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The Year End review is being published on a delayed basis due to the late release of the Commitment of Traders Report..

The time frame for the current Commitments of Traders report is from Wednesday, December 24 through Tuesday, December 30.

Soybeans: On January 2, 2015, March soybeans generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

For the week, March soybeans lost 46.50 cents, May -46.25, July -45.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 549 contracts of their long positions and added 5,144 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 19,093 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 17,350 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio 1.80:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.96:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.89:1.

Soybean meal: On January 2, 2015, March soybean meal generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, March soybean meal lost $21.40, May -19.00, July -17.60. The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,797 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,264 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 11,724 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 5,390 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by ratio of 3.05:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.83:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.63:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, March soybean oil lost 50 points, May -54, July -56.The COT report revealed that managed money added 7,613 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 7,417 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,520 of their long positions and added 8,097 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean oil by ratio of 1.80:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 1.39:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.33:1.

Note the ratio of longs to shorts in soybean oil is identical to that soybeans, yet soybeans have dramatically outperformed soybean oil during the 4th quarter and year to date.

Corn:

For the week, March corn lost 19.00 cents, May -18.50, July -18.50. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,335 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,762 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 8,973 contracts to their long positions and also added 18,366 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by ratio of 4.50:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.75:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.94:1.

Chicago wheat: On January 2, 2015, March Chicago wheat generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, March Chicago wheat lost 29.50 cents, May -20.00, July -27.50. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 1,525 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 699 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 4,266 to their long positions and liquidated 6,034 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Chicago wheat by ratio 1.33:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.34:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.23:1.

Kansas City wheat: On January 2, 2015, March Chicago wheat generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

For the week, March Kansas City wheat lost 27.25 cents, May -27.00, July -29.75. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 495 contracts of their long positions and added 52 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 986 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,610 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long Kansas City wheat by ratio of 3.12:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 3.18:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.54:1.

During the 4th quarter, March Chicago wheat was the out performer with a gain of 20.23%, March corn +19.04%, March soybean meal +17.55%, March Kansas City wheat +11.53%, March soybeans +10.08%, March soybean oil -2.37%.

During 2014, March soybean meal was the out performer with a loss of 1.14%, March Kansas City wheat -7.29%, March Chicago wheat -9.09%, March soybeans -10.57%, March corn -13.88%, March soybean oil -20.74%.

Cotton:

For the week, March cotton lost 2.05 cents, May -1.94, July -1.79.The COT report revealed that managed money added 939 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,887 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 658 contracts of their long positions and added 1,968 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by ratio of 1.41:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.31:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.04:1.

Sugar #11:

For the week, March sugar lost 53 points, May -50, July -49.The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 37 contracts of their long positions and added 8,142 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,331 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,287 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short sugar by ratio 1.39:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.34:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.37:1.

The current ratio of 1.39:1 is the highest recorded during the bear market in sugar, which began in June 2014.

Coffee:

For the week, March coffee lost 7.55 cents, May -7.50, July -7.40. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 283 contracts of their long positions and added 2,835 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,082 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,614 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long coffee by 2.90:1, which is down dramatically from the previous week of 3.77:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.68:1.

The current ratio of 2.90:1 is the lowest since the COT report of February 25, 2014 when managed money was long coffee by ratio of 3.00:1.

December 30 was the 5th COT report in which commercials added to long positions and liquidated short positions. Combining the current stats with the previous 4 reports, commercial interests have added a total of 12,127 contracts to long positions and liquidated 7,380 of their short positions. We think this points to higher prices ahead and the extremely low bullish position of managed money bodes well for future price advances. Managed money has a tendency to the most bullish/bearish at major turning points.

Cocoa:

For the week, March cocoa lost $14.00, May -8.00, July -1.00.The COT report revealed that managed money added 2,592 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,793 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 124 contracts of their long positions and added 1,441 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cocoa by ratio of 3.87:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.14:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.71:1.

Commercials continue to add to long positions and liquidate short positions, which in our view dampens bullish prospects for cocoa in the short-term.At the same time, managed money has a relatively large long position in the market.The 4th quarter stats tell the story (see below).

During the 4th quarter, March cotton was the out performer with a loss of 0.30%, March cocoa -10.71%, March sugar -11.73%, March coffee -15.62%.

During 2014, March coffee was the out performer with a gain of 35.39%, March cocoa +8.46%, March sugar -18.20%, March cotton -23.67%.

Live cattle:

For the week, February live cattle advanced 3.20 cents, April +3.10, June +4.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,253 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,040 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 142 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,351 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long live cattle by ratio of 11.40:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 8.93:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 10.54:1.

Lean hogs:

For the week, February lean hogs lost 25 points, April -70, June +1.23 cents. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 740 contracts of their long positions and added 3,742 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,257 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 2,162 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long lean hogs by ratio 2.41:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.86:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.29:1.

The very low long position of managed money is occurring at the time when lean hog prices are at their lowest level since October 2013.

During the 4th quarter, April live cattle was the out performer with a gain of 1.05%, February cattle +0.90%, April lean hogs -8.73%, February lean hogs -10.62%.

During 2014, February live cattle was the out performer with a gain of 24.92%, April live cattle +23.08%, April lean hogs +1.16%, February lean hogs +0.59%.

WTI crude oil:

February WTI crude oil lost $2.04, March -2.02, April -1.90. The February, March and April contracts made contract lows of 52.03, 52.46, and 52.99 respectively.The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,977 contracts to their long positions and also added 8,389 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 1,110 contracts of their long positions and added 3,890 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long WTI crude oil by ratio of 4.00:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.56:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.53:1.

Heating oil:

For the week, February heating oil lost 8.85 cents, March -8.07, April -7.62. The March and April contracts made new contract lows of 1.7740 and 1.7620 respectively.The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 2,236 of their long positions and added 2,259 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,459 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 532 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short heating oil by ratio of 1.86:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.67:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.60:1.

It is puzzling that managed money is massively short heating oil, which is outperforming both WTI and gasoline during the 4th quarter and year to date. Yet, they are massively long the under performers.

Gasoline:

For the week, February gasoline lost 9.13 cents, March -8.65, April -7.56. The February, March and April contracts made new contract lows of 1.4244, 1.4577, and 1.6748 respectively. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,916 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 52 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 12,008 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 12,111 of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by ratio of 3.21:1, which is down from the previous week of 3.39:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.50:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, February natural gas lost 3.0 cents, March -4.2, April -4.7. The February, March and April contracts made new contract lows of 2.805, 2.810, and 2.801 respectively.The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 3,098 contracts of their long positions and added 6,417 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,974 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,534 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short natural gas by ratio 1.24:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.19:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.15:1.

The current ratio of 1.24:1 is the highest of the bear market, which began the week of November 24, 2014.

During the 4th quarter, February ethanol was the out performer with a gain of 2.26%, February heating oil -30.55%, February natural gas -31.20%, February gasoline -38.00%, February Brent crude oil -39.34%, February WTI crude oil -39.77%.

During 2014, ethanol on the continuation chart was the out performer with a loss of 14.86%, natural gas -33.19%, heating oil -37.53%, WTI crude oil -40.96%, gasoline -43.00%, Brent crude oil -48.11%.

Copper:

For the week, March copper advanced 35 points. The March contract made a new contract low of 2.7560. The COT report revealed that managed money liquidated 284 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 6 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,528 to their long positions and also added 710 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by ratio of 1.13:1, which is up slightly from the previous week of 1.12:1 and down slightly from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.14:1.

Palladium:

For the week, March palladium lost $23.75. The COT report revealed that managed money added 379 contracts to their long positions and also added 221 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 294 contracts of their long positions and added 140 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by ratio 12.99:1, which is down from the previous week of 14.74:1, but up substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 9.48:1.

Platinum:

For the week, April platinum lost $16.00. The COT report revealed that managed money added 928 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 177 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 88 contracts to their long positions and also added 442 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by ratio of 2.30:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.20:1 and up slightly from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.29:1.

Gold:

For the week, February gold lost $9.10. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,841 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,012 of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,246 contracts of their long positions and added 331 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by ratio of 3.30:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.01:1 but down from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.57:1.

Silver:

For the week, March silver lost 37.9 cents.The COT report revealed that managed money added 547 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,509 of their short positions. Commercial interests added 96 contracts to their long positions and also added 928 to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long silver by ratio of 1.92:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.77:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.74:1.

During the 4th quarter, March palladium was the out performer with a gain of 2.85%, February gold -2.25%, March copper -6.28%, April platinum -7.10%, March silver -8.35%.

During 2014 on the continuation chart, palladium is the out performer with a gain of 10.48%, gold -1.98%, platinum -12.33%, copper -15.65%, silver -19.86%.

Canadian dollar:

For the week, the March Canadian dollar lost 91 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 1,118 contracts of their long positions and added 823 to their short positions.As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Canadian dollar by ratio of 2.19:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.02:1, but down substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.87:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the March Australian dollar gained 2 pips.The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 2,781 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,403 of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Australian dollar by ratio of 1.97:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.84:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.70:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the March Swiss franc lost 1.40 cents.The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 509 contracts to their long positions and also added 2,372 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the Swiss franc by ratio of 2.18:1, which is up from the previous week of 2.06:1 and a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when leveraged funds were long the Swiss franc by ratio of 1.03:1

British pound:

For the week, the March British pound lost 2.25 cents.The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 898 contracts of their long positions and added 2,127 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the British pound by ratio of 1.15:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.05:1, but a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when leveraged funds were long the British pound by ratio of 1.03:1.

Euro:

For the week, the March euro lost 1.72 cents.The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 875 contracts to their long positions and also added 4,664 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by ratio of 6.40:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 6.44:1, but up dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.72:1.

Yen:

For the week, the March yen advanced 2 pips. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 566 contracts of their long positions and added 4,948 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by ratio of 5.86:1, which is up from the previous week of 5.40:1 and up dramatically from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.07:1.

Dollar index:

For the week, the March dollar index advanced 1.07 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds added 1,875 contracts to their long positions and added 12,641 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the dollar index by ratio of 1.47:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 1.15:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.11:1.

Ever since the dollar index generated a short and intermediate term buy signal on July 16, leveraged funds have been short almost every week as the dollar index continues to climb to multi-year highs.

During the 4th quarter, the March dollar index was the out performer with a gain of 5.12%, March Canadian dollar -3.32%, March British pound -3.73%, March Swiss franc -3.98%, March euro -4.25%, March Australian dollar -6.00%, March yen -8.53%.

During 2014 on the continuation chart, the dollar index was the out performer with a gain of 13.40%, British pound -5.86%, Australian dollar -6.30%, Canadian dollar -7.71%, Swiss franc -10.27%, euro -11.99%, yen -12.09%.

S&P 500 (250 x):

For the week, the March S&P 500 futures contract lost 37.90 points. The COT report revealed that leveraged funds liquidated 261 contracts of their long positions and added 1,286 to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 1.31:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.73:1 and a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago when leveraged funds were short the S&P 500 futures contract by ratio of 1.53:1.

During the 4th quarter, the Russell 2000 cash index was the out performer with a gain of 9.35%, S&P 400 cash index +5.94%, NASDAQ 100 cash index +4.61%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index +4.58%, S&P 500 cash index +4.39%, New York Composite cash index +1.27%.

During 2014, the NASDAQ 100 cash index with the out performer with a gain of 17.94%, S&P 500 cash index +11.39%, S&P 400 cash index +8.19%, Dow Jones Industrial Average cash index + 7.52%, New York Composite cash index +4.22%, Russell 2000 cash index +3.53%.