheat lost 13.25 cents, March 2015 -9.25, May 2015-9.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,537 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 16,129 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,756 contracts to their long positions and also added 14,268 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by ratio of 1.15:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 1.36:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.37:1.

The current ratio of 1.15:1, is the lowest since the COT report of June 10, 2014 when managed money was short by ratio 1.20:1.This week’s ratio was reduced primarily by the liquidation of short positions rather than a significant addition to long positions.

As we indicated in last week’s report, much of the rally in Chicago wheat has been due to the liquidation of short positions by managed money. During the week of November 10, March Chicago wheat made a high of 5.671/2, which was the high print since the week of September 1 (5.84). We continue to think that Chicago wheat will struggle at these levels, and in order for the market to move higher, shorts must continue covering and new buying must take place. March Chicago wheat remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal.

From the November 16 Weekend Wrap:

“We view the Chicago wheat market as a potential squeeze play due to the large net short position of managed money. The fundamentals for the market are terrible and exports have been abysmal. Yet Chicago wheat continues to climb a wall of worry and has been outperforming Kansas City wheat by a large margin (+17.32% versus 8.51% thus far in the 4th quarter).From September 30 through November 11, December Chicago wheat has advanced 47.50 cents. In this time frame, the net short position of managed money has gone from 66,611 contracts on September 30 to 30,338 on November 11.This week, December Chicago wheat closed at 5.60 1/2, which is the highest weekly close since June 30.”

“We think the market will struggle beyond 5.71 1/2, and for the rally to continue, the December contract must make a low above this pivot point.We do not see December Chicago wheat trading much above 5.90. Once a sufficient number of short sellers have been blown out, the rally will peter out and the downtrend will resume.”

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, December Kansas City wheat lost 1.50 cents, March 2015 -1.25, May 2015-2.25. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,320 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 4,178 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 304 contracts of their long positions and added 2,518 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 1.56:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.44:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.65:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, January soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 23.47%, March corn +15.52%, March Chicago wheat +12.84%, January soybeans +12.78%, March Kansas City wheat +8.06%, January soybean oil +0.46%.

Year to date, January soybean meal is the out performer with a gain of 4.76%, January soybeans -8.90%, March Kansas City wheat -10.17%, March Chicago wheat -14.68%, March corn -16.43%, January soybean oil -18.59%.

Cotton:

For the week, March 2015 cotton, lost 11 points, May 2015 -21, July 2015 -17. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,179 contracts of their long positions and added 16,613 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 348 contracts of their long positions and liquidated 13,581 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by ratio of 1.01:1, which is down sharply from the previous week of 1.7:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.54:1.

During this past week, March May and July 2015 cotton made new contract lows of 58.74, 59.65 and 60.60 respectively.

Sugar #11:

For the week, March 2015 sugar advanced 19 points, May 2015+24, July 2015 +24. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,049 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,190 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 9,203 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,281 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remain short sugar by ratio 1.31:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.34:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.37:1.

Coffee:

For the week, March 2015 coffee lost 5.65 cents, May 2015 -5.70, July 2015 -5.65. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,818 contracts to their long positions and also added 626 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,485 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 126 contracts of their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by ratio of 6.00:1, which is down from the previous week of 6.29:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 6.73:1.

Cocoa:

For the week, March cocoa advanced $25.00, May 2015+27.00, July 2015 +26.00. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,689 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,519 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 183 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,948 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by ratio 3.43:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.11:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.70:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, March cotton is the out performer with a loss of 1.54%, March sugar -2.19%, March coffee -3.42%, March cocoa -13.41%.

Year to date, March coffee is the out performer with a gain of 54.98%, March cocoa +5.18%, March sugar -9.35%, March cotton -24.62%.

Live cattle:

For the week, December live cattle advanced 70 points, February 2015 +88, April 2015 +1.17 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,818 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,117 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,737 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,620 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by ratio of 11.28:1, which is up from the previous week of 9.81:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 10.87:1.

During the past week, December 2014, February 2015 and April 2015 live cattle made new contract highs of 1.7180, 1.7275, 1.7110 respectively.

Lean hogs:

For the week, December lean hogs lost 2.02 cents, February 2015 -2.30, April 2015 -90 points. The COT report revealed that managed money added 5,676 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 836 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,591 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 758 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long lean hogs by ratio of 4.43:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.87:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.67:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, February live cattle is the out performer with a gain of 5.26%, December live cattle +4.65%, February lean hogs -0.22%, December lean hogs -4.28%.

Year to date, February live cattle is the out performer with a gain of 30.32%, December live cattle +29.64%, December lean hogs +14.03%, February lean hogs +12.29%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, January 2015 WTI crude oil advanced 69 cents, February 2015 +80, March 2015 +87. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 19,732 contracts of their long positions and added 1,157 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 15,619 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 29,333 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio 3.62:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.97:1, but up slightly from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.54:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, January 2015 heating oil lost 38 points, February 2015 -9 March 2015 + 16. The COT report revealed that managed money added 561 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,646 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 15,008 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 12,273 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by ratio of 1.47:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.63:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.71:1.

During the past week, January heating oil made a new contract low of 2.0220.

Gasoline:

For the week, January gasoline advanced 2.23 cents, February 2015 +2.29, March 2015 +2.22. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,838 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,167 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 11,825 contracts to their long positions and also added 18,275 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio of 2.34:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.94:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.84:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, January 2015 natural gas advanced 28.8 cents, February 2015 +28.4, March 2015 +29.2. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,266 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 6,976 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 16,947 contracts to their long positions and also added 12,818 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long natural gas by ratio of 1.10:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.05:1 and a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when managed money was short natural gas by ratio of 1.01:1.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, January ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 19.29%, January natural gas +3.46%, January heating oil -10.77%, January gasoline -14.14%, January WTI crude oil -14.91%, January Brent crude oil -16.13%.

Year to date, January ethanol is the out performer with a gain of 13.54%, January natural gas +0.07%, January WTI crude oil -16.63%, January heating oil -19.96%, January gasoline -20.97%, January Brent crude oil -23.98%.

Copper:

For the week, December copper lost 1.50 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,543 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,148 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,380 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,450 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains short copper by ratio of 1.04:1, which is down fractionally from the previous week of 1.05:1 and down sharply from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.18:1.

Palladium:  December palladium will generate a short-term buy signal if the low the day is above OIA’s key pivot point of $785.90.

For the week, December palladium advanced $23.55. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 218 contracts of their long positions and added 180 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 144 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 958 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio 9.21:1, which is down from the previous week of 10.21:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 11.89:1.

Platinum: January platinum will generate a short-term buy signal if the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point of $1238.8

For the week, January 2015 platinum advanced $14.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 383 contracts of their long positions and added 2,550 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 91 contracts to their long positions and also added 212 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long platinum by ratio of 1.71:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.04:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.90:1.

Gold: December gold will generate a short-term buy signal if the low the day is above OIA’s key pivot point of $1201.30

For the week, December gold advanced $12.10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 9,088 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 8,697 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,279 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,668 contracts to their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by ratio of 1.68:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.38:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.52:1.

Silver: December silver will generate a short-term buy signal if the low the day is above OIA’s key pivot point of $16.551.

For the week, December silver advanced 8.1 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 153 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,388 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,560 contracts to their long positions and also added 13,2014 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 1.13:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.05:1 and a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when managed money was short silver by ratio of 1.03:1.

It has been quite a while since silver, gold and platinum were close to generating short-term buy signals at nearly the same time. Since making its contract low on November 7 through November 21, December silver is the out performer having gained 4.29% versus December gold gaining 2.03%. December palladium advanced 2.16% while January platinum increased by 0.80% in the same time frame.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, December palladium is the out performer with a gain of 2.15%, December copper +0.90%, December gold -0.74%, December silver -3.47%, January platinum -5.65%.

Year to date, December palladium is the out performer with a gain of 9.49%, December gold -0.49%, December copper -9.52%, January platinum -10.96%, December silver – 15.90%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the December Canadian dollar advanced 35 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 981 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,657 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Canadian dollar by ratio of 3.41:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.37:1, but down sharply from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.17:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the December Australian dollar lost 91 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 3,079 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,668 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Australian dollar by ratio 1.56:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.47:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.46:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the December Swiss franc lost 1.19 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 94 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 594 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio 3.23:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.32:1, but up slightly from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.14:1.

British pound:

For the week, the December British pound lost 34 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 170 contracts of their long positions and added 10,228 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the British pound by ratio of 1.15:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.49:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.60:1.

Euro:

For the week, the December euro lost 1.39 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 2,916 contracts of their long positions and added 2,106 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 3.58:1, which is above the previous week’s ratio 3.35:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.49:1.

Yen:

For the week, the December yen lost 114 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 338 contracts to their long positions and also added 10,857 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by ratio of 2.87:1, which is above the previous week’s ratio of 2.61:1, and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.74:1.

During the past week, the December yen made a new contract low of .8406.

Dollar index:

For the week, the December dollar index gained 81 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 1,318 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,028 of their short positions.As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 1.05:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.14:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.22:1.

During the past week, the December dollar index made a new contract high of 88.480.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, the December dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 2.72%, December Canadian dollar -0.18%, December Australian dollar – 0.56%, December Swiss franc – 1.61%, December euro -1.95%, December British pound -3.39%, December yen -6.91%.

Year to date, the December dollar index is the out performer with a gain of 9.55%, December Australian dollar -0.87%, December Canadian dollar -4.72%, December British pound -5.27%, December Swiss franc -8.69%, December euro -10.20%, December yen -10.84%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the December S&P 500 futures contract advanced 23.80 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 2,032 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,064 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 1.50:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.67:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.36:1.

During the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index made a new all-time high of 17,894.83. The NASDAQ 100 made a new high for the move of 4285.27. The S&P 500 cash index made a new all-time high of 2071.46. The S&P 400 cash index made a new all-time high of 1452.46.

Thus far in the 4th quarter, the Russell 2000 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 6.42%, S&P 400 cash index +5.36%, NASDAQ 100 cash index +4.99%, S&P 500 cash index +4.62%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +4.50%, New York Composite cash index +3.02%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out former with a gain of 18.36%, S&P 500 cash index +11.64%, S&P 400 cash index +7.59%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index + 7.44%, New York Composite cash index +6.01%, Russell 2000 cash index + 0.75%.