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On September 30, the USDA will release its quarterly grain stocks report.

The time frame for this week’s Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, September 17 through Tuesday, September 23.

On September 22, the Greenhaven Continuous Commodity index made a new low for the move of 24.68, which is the lowest print since July 6, 2010 (24.61).

Soybeans:

For the week, November soybeans lost 46.75 cents, January 2015 -46.50, March 2015 -45.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 824 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,216 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 12,694 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,484 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybeans by ratio 1.30:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.24:1 and up substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.10:1. Commercial interests increased their long positions to a ratio of 1.30:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.25:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.16:1.

Despite the continued bear market in soybeans, commercial interests are adding to their long positions.

During the past week, November, January 2015 in March 2015 soybean contracts made new contract lows of  9.09 3/4, 9.18 1/4, and 9.26 1/2 respectively.

The next support for November soybeans is the June 8, 2010 low of $8.96 1/2 and after that, the March 2, 2009 low of 8.39. The most significant low made in soybeans occurred on December 5, 2008 at 7.78 7/8 when the financial crisis was at its apex. It appears the June 8, 2010 low is going to be taken out shortly unless there is a surprise in the September 30 quarterly grain stocks report.

Soybean meal:

For the week, October soybean meal lost $16.90, December -14.30, January 2015 -14.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,450 contracts to their long positions and also added 194 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 276 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,455 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long soybean meal by ratio of 2.20:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 2.17:1, but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.68:1.

During the past week, October, December and January 2015 soybean meal contracts made new contract lows of 306.20, 300.60, 298.50 respectively.

Soybean oil:

For the week, October soybean oil lost 54 points, December -59, January 2015 -56. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,220 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 6,554 their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 983 contracts of their long positions and added 11,837 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean oil by ratio of 1.09:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.20:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.32:1.

Corn:

For the week, December corn lost 8.50 cents, March 2015 -8.50, May 2015-8.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 7,155 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,420 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,343 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,551 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long corn by ratio of 1.34:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.36:1, but up slightly from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.32:1.

During the past week, December, March 2015 and May 2015 corn contracts made new contract lows of 3.22 3/4,  3.35 1/4,  3.44 respectively.

The next support area for corn is the June 28, 2010 low of 3.00 1/4. After this, the low of 2.90 made on December 5, 2008 at the height of the financial crisis

Chicago wheat:

For the week, December Chicago wheat lost 0.25 cents, March 2015 – 3.50, May 2015-5.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,317 contracts to their long positions and also added 14,861 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,853 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,360 of their short positions.As of the latest report, managed money is short Chicago wheat by ratio of 1.91:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.80:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.78:1.

During the past week, December, March 2015, May 2015 Chicago wheat contracts made new contract lows of 4.66 1/4, 4.80, 4.89 1/2 respectively.

The next support area for Chicago wheat is the June 7, 2010 and September 9, 2009 lows of 4.31

Kansas City wheat:

For the week, December Kansas City wheat advanced 3.50 cents, March 2015 +1.00, May 2015+0.25. The COT. Report revealed that managed money added 120 contracts to their long positions and also added 962 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,264 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 247 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 1.23:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.26:1 and down substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.51:1.

The current ratio of 1.23:1, is the lowest recorded during the current bear market. 

During the past week, December, March 2015, May 2015 Kansas City wheat contracts made new contract lows of 5.53 1/2, 5.58 1/4, 5.61 1/4 respectively.

Support for December Kansas City wheat comes in at the June 2010 low of 4.55 1/4.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter December soybean meal is the out performer with a loss of 18.05%, December soybean oil -18.29%, December Kansas City wheat -20.21%, December Chicago wheat -20.73%, November soybeans -21.34%, December corn -24.04%.

Year to date, December soybean meal is the out performer with a loss of 13.92%, December Kansas City wheat -15.76%, November soybeans -19.80%, December soybean oil -20.16%, December Chicago wheat -25.96%, December corn -28.26%.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton lost 2.50 cents, March 2015 -2.83, May 2015-2.83. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,243 contracts of their long positions and added 2,706 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,391 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 6,475 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money remains long cotton by ratio of 1.15:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.33:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.22:1.

During the past week, December, March 2015 in May 2015 contracts made new contract lows of 60.58, 60.83, and 60.28 respectively.

Sugar #11:

For the week, October sugar advanced 1.91 cents, March 2015 +76 points, May 2015+56. The COT report revealed that managed money added 4,049 contracts to their long positions and also added 10,996 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 18,620 contracts to their long positions and also added 24,577 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by a ratio of 1.19:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.16:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.08:1.

The current ratio of 1.19:1, is the highest recorded during the current bear market. 

During the past week, March 2015 and May 2015 contracts made new contract lows of 15.51 and 15.97 respectively

Coffee:

For the week, December coffee advanced 8.05 cents, March 2015 +8.05, May 2015+8.05. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,391 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 286 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,038 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,291 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by ratio of 4.91:1, which is down from the previous week of 5.01:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 6.84:1.

The current ratio of 4.91:1 is the lowest since the COT reporting date of July 22 when managed money was long coffee by ratio of 4.64:1.

Cocoa:

For the week, December cocoa advanced $52.00, March 2015 +47.00, May 2015+46.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 817 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,939 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,607 contracts to their long positions and also added 9,754 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by a ratio of 4.83:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 4.15:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.07:1.

It should be noted that the primary reason for the increase in this week’s ratio was due to the liquidation of short positions rather than the addition of new long positions. 

During the past week, December, March 2015 May 2015 contracts made new contract highs of 3,399, 3,349, and 3,323 respectively.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, December cocoa is the out performer with a gain of 5.95%, December coffee +4.11%, March 2015 sugar -13.84%,December cotton -15.81%.

Year to date, December coffee is the out performer with a gain of 54.91%, December cocoa +22.09%, March 2015 sugar -6.70%, December cotton -21.09%.

 Live cattle:

For the week, October live cattle advanced 2.83 cents, December +3.40, February 2015 +1.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 565 contracts of their long positions and added 1,769 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,845 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 8,439 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by ratio of 9.35:1, which is down from the previous week of 10.85:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 10.53:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, October lean hogs advanced 55 points, December -38, February 2015 -1.90 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money added 152 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 627 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 356 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 126 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by ratio of 6.74:1, which is up from the previous week of 6.31:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 5.09:1.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, December live cattle is the out performer with a gain of 5.23%, October live cattle +3.24%, December lean hogs -4.18%, October lean hogs -6.47%.

Year to date, October lean hogs is the out performer with a gain of 27.19%, December live cattle +22.97%, October live cattle +20.86%, December lean hogs +18.84%.

WTI crude oil:

For the week, November WTI crude oil advanced $1.89, December +1.48, January 2015 +1.10. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 12,451 contracts of their long positions and added 2,230 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,384 contracts of their long positions and added 11,331 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio of 3.75:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.05:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.75:1.

The current ratio of 3.75:1 is the lowest going back to September 3, 2013. 

Heating oil:

For the week, October heating oil lost 1.61 cents, November -2.04, December -2.21. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 464 contracts of their long positions and added 4,209 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,478 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,620 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by ratio of 1.90:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.71:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.68:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, October gasoline advanced 5.05 cents, November -3.89, December -4.92. The COT report revealed that managed money added 3,002 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 795 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,327 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 4,328 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio of 1.32:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.21:1 but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.52:1.

Last week’s ratio of 1.21:1 is the lowest recorded in the current bear market.

Natural gas:

For the week, October natural gas advanced 14.7 cents, November +12.6, December +12.2. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 8,550 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 10,012 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 37,891 of their long positions and also liquidated 35,382 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long natural gas by ratio of 1.04:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.02:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.03:1. Commercial interests are long natural gas by ratio of 1.008:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.02:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.03:1.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, November ethanol is unchanged and the out performer, November WTI -9.34%, November natural gas -9.83%, November heating oil -9.98%, November gasoline -10.8%, November Brett crude oil -12.83%.

Year to date, November WTI is the out performer with a gain of +0.10%, November natural gas -4.16%, November gasoline -5.00%, November ethanol -6.51%, November Brent crude oil -9.18%, November heating oil -9.65%.

Copper:

For the week, December copper lost 5.60 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,234 contracts of their long positions and added 10,885 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,568 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,087 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by ratio 1.39:1, which is a complete reversal from the previous week when they were long by ratio of 1.02:1. Two weeks ago, managed money was short copper by ratio of 1.07:1.

Palladium:

For the week, December palladium lost $28.80. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 5,626 contracts of their long positions and added 1,186 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 140 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 871 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio of 7.55:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 16.35:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 12.33:1.

Platinum:

For the week, January platinum lost $38.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,769 contracts of their long positions and added 2,342 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 650 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,227 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by ratio of 2.34:1, which is down substantially from the previous week of 3.26:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.07:1.

During the past week, January 2015 platinum made a new contract low of $1,299.20.

Gold:

For the week, December gold lost $1.20. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,232 contracts of their long positions and added 6,933 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,626 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 518 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by ratio of 1.38:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.55:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.03:1.

The current ratio 1.38:1 is the lowest since the January 14, 2014 COT tabulation date when managed money was long gold by ratio of 1.37:1.

Silver:

For the week, December silver lost 30.7 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,025 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,638 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 32 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 877 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short silver by ratio of 1.03:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.04:1 and a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when managed money was long silver by ratio of 1.11:1.

During the past week, December silver made a new contract low of $17.270

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, December copper is the out performer with a loss of -5.12%, December palladium – 7.26%, December gold -8.35%, January 2015 platinum -12.17%, December silver – 16.50%.

Year to date, December palladium is the out performer with a gain of 8.29%, December gold +1.02%, January 2015 platinum -5.52%,December copper -9.55%, December silver -9.65%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the December Canadian dollar lost 1.58 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 9,221 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,851 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Canadian dollar by ratio of 1.65:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.14:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.02:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the December Australian dollar lost 1.68 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 2,276 contracts of their long positions and added 1,630 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the Australian dollar by ratio of 2.36:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.65:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.93:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the December Swiss franc lost 1.21 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 4,045 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 2,406 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio of 2.18:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.72:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.99:1.

British pound:

For the week, the December British pound lost 59 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 210 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 6,177 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the British pound by ratio of 2.00:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.72:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.99:1.

Euro:

For the week, the December euro lost 1.55 cents. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 18,611 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 11,894 their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 2.76:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.27:1 and about the same as the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.75:1.

During the past week, the December euro made a new contract low of 1.2683.

Yen:

For the week, the December yen lost 37 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 6,575 contracts of their long positions and added 10,680 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by a ratio of 4.09:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 3.07:1, but only slightly above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.00:1.

During the past week, the December yen made a new contract low of .9130.

Dollar index:

For the week, the December dollar index gained 90 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 653 contracts to their long positions and also added 509 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the dollar index by ratio of 1.16:1, which is the same as the previous week of 1.16:1, but a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when leveraged funds were short the dollar index by ratio of 1.51:1.

During the past week, the December dollar index made a new contract high of 85.82.

The next area of resistance for the December dollar index is the June 7, 2010 high of 88.800.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, the December dollar index is the out performer with a gain of +7.31%, December Canadian dollar -4.19%, December British pound -4.90%, December Australian dollar -6.52%, December Swiss franc -6.88%, December yen           – 7.35%, December euro -7.40%.

Year to date, the December dollar index is the out performer with a gain of +6.32%, December Australian dollar -0.16%, December British pound -1.66%, December yen -3.88%, December Canadian dollar -4.13%, December Swiss franc – 6.84%, December euro -8.02%.

 S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the December S&P 500 futures contract lost of 27.90 points. The  COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 9,836 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 15,440 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 1.02:1 , which is down from the previous week of 1.37:1 and dramatically down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.52:1.

Thus far in the 3rd quarter, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of + 5.31%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index + 1.70%, S&P 500 cash index +1.15%, New York Composite cash index -1.64%, S&P 400 cash index – 3.26%, Russell 2000 cash index -6.17%.

Year to date, the NASDAQ 100 cash index is the out performer with a gain of 12.85%, S&P 500 cash index + 7.28%, New York Composite cash index +3.83%, S&P 400 cash index +3.25%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +3.24%, Russell 2000 cash index -3.81%.